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Post by RickW on Sept 22, 2017 11:43:15 GMT -5
Really, Peter? I know you trust yourself, but just think of all the asshats out there you'll no longer have to worry about. We had this discussion not that long ago, it's funny, it's getting closer to reality, more folks seem to be accepting it. Bars and restaurants will love it - no worries about drunk driving? Pound down two scotches, then a bottle of wine. This is the great conundrum, Marshall. Work and automation. Driving jobs going away. Retail jobs going away. I have heard that a lot of the top paying jobs, such as accounting and lawyers, are going to be severely reduced because of AI. Yet, right now, we are basically, in most large cities, at 0 unemployment, because even though we have a percentage of people not working, there are jobs going begging. Was reading an article yesterday about fast food restaurants closing because they can't get enough workers. It's going to be a wild ride. Where are the asshats suddenly going to go so that I don't have to deal with them? Self-driving cars are the modern version of the flying car delusion. It's applied technology that really offers no substantial advantage over current technology. Sure, everybody loves it now- when it's free. Check again when folks have to start putting down $20 or $30K to live with it. Nope, not too worried that my beloved F150 that I drive is going anywhere soon. I love driving, too. No question about that. Always have, always will. At times I even like commuting, it's my time, and I like long trips. But no advantages? - A lot of people really don't like to drive. Like my wife and all three daughters.
- Cost? Well, your car is the second most expensive thing you'll buy in your life after your home. Whether people will equate the cost of a 20 to 30 dollar drive with what it costs them to do that in their own vehicle, time will tell.
- if there is an alternative to learning to drive, and parents and their kids don't have to go through all the stress and cost of doing that, there's an excellent chance that many won't bother. By the time I got to my second kid, much less the third one, I could have easily gone without the pleasure.
- For business? Driverless vehicles? Not having troublesome employees to deal with? Every other single type of business that could dispense with people has done so as rapidly as possible.
When I look at the above, I see an excellent chance that this will take off.
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Post by Marshall on Sept 22, 2017 12:14:47 GMT -5
. . . , Where are the asshats suddenly going to go so that I don't have to deal with them? Self-driving cars are the modern version of the flying car delusion. It's applied technology that really offers no substantial advantage over current technology. Sure, everybody loves it now- when it's free. Check again when folks have to start putting down $20 or $30K to live with it. Nope, not too worried that my beloved F150 that I drive is going anywhere soon. It's not really going to affect us. We're too old. It'l take a lot of shake-out before this is commonplace. Though when we're 85 in the nursing home and want to go somewhere, it might be nice to program a ride, instead of getting behind the wheel. But the economics DEFINITELY work out for trucking companies. That Teamster behind the wheel costs a lot. As does that cab/Uber driver. Spending $20-$30k on a vehicle pales in comparison to the cost of a professional driver per year. Of course, when Teamsters get riffed look out for some nasty shenanigans in the process. They ain't going down easy. And I can't say I blame them. It's not going to be all techno wizardry and smiles.
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Post by epaul on Sept 22, 2017 12:33:29 GMT -5
... I used to feel guilty about ordering from Amazon because the fullfillment centers were close to labor camps, extremely low pay to people who were constantly pushed to work harder running up and down isles to pick products off shelves for shipping. That's all gone now. Amazon WarehouseHoly Moly! That's amazing! It also explains why I got a Barbie Doll and a carton of tampons last week instead of the impact wrench and Minnesota Vikings wall calendar I ordered.
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Post by fauxmaha on Sept 22, 2017 12:43:44 GMT -5
There's a sort of weird technology-fetish cult undercurrent that's been running through society for a while now. I'm not sure when it started...(not all that long ago. If I had to date it, I'd put it at the original "dot com" bubble about 20 years ago, back when nerds went from being nerds to being cool)...but it's as if we've become so acclimated to the pace of technological change, we insist on it. And weirder still, we have lost all sense of skepticism when theoretical future tech is "announced". Amazon is never going to deliver packages by drone. Ever. Elon Musk is not going to produce 500,000 cars in 2018. But what interests me is that these examples are not punished by public opinion for floating their fantasies. Quite the opposite. They are revered as "forward thinking", no matter how absurd their claims become. To look at these obviously ridiculous claims with a jaundiced eye is to invite scorn. "What!?!? You're not a True Believer?!?" So it becomes a marketing/branding strategy to announce ridiculous tech advancements, even if they never see the light of day. Amazon went so far as to apply for a patent on their "beehive" drone base concept.
That's not done for any real intellectual property protection. No rational observer thinks Amazon is going to have those things running inside of the patent protection window. Amazon filed that application as an act of pure branding propaganda. They want to create an image of perpetual technological leadership. All that feeds into my evolving thoughts on self driving cars. I think we've been conditioned to look at the hype uncritically. I think companies have a market incentive to promote that hype, far beyond any realistic capability. Given the complexity of the task relative to contexts where existing robotics/automation systems are productive (at least a couple of orders of magnitude greater), I don't think we are nearly as close to this as "they" want us to believe.
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Post by david on Sept 22, 2017 12:47:17 GMT -5
I agree with Rick and Marshall - at 62, I am likely too old for it to have a significant impact on my driving years. I like to drive sometimes, but it would be a nice option other times, such as when I am tired or when traffic is jammed. I am not so self-assured as to think that my driving skills would surpass a well tuned computer. Like most, I consider myself a good driver, but I make mistakes. I have run a red light and I have rear-ended a car and I have hit a deer.
It is going to happen. It will eventually diminish the number of attorneys doing personal injury and drunk driving cases.
And looking into my crystal ball, I see that at some point in the future of humanity it is likely that the majority of people will not do much in terms of producing life's necessities. Machines will produce most of what is needed and most people will just live, probably with some sort of government allowance. There will be work for those who design, program and work on computers and the machines. The rest of humanity will play music and throw pots.
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Post by aquaduct on Sept 22, 2017 12:50:05 GMT -5
But the economics DEFINITELY work out for trucking companies. That Teamster behind the wheel costs a lot. As does that cab/Uber driver. Spending $20-$30k on a vehicle pales in comparison to the cost of a professional driver per year. Of course, when Teamsters get riffed look out for some nasty shenanigans in the process. They ain't going down easy. And I can't say I blame them. It's not going to be all techno wizardry and smiles. Anybody who's ever been actively involved in any part of trucking would know that there's no way in hell drivers will be automated out of the business. It's not a simple A to B equation. The variation of where the truck has to go and how it needs to get there is overwhelming. And that doesn't take into account the handling of the business (loading, unloading, cleaning, paperwork inspection, etc.) that goes into driving a commercial truck guarantees them a job as long as there's shit to move. And Class 8 truck rigs start at about $100K and easily run to half or 3/4 of a million bucks or more worth of commercial asset investment already. Nobody in their right mind will just point that down the road hoping like hell it gets where it's going in decent shape.
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Post by Chesapeake on Sept 22, 2017 12:55:41 GMT -5
I could see that self-driving cars could lead to a spin-off industry: sphincter unfreezing clinics.
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Post by RickW on Sept 22, 2017 13:08:42 GMT -5
There's a sort of weird technology-fetish cult undercurrent that's been running through society for a while now. I'm not sure when it started...(not all that long ago. If I had to date it, I'd put it at the original "dot com" bubble about 20 years ago, back when nerds went from being nerds to being cool)...but it's as if we've become so acclimated to the pace of technological change, we insist on it. And weirder still, we have lost all sense of skepticism when theoretical future tech is "announced". Amazon is never going to deliver packages by drone. Ever. Elon Musk is not going to produce 500,000 cars in 2018. But what interests me is that these examples are not punished by public opinion for floating their fantasies. Quite the opposite. They are revered as "forward thinking", no matter how absurd their claims become. To look at these obviously ridiculous claims with a jaundiced eye is to invite scorn. "What!?!? You're not a True Believer?!?" So it becomes a marketing/branding strategy to announce ridiculous tech advancements, even if they never see the light of day. Amazon went so far as to apply for a patent on their "beehive" drone base concept.
That's not done for any real intellectual property protection. No rational observer thinks Amazon is going to have those things running inside of the patent protection window. Amazon filed that application as an act of pure branding propaganda. They want to create an image of perpetual technological leadership. All that feeds into my evolving thoughts on self driving cars. I think we've been conditioned to look at the hype uncritically. I think companies have a market incentive to promote that hype, far beyond any realistic capability. Given the complexity of the task relative to contexts where existing robotics/automation systems are productive (at least a couple of orders of magnitude greater), I don't think we are nearly as close to this as "they" want us to believe. Have to agree on the drones doing delivery. Damned things can't carry squat. But there are a number of self driving cars being road tested right now, and have millions of miles on them. They work. They apparently work quite well.
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Post by aquaduct on Sept 22, 2017 13:11:13 GMT -5
But there are a number of self driving cars being road tested right now, and have millions of miles on them. They work. They apparently work quite well. So can we assume you'll be among the first to eventually buy one when they become available?
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Post by Marshall on Sept 22, 2017 13:41:47 GMT -5
But the economics DEFINITELY work out for trucking companies. That Teamster behind the wheel costs a lot. As does that cab/Uber driver. Spending $20-$30k on a vehicle pales in comparison to the cost of a professional driver per year. Of course, when Teamsters get riffed look out for some nasty shenanigans in the process. They ain't going down easy. And I can't say I blame them. It's not going to be all techno wizardry and smiles. Anybody who's ever been actively involved in any part of trucking would know that there's no way in hell drivers will be automated out of the business. It's not a simple A to B equation. The variation of where the truck has to go and how it needs to get there is overwhelming. And that doesn't take into account the handling of the business (loading, unloading, cleaning, paperwork inspection, etc.) that goes into driving a commercial truck guarantees them a job as long as there's shit to move. And Class 8 truck rigs start at about $100K and easily run to half or 3/4 of a million bucks or more worth of commercial asset investment already. Nobody in their right mind will just point that down the road hoping like hell it gets where it's going in decent shape. Yeah. I don't know trucking. I believe a driver will always be required for maneuvering in loading docks and city alleys, etc. At least while I'm on the planet. (That being said, your car can parallel park for ya). But long hall driving will be easier for the driver. Take a nap. Wake up for the tight stuff at the end. Like Auto-pilot on an airplane.
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Post by aquaduct on Sept 22, 2017 13:43:21 GMT -5
There's a sort of weird technology-fetish cult undercurrent that's been running through society for a while now. I'm not sure when it started...(not all that long ago. If I had to date it, I'd put it at the original "dot com" bubble about 20 years ago, back when nerds went from being nerds to being cool)...but it's as if we've become so acclimated to the pace of technological change, we insist on it. And weirder still, we have lost all sense of skepticism when theoretical future tech is "announced". Amazon is never going to deliver packages by drone. Ever. Elon Musk is not going to produce 500,000 cars in 2018. But what interests me is that these examples are not punished by public opinion for floating their fantasies. Quite the opposite. They are revered as "forward thinking", no matter how absurd their claims become. To look at these obviously ridiculous claims with a jaundiced eye is to invite scorn. "What!?!? You're not a True Believer?!?" So it becomes a marketing/branding strategy to announce ridiculous tech advancements, even if they never see the light of day. Amazon went so far as to apply for a patent on their "beehive" drone base concept.
That's not done for any real intellectual property protection. No rational observer thinks Amazon is going to have those things running inside of the patent protection window. Amazon filed that application as an act of pure branding propaganda. They want to create an image of perpetual technological leadership. All that feeds into my evolving thoughts on self driving cars. I think we've been conditioned to look at the hype uncritically. I think companies have a market incentive to promote that hype, far beyond any realistic capability. Given the complexity of the task relative to contexts where existing robotics/automation systems are productive (at least a couple of orders of magnitude greater), I don't think we are nearly as close to this as "they" want us to believe. I personally trace it to DC's Pay/Go legislative requirements. The well-intentioned but fictitious idea that every action they take has to be cost justified so that it will save Americans money. Of course the fundamental conceit of that massive logical fallacy is that every government action costs. The government won't ever save Americans money. Somebody always has to pay. So instead of debating actual merits of anything, we exist in a land of CBO scores that never seem to pan out. It would be comical if it wasn't so sad to review how much the government saves us every year by sinking into ever more ridiculous levels of debt. Critical thinking is pushed aside for an easily manipulated con game. Which brings us to this article. These goobs (probably economists with no real world understanding of anything they're talking about) are claiming with a straight face that apparently self-driving cars will be so successful because all these unemployed people will be buying them. WTF? But it's cheap for a major company to outfit a car or two with some computer wizardry and drive it around so they can say, "gee, we've done a million miles going to the grocery store and we haven't run over a small child yet. Must be the next big thing! Buy our stuff." And there's nobody left to remind them that we've known for a while how to make cars fly.
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Post by Marshall on Sept 22, 2017 13:45:34 GMT -5
I like Jeff's post. I agree that Amazon will never deliver anything by drone. The carrying capacities aren't going to be there. (I have a drone). Pus the FAA and Homeland Security are not going to let drones with mysterious packages go zipping around our cities. The risks outweigh any possible efficiencies.
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Post by millring on Sept 22, 2017 13:48:10 GMT -5
driverless cars thoughtless people carbon fiber guitars Name three things without souls.
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Post by drlj on Sept 22, 2017 14:08:14 GMT -5
Self Driving Cars. Great group. They have been playing the Station Inn in Nashville for years. It is hard to get in to hear them now. People start lining up around 2 for the 7 o'clock show. They did a show with Drive-by Truckers that was truly amazing. I have the live recording.
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Post by RickW on Sept 22, 2017 14:10:30 GMT -5
But there are a number of self driving cars being road tested right now, and have millions of miles on them. They work. They apparently work quite well. So can we assume you'll be among the first to eventually buy one when they become available? I dunno. If the "taxi" concept is readily available, might just do that. We'll see what the landscape is, where I'm at in my life, how available the things are.
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Post by millring on Sept 22, 2017 15:03:42 GMT -5
Santa was the first to have an elf-driving car.
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Post by amanajoe on Sept 22, 2017 15:05:41 GMT -5
... I used to feel guilty about ordering from Amazon because the fullfillment centers were close to labor camps, extremely low pay to people who were constantly pushed to work harder running up and down isles to pick products off shelves for shipping. That's all gone now. Amazon WarehouseHoly Moly! That's amazing! It also explains why I got a Barbie Doll and a carton of tampons last week instead of the impact wrench and Minnesota Vikings wall calendar I ordered. You can order anything you want, but the robots know what you really need and put it in the box!
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Post by aquaduct on Sept 22, 2017 15:26:22 GMT -5
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Post by brucemacneill on Sept 22, 2017 16:31:12 GMT -5
Having been in the computer industry, and specializing in security for some of those years, hacks and bugs will probably doom fully self-driving cars as soon as people start to get killed and trucks as soon as either accidents happen or they're programmed to stay under the speed limit and deliveries are late. I hate to recommend law school but your grandkids could do worse. It all appears to be a full employment for lawyers program, to me. The first needed laws will specify who you sue after the accident and I'm guessing the manufacturer and the owner of the vehicle.
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Post by Marshall on Sept 23, 2017 7:40:49 GMT -5
There's a sort of weird technology-fetish cult undercurrent that's been running through society for a while now. I'm not sure when it started...(not all that long ago. If I had to date it, I'd put it at the original "dot com" bubble about 20 years ago, back when nerds went from being nerds to being cool)...but it's as if we've become so acclimated to the pace of technological change, we insist on it. And weirder still, we have lost all sense of skepticism when theoretical future tech is "announced". . . , . . . , I personally trace it to DC's Pay/Go legislative requirements. The well-intentioned but fictitious idea that every action they take has to be cost justified so that it will save Americans money. Of course the fundamental conceit of that massive logical fallacy is that every government action costs. The government won't ever save Americans money. Somebody always has to pay. So instead of debating actual merits of anything, we exist in a land of CBO scores that never seem to pan out. It would be comical if it wasn't so sad to review how much the government saves us every year by sinking into ever more ridiculous levels of debt. Critical thinking is pushed aside for an easily manipulated con game. . . , A couple of interesting posts, boyz.
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