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Post by majorminor on Jun 11, 2020 10:38:41 GMT -5
200,000 dead in us expected by Sept. and that’s a best case scenario. Mike Source? The IMHE and CDC stats look lower(although not that much) My recollection was an even higher initial higher estimated death toll(based on that early English model that blew up the world) then a MAJOR revision downward a month or so ago based on Univ of Washington modelling that was forecasting 60-80K US deaths this year. Maybe that first guy is going to wind up being right. Starting to think the whole "it's over let's open up" push from state and fed governments is just trying to put a positive spin on the inevitability of having to open the economy back up. There's not enough money to pay people to stay home indefinitely and IMO the economy and a good part of the US population ain't gonna survive another 2-3 months of stay home.
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Post by epaul on Jun 11, 2020 10:41:07 GMT -5
YOU JUST WANT PEOPLE TO DIE!
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Post by epaul on Jun 11, 2020 10:41:32 GMT -5
(I was just mimicking an idiot. Ignore.)
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Post by epaul on Jun 11, 2020 10:48:02 GMT -5
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Post by Cosmic Wonder on Jun 11, 2020 10:49:42 GMT -5
200,000 dead in us expected by Sept. and that’s a best case scenario. Mike Source? The IMHE and CDC stats look lower(although not that much) My recollection was an even higher initial higher estimated death toll(based on that early English model that blew up the world) then a MAJOR revision downward a month or so ago based on Univ of Washington modelling that was forecasting 60-80K US deaths this year. Maybe that first guy is going to wind up being right. Starting to think the whole "it's over let's open up" push from state and fed governments is just trying to put a positive spin on the inevitability of having to open the economy back up. There's not enough money to pay people to stay home indefinitely and IMO the economy and a good part of the US population ain't gonna survive another 2-3 months of stay home. I think the interview was originally in Wa Po, and Today carried it. We are losing between 800-1000 people per day, and cases seem to be ramping up. www.today.com/health/us-coronavirus-deaths-could-reach-200-000-september-harvard-doctor-t183984?cid=sm_npd_td_tw_maMike
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Post by epaul on Jun 11, 2020 10:55:05 GMT -5
[from today's Star Tribune (linked above. Some inconsequential editing done only as a courtesy)
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Post by epaul on Jun 11, 2020 10:57:44 GMT -5
[Strib continued]
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Post by Cornflake on Jun 11, 2020 12:13:00 GMT -5
"'There’s been some attention, just lately, to Arizona and Utah, for example, and what might be learned from the sudden rise that we’re seeing in those states,' said Jan Malcolm, state health commissioner...."
I think the best explanation of what's happening here is that when our stay-at-home order expired, a lot of people reverted to pre-COVID behavior. That's what some public-health officials have said. That's also what I've observed. I haven't had major quarrels with our governor's handling of things but I think he has been weak in pushing the message that social distancing is still necessary. Additionally, he encouraged businesses to comply with CDC guidelines but didn't require it.
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Post by aquaduct on Jun 11, 2020 12:54:33 GMT -5
"'There’s been some attention, just lately, to Arizona and Utah, for example, and what might be learned from the sudden rise that we’re seeing in those states,' said Jan Malcolm, state health commissioner...." I think the best explanation of what's happening here is that when our stay-at-home order expired, a lot of people reverted to pre-COVID behavior. That's what some public-health officials have said. That's also what I've observed. I haven't had major quarrels with our governor's handling of things but I think he has been weak in pushing the message that social distancing is still necessary. Additionally, he encouraged businesses to comply with CDC guidelines but didn't require it. A message asking people to commit suicide for the common good is bound to be useless no matter how forcefully you promote it.
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Post by epaul on Jun 11, 2020 13:21:01 GMT -5
That's a useful snark. Very much like the one that set me off in the 'Peter' thread.
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Post by aquaduct on Jun 11, 2020 13:43:12 GMT -5
That's a useful snark. Very much like the one that set me off in the 'Peter' thread. It's not snark if you've ever lost your job.
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Post by epaul on Jun 11, 2020 13:48:42 GMT -5
Meanwhile, from what I can see up here, social distancing, which was spotty to begin with, has flew right outside the window once it starting getting nice out in May.
Many State workers are still working from home and summer activities for kids have been modified, or dropped, and golfers can't share a cart anymore... (a profitable practice golfclubs were quick to adopt and have been very slow to rescind, imo). Maybe, maybe, 20% of the shoppers wore a mask at the high point and that number is drop, drop, dropping.
(for my part, as a courtesy, if store employees are wearing a mask, I wear one in solidarity (and to be a good citizen). But, if no one else is, I sure don't.
By and large, the voluntary social distancing guidelines are now, and have been for a month or so, ignored by most. (the stores have tried, with traffic arrows and signs galore, but, the arrows and signs are ignored). People are responding to what they have experienced and observed, and up here, at least, significant Covid cases have been connected to specific environments and are rare and remote to the personal experiences of most (if they weren't, behavior would shift on a dime).
(It has occurred to me that back in Feb. when I was hiding under the bed and ordering groceries on line, the virus probably wasn't within 500 miles of me. But now I'm out and about cavalierly it will probably explode in Grand Forks and I will get hammered. Such is irony.
Meanwhile, my community band has decided to start up Aug. 1st and schools will open on time this fall, and with those two final pieces of the puzzle, my life will be back to complete normal.
(only to get fucked up again?)
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Post by epaul on Jun 11, 2020 13:49:28 GMT -5
That's a useful snark. Very much like the one that set me off in the 'Peter' thread. It's not snark if you've ever lost your job. so emotional. Does your emotion end discussion? Dave says, 'you are killing old people'. You say, 'someone lost a job'. You both are playing a card. Yes, sad things happen.
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Post by Cornflake on Jun 11, 2020 13:57:23 GMT -5
"Starting to think the whole 'it's over let's open up' push from state and fed governments is just trying to put a positive spin on the inevitability of having to open the economy back up."
I substantially agree. Most people understood that we couldn't keep people locked down forever. Fauci said as much. Purely from a public-health standpoint, I'd have kept the order in our state in place somewhat longer. When I factored in concern about the economy, though, I was on board with the decision to lift the order.
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Post by aquaduct on Jun 11, 2020 13:57:30 GMT -5
It's not snark if you've ever lost your job. so emotional. Does your emotion end discussion? Dave says, 'you are killing old people'. You say, 'someone lost a job'. You both are playing a card. Yes, sad things happen. Yes, I do get emotional when assholes force that on others.
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Post by millring on Jun 14, 2020 6:55:05 GMT -5
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Post by millring on Jun 14, 2020 6:59:36 GMT -5
I think this might be the way most people view the risk. There are so many distortions in this illustration, I don't even know where to begin.
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COVID 19
Jun 14, 2020 8:45:17 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by aquaduct on Jun 14, 2020 8:45:17 GMT -5
I think this might be the way most people view the risk. There are so many distortions in this illustration, I don't even know where to begin. I don't see rioting on either of those infographics. Must have slipped to page two.
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Post by epaul on Jun 14, 2020 10:47:23 GMT -5
North Dakota Dept. of Health now has the Corona 19 virus risk level at very low. For graphs on tests, cases, hospitalizations, and deaths by date, age group, and county, click on the North Dakota Cases box. North Dakota has now tested over 85,000 unique individuals (one individual is one case regardless of how many times that one person may have been tested, as in the case of health workers). That is just over 11% of the state's population, which is, or was last I heard, the highest percentage of state population tested in the country. By far, most positive test results are in the 20-29 and 29-30 age group. 1328 positive cases, no deaths. By comparison, in the 70-70 and 80+ grouping, there have only been 312 positive cases, but 63 have resulted in deaths. www.health.nd.gov/diseases-conditions/coronavirus
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Post by Russell Letson on Jun 14, 2020 11:17:49 GMT -5
John, I'm curious about the distortions you see in the graphic. While I'm cautious about infographics in general, this one seems to be a straightforward presentation of the categories of risk situations as averaged out from the ranking numbers assigned by "health experts." There are several clear potential problem points in such a story: Who are the "health experts"? On what basis did they assign the rankings? Who decided on a ten-point range, and does that range represent anything beyond a convenient number?
That said, the accompanying copy outlines pretty much the advice of public-health people that has been developing since the pandemic got rolling, and the variables match my understanding of the situational/behavioral factors that epidemiologists and public-health officials would look at for any disease outbreak and that seem to fit what we understand so far about the behavior of the virus (degree of contagiousness, viral dose, possibility of pre- or asymptomatic contagion, likely preventative measures). There is an inevitable degree of uncertainty in this picture--we are, after all, less than six months into this process. But those "five factors" are the ones that I take into account as I try to arrange our activities.
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