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Post by TKennedy on Jun 3, 2020 12:25:55 GMT -5
Sweden’s epidemiologist had the class to admit that their approach may have been flawed to some degree. Classy. If things go south and we get a bad second wave or the protests result in a huge upsurge of cases how many of the deniers will admit they were wrong? On the other side of the coin how many of the gloom and doomers will gloat? I hope we don’t have to find out. Deniers is the wrong term here. I don't know anyone, even Peter, who denies that Covid exists and poses a threat. My position from the start has been that the response to the virus has been far deadlier than the virus, and probably way less effective than we think it is. I don't think we've been acting from science or reason. By denial I was referencing denial as to the severity of the threat in the early days when the decisions were made. Oh and by the way there are all kinds of gloaters and I must admit you are a pretty elegant gloater Jeff. I can deal with it and still enjoy your posts. 😀
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Post by aquaduct on Jun 3, 2020 12:26:06 GMT -5
We'll continue to disagree about every aspect of that. But you don't have any skin in the game, right?
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Post by fauxmaha on Jun 3, 2020 12:29:47 GMT -5
Deniers is the wrong term here. I don't know anyone, even Peter, who denies that Covid exists and poses a threat. My position from the start has been that the response to the virus has been far deadlier than the virus, and probably way less effective than we think it is. I don't think we've been acting from science or reason. By denial I was referencing denial as to the severity of the threat in the early days when the decisions were made. Oh and by the way there are all kinds of gloaters and I must admit you are a pretty elegant gloater Jeff. I can deal with it and still enjoy your posts. 😀 You should see me in my silk tuxedo. Honestly, you'd swoon, such is the elegance.
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COVID 19
Jun 3, 2020 12:33:33 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by gbacklin on Jun 3, 2020 12:33:33 GMT -5
I have been fortunate to be able to work from home. Even at 65, people still contact me for software development work. Currently Augmented Reality on iOS devices for the medical community. Have a 3D scan of a tumor, with AR, you can literally walk into if through an opening and view from inside. It’s fascinating.
Driving downtown daily, would not work well for me, as another friend of mine just sent me this.
My wife was scheduled for surgery back in January, she finally had it yesterday and I just brought her home. It was at the U of C south of downtown, so there were no issues driving yesterday or today.
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Post by Russell Letson on Jun 3, 2020 12:39:31 GMT -5
In early March I had serious concerns about the new virus, so I cancelled a conference trip (at possible non-trivial cost in non-refundable airfare*) before any shutdown orders came. A week or so later, the organization negotiated a cancellation/delay deal with the hotel. Soon three more upcoming conventions we usually attend were similarly cancelled by their organizers, with the cooperation of the hosting hotels. At the same time, I stopped all my playing-out activities. I was not the only person to make the same kinds of decisions, based on the same kind of thinking.
I retreated from situations where I might be infected not out of cowardice (though I'm not foolishly unafraid of a dire and possibly fatal illness) but because I don't want to get infected and pass it on to my wife, who is more vulnerable than I am.
I made my decisions on the basis of an evolving understanding of a novel virus, one for which there was neither immunization nor effective treatment, which had burned through a Chinese city, which had already appeard in North America. I'm not a doctor, but I am familiar with the patterns of epidemics and pandemics (it's part of literary history--the black death, the plagues of London, typhoid and yellow fever and malaria and cholera) and the polio and AIDS years are part of my personal history. I pay attention to what virologists and epidemiologists have to say, and I know how to parse the evidence and the arguments, how to check back along the reporting path to look at the research.
There is still a good bit of uncertainty about exactly how hazardous/infectious various environments and behaviors are, about the precise behavior of the virus itself (e.g., the inflammatory syndrome showing up in children; the role of clotting processes), about the nature of acquired immunity. It's a novel virus, as full of surprises as HIV turned out to be. Public-health responses are not going to be perfect, but to conflate those difficult calls with mere political ideology is to live in paranoia-land. And to conflate prudence with cowardice is insulting.
* Delta soon forgave the penalties and then gave full credit for a future trip, so maybe I'm not entirely out of pocket on that--should I be able to travel next year.
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Post by Russell Letson on Jun 3, 2020 13:14:41 GMT -5
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Post by millring on Jun 3, 2020 13:19:36 GMT -5
So, since some of us volunteered to shut ourselves off before they were ordered to do so, those of us who were shut down by government order are wrong. That's how it works.
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Post by aquaduct on Jun 3, 2020 13:33:40 GMT -5
So, since some of us volunteered to shut ourselves off before they were ordered to do so, those of us who were shut down by government order are wrong. That's how it works. Just until there's a vaccine, like smallpox.
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Post by fauxmaha on Jun 3, 2020 13:37:49 GMT -5
The narrative coalescing in real time is something like "All the negative effects from the shutdown are more properly blamed on racism".
So when the depression hits, it won't be blamed on the lockdown. It will be considered righteous retribution for 400 years of structural racism.
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Post by Russell Letson on Jun 3, 2020 13:46:10 GMT -5
John, what exactly were the conditions under which the pottery shows and art fairs were cancelled? Were they all in response to state or local shutdown orders? Were any of them cancelled by their proprietors (as were all four of my events)? Did any of them have to wait for government declarations before they could cancel contracts (which probably include force majeur clauses) without getting hit with penalties? As far as I can figure, the St. Croix Valley Pottery Tour (which my playing partner's wife has worked for years) went on-line by March 6, though I can't tell exactly when they cancelled the in-person event.
The day after I decided on my own against joining the Monday Night Jazz session, the governor's ban on bars and restaurants put an official stop to such gatherings. And as far as I can tell from the epidemiological evidence, that ban was the right call. The Folk Society had already decided to cancel upcoming concerts--except our artists beat us to it by cancelling their tours. These were also rational and prudent decisions. Because someone else's individual, free-will decision to ignore the epidemiological evidence can and has resulted in spreading the disease to others.
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Post by Russell Letson on Jun 3, 2020 13:51:23 GMT -5
Jeff, cite some evidence--preferably from a non-wackjob source--or a "narrative coalescing in real time" is just an upscale version of "a lot of people are saying."
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Post by fauxmaha on Jun 3, 2020 13:53:34 GMT -5
Jeff, cite some evidence--preferably from a non-wackjob source--or a "narrative coalescing in real time" is just an upscale version of "a lot of people are saying." Already did: The previously linked NYT article. PS: Took all of 60 seconds to find this gem (From the "Chair of the New York City Council Health Committee"): I don't think you appreciate how easy this is.
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Post by millring on Jun 3, 2020 14:27:17 GMT -5
John, what exactly were the conditions under which the pottery shows and art fairs were cancelled? Were they all in response to state or local shutdown orders? Yes.
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Post by Russell Letson on Jun 3, 2020 14:50:00 GMT -5
Jeff, cite some evidence--preferably from a non-wackjob source--or a "narrative coalescing in real time" is just an upscale version of "a lot of people are saying." Already did: The previously linked NYT article. PS: Took all of 60 seconds to find this gem (From the "Chair of the New York City Council Health Committee"): I don't think you appreciate how easy this is. That Levine link didn't show up in my aging Firefox rendering of the post. But an asshole politician's tweet? Really? That makes "a lot of people are saying" look like scholarship. Also note the pushback in the responses to his tweet. A lot of people saying "bullshit." So maybe it's a wash. But to back up to the NYT piece: I don't see the "narrative coalescing in real time" as suggested but a story on the effects of tear gas, which do indeed include increased vulnerability to respiratory problems. One more reason not to gather in crowds and yell a lot.
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Post by brucemacneill on Jun 3, 2020 15:10:20 GMT -5
OK so political tweets can be ignored per Russell. That lets Trump off the hook from now on. If you can ignore a Democrat, you can ignore a republican. That's a win.
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Post by Russell Letson on Jun 3, 2020 15:33:20 GMT -5
Bruce, look around at the ways "narrative" is used in public discourse, then look at Jeff's usage (a "narrative coalescing in real time") and at his assertions that "a bunch of 'public health' officials revealed their true priorities, and in the process, revealed how none of this can be taken as without ideological bias" and "when the depression hits, it won't be blamed on the lockdown. It will be considered righteous retribution for 400 years of structural racism." Note the scare quotes around "public health." Note the invitation to see everything through an ideological point of view. Note the failure to sort through the range of commentators and analysts and consultants and reporters and scientists and actual public health officials and instead to cherry-pick a tweet from a politician whose credibility should have taken a hit when he cheered the crowds gathered for Chinese New Year.
The public square--even before got was filled with protesters and cops and clouds of tear gas--is a crowded, noisy place, and not everyone who shouts "Lord, lord" at the top of his lungs is worth listening to. Or citing as evidence of a developing "narrative." Though propagandists will certainly sift through the noise looking for what they insist is signal.
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Post by jdd2 on Jun 3, 2020 16:20:00 GMT -5
The covid-19 vaccine will probably come right after the HIV and ebola vaccine trials are finished.
And after being fast-tracked past the ones for malaria and zika.
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Post by jdd2 on Jun 4, 2020 17:49:54 GMT -5
Not a covid-19 flower, but cephalanthus occidentalis.
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Post by Cornflake on Jun 4, 2020 20:59:04 GMT -5
The virus is passe now, I gather. But here it's getting worse. From the Arizona Republic.
"As of Thursday, Arizona's total case count was 22,753, a 28% increase from last Thursday’s 17,763 cases. The state is nearing a total 1,000 deaths known to have occurred from COVID-19 — as of Thursday, total known deaths were 996.
"The virus is widespread. It's in every county and every state in our nation," [Governor] Ducey said. "This virus is not going away."
Arizona's COVID-19 numbers show recent increases in hospitalizations, cases and the percent of positive tests, but [Arizona Department of Health Services director] Christ would not say whether those numbers indicate a spike in community spread.
"We know we've got a little bit of a reporting lag, so we'd have to go back and see where the majority of those cases, if they are coming from the specific targeted testing that we are looking at or if it looks like it is community spread, and I don't have the answer to that question right now," Christ said Thursday.
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COVID 19
Jun 4, 2020 21:17:20 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by aquaduct on Jun 4, 2020 21:17:20 GMT -5
The virus is passe now, I gather. But here it's getting worse. From the Arizona Republic. "As of Thursday, Arizona's total case count was 22,753, a 28% increase from last Thursday’s 17,763 cases. The state is nearing a total 1,000 deaths known to have occurred from COVID-19 — as of Thursday, total known deaths were 996. "The virus is widespread. It's in every county and every state in our nation," [Governor] Ducey said. "This virus is not going away." Arizona's COVID-19 numbers show recent increases in hospitalizations, cases and the percent of positive tests, but [Arizona Department of Health Services director] Christ would not say whether those numbers indicate a spike in community spread. "We know we've got a little bit of a reporting lag, so we'd have to go back and see where the majority of those cases, if they are coming from the specific targeted testing that we are looking at or if it looks like it is community spread, and I don't have the answer to that question right now," Christ said Thursday. But we've moved on to rioting, docha know.
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