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Post by Russell Letson on Jan 7, 2020 15:23:55 GMT -5
By definition, everything we think we know about the goings on in Iraq/Iran is heavily biased toward the English speakers in those countries. Worse still, it is biased toward English speaking Iraqi and Iranian expats living in places like Washington, New York, London, etc. It was reliance on precisely those Arabic and Farsi competent analysts that lead us into every briar patch we've managed to find. Jeff, even in Debate Club, you don't get to use both sides of an argument to support your proposition. Though if your proposition is "I give zero fucks about understanding," then it doesn't matter where you get your understanding, because it's not about understanding anyway.
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Post by fauxmaha on Jan 7, 2020 15:28:40 GMT -5
By definition, everything we think we know about the goings on in Iraq/Iran is heavily biased toward the English speakers in those countries. Worse still, it is biased toward English speaking Iraqi and Iranian expats living in places like Washington, New York, London, etc. It was reliance on precisely those Arabic and Farsi competent analysts that lead us into every briar patch we've managed to find. Jeff, even in Debate Club, you don't get to use both sides of an argument to support your proposition. Though if your proposition is "I give zero fucks about understanding," then it doesn't matter where you get your understanding, because it's not about understanding anyway. There's no "both sides", and there's no contradiction between the two above quotes.
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Post by brucemacneill on Jan 7, 2020 15:28:51 GMT -5
Peter: Budget cuts and unfilled positions at the State Department. Under Tillerson’s watch, and indeed under his direct purview, the State Department’s core is being gutted. He is running Foggy Bottom the way a corporate raider might take over a company: firing half of its workforce, repurposing its original mission, scaling back its operations across the globe. Offices are being shuttered, while ambassadorial, assistant secretary, and undersecretary posts remain unfilled. Even as North Korea tests intercontinental ballistic missiles, there is no undersecretary for Arms Control and International Security, no permanent assistant secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs or International Security and Nonproliferation, no ambassador to South Korea. That from the National Review, of all places. Part of the Administrative State? Tillerson was fired a couple of years ago.
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Post by aquaduct on Jan 7, 2020 15:41:07 GMT -5
Peter: Budget cuts and unfilled positions at the State Department. Under Tillerson’s watch, and indeed under his direct purview, the State Department’s core is being gutted. He is running Foggy Bottom the way a corporate raider might take over a company: firing half of its workforce, repurposing its original mission, scaling back its operations across the globe. Offices are being shuttered, while ambassadorial, assistant secretary, and undersecretary posts remain unfilled. Even as North Korea tests intercontinental ballistic missiles, there is no undersecretary for Arms Control and International Security, no permanent assistant secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs or International Security and Nonproliferation, no ambassador to South Korea. That from the National Review, of all places. Part of the Administrative State? No. Clearly the academic ivory tower is no place to know how anything works. Every administration comes in and hires the upper level appointees (used to be about 4500 positions, not sure what it is now). The kind of positions described here. I worked for a bunch of them. They come and go and get turned over as a matter of course with each change at the top, where they go back to being high level private sector politicals. The bulk of the positions are the permanent bureaucracy. In until they quit or die. Past one year of service they almost can't be dislodged. And even in Transportation, there were quite a few non-white guys who could speak a number of foreign languages. And as Sidhe pointed out, the military is full of them as I can see at every one of my wife's Christmas parties (great folks by the way).
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Post by Russell Letson on Jan 7, 2020 16:24:37 GMT -5
Peter, the view from the ivory tower is informed by reading pieces in, say, Foreign Affairs and National Review (to avoid depending on Commie rags like the Washington Post and NYT) and by paying attention to a whole range of news and commentary. And the view from those outlets is that the Trump administration has overseen a significant shrinkage in the State Department beyond the usual variations in staffing, and that this includes ambassador-level posts unfilled.
I might lack the x-ray vision and secret decoder ring of an old Beltway DOT hand, but I do know that when you cut deep enough into an organization for long enough, you risk cutting muscle as well as fat, and (to shift the metaphors slightly) you start to lose institutional memory and the replacement parts needed to maintain function.
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Post by brucemacneill on Jan 7, 2020 16:47:12 GMT -5
Peter, the view from the ivory tower is informed by reading pieces in, say, Foreign Affairs and National Review (to avoid depending on Commie rags like the Washington Post and NYT) and by paying attention to a whole range of news and commentary. And the view from those outlets is that the Trump administration has overseen a significant shrinkage in the State Department beyond the usual variations in staffing, and that this includes ambassador-level posts unfilled. I might lack the x-ray vision and secret decoder ring of an old Beltway DOT hand, but I do know that when you cut deep enough into an organization for long enough, you risk cutting muscle as well as fat, and (to shift the metaphors slightly) you start to lose institutional memory and the replacement parts needed to maintain function. I suspect that if you thought about it long enough you might realize that you don't "Know" that. You merely believe it. It is what you were taught.
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Post by dradtke on Jan 7, 2020 17:03:15 GMT -5
Shit's getting personal. Some of his strongest supporters (Netanyahu, Putin, the Saudis) are announcing that they were not consulted and don't support the assassination. And some Iranian tweeted out a link to a list of Trump properties around the world. How many people are going to think twice about checking into a Trump hotel?
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Post by Chesapeake on Jan 7, 2020 17:31:07 GMT -5
Shit's getting personal. Some of his strongest supporters (Netanyahu, Putin, the Saudis) are announcing that they were not consulted and don't support the assassination. And some Iranian tweeted out a link to a list of Trump properties around the world. How many people are going to think twice about checking into a Trump hotel? A retired foreign service officer I know mentioned that just the other day. Fact is (he said), there is a Trump property in one of the 'stans whose occupancy rate is in the basement already. Some Iranian surrogate could blow it up and possibly not even kill anybody, just as a warning shot.
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Post by Russell Letson on Jan 7, 2020 17:31:11 GMT -5
Bruce, believe it or not, I know how to think for myself, how to do research, how to figure stuff out. Your concern is noted, though. As is your condescension.
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Post by dradtke on Jan 7, 2020 17:36:21 GMT -5
Bruce, believe it or not, I know how to think for myself, how to do research, how to figure stuff out. Your concern is noted, though. As is your condescension. "Warden, the prisoners are coming down the stairs," Tom said condescendingly.
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Post by sidheguitarmichael on Jan 7, 2020 18:35:54 GMT -5
A retired foreign service officer I know mentioned that just the other day. Fact is (he said), there is a Trump property in one of the 'stans whose occupancy rate is in the basement already. Some Iranian surrogate could blow it up and possibly not even kill anybody, just as a warning shot. Interesting.
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Post by sidheguitarmichael on Jan 7, 2020 19:03:58 GMT -5
And... fasten up the seat belts. Things are getting salty over there..
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Post by Deleted on Jan 7, 2020 19:15:10 GMT -5
And... fasten up the seat belts. Things are getting salty over there.. Pfft... 10 rockets. When they get more than twenty two in one attack, call me.
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Post by aquaduct on Jan 7, 2020 19:20:19 GMT -5
Peter, the view from the ivory tower is informed by reading pieces in, say, Foreign Affairs and National Review (to avoid depending on Commie rags like the Washington Post and NYT) and by paying attention to a whole range of news and commentary. And the view from those outlets is that the Trump administration has overseen a significant shrinkage in the State Department beyond the usual variations in staffing, and that this includes ambassador-level posts unfilled. I might lack the x-ray vision and secret decoder ring of an old Beltway DOT hand, but I do know that when you cut deep enough into an organization for long enough, you risk cutting muscle as well as fat, and (to shift the metaphors slightly) you start to lose institutional memory and the replacement parts needed to maintain function. Russell, my wife will be in Afghanistan in a couple weeks. I'll ask her to see how many journalists are actually involved with what they take great pride in pontificating on.
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Post by Chesapeake on Jan 7, 2020 19:28:18 GMT -5
You don't need to actually be on the moon to know what's on the moon.
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Post by aquaduct on Jan 7, 2020 19:40:10 GMT -5
You don't need to actually be on the moon to know what's on the moon. Only if it really doesn't matter what is on the moon.
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Post by brucemacneill on Jan 7, 2020 19:41:42 GMT -5
You don't need to actually be on the moon to know what's on the moon. You actually believe that, don't you?
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Post by casualplayerpaul on Jan 7, 2020 19:53:32 GMT -5
The Secretary of State referred to this kind of retaliation as “a little noise” and the President said “if it happens, it happens.”
I would like to take this opportunity to let it be known that I voted for Hillary F@@@ing Clinton.
F@&$k Trump and his nitwit supporters.
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Post by brucemacneill on Jan 7, 2020 20:00:40 GMT -5
The Secretary of State referred to this kind of retaliation as “a little noise” and the President said “if it happens, it happens.” I would like to take this opportunity to let it be known that I voted for Hillary F@@@ing Clinton. F@&$k Trump and his nitwit supporters. Welp, no news there.
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Post by sidheguitarmichael on Jan 7, 2020 20:17:38 GMT -5
Peter, the view from the ivory tower is informed by reading pieces in, say, Foreign Affairs and National Review (to avoid depending on Commie rags like the Washington Post and NYT) and by paying attention to a whole range of news and commentary.. Russell, my wife will be in Afghanistan in a couple weeks. I'll ask her to see how many journalists are actually involved with what they take great pride in pontificating on. I have to go with Peter on this. For the record, I don’t have TV, I don’t subscibe to any newspapers, magazines, or print journals, and I deleted all the news feed apps that came on my ipad and phone. If it’s being fed to me for free, it’s worth what I paid for it. JMO. While I absolutely get the urge to know all the calculus behind decisions that could effect the course of history, I don't think that any of us can make a sound, informed decision on what's going on based solely upon media coverage. That's your call, though. While I do read a ton of articles that come into my inbox each week, they all come from actual, vetted people with verified experience and subject matter expertise on the topic. It really boils down to the author, and what mix of expertise and freedom to comment they bring to the table, and if I trust the vetting. Again, JMO. Possibly worth another thread on how I cultivated my sources, and why I trust them, and why I can have a lot of non-musical knowledge about some aspects of events, and then remain completely clueless on most others. Or not.
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