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Post by Cornflake on May 9, 2022 18:31:32 GMT -5
I've been reading articles that report that home prices in Phoenix have risen faster than anywhere else in the country. It's supply and demand at work. A lot of people want to move here. The supply of housing units is about 250,000 short of what would be needed to satisfy the demand. Zillow reports that our home has increased in value by about 80 percent in the last decade. Most of that has come in the last two years.
There are also articles about the increasing water shortages. We've been in a drought for almost three decades. Wells have been mining aquifer water much faster than it's being replaced. You can't keep that up forever. Cities and towns are looking at having to impose restrictions.* Climate projections show that our already hot weather is going to get hotter. That will also reduce precipitation.
A frequent topic of conversation when I get together with friends is how crazy this all is. We'd be wise to sell our house and skedaddle... except that our community is here and we don't really want to move.
*The restrictions will probably be on outdoor water use. That won't affect us much because the water for our yard comes from a separate system that has nothing to do with municipal water. It's a long story.
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Post by Deleted on May 9, 2022 19:04:24 GMT -5
Reservoirs all over the southwest and California are low. I’d have to look for the articles, but climate scientists have theorized for a while that the west and southwest saw abnormally wet weather for an extended period that lasted about 150 years and ended around 2000 ucanr.edu/blogs/blogcore/postdetail.cfm?postnum=13274 |
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Post by Hobson on May 9, 2022 19:06:34 GMT -5
Zillow thinks that our humble abode in Tucson has increased by 64% since we bought it. We bought it 3 years ago. Zillow also thinks that our previous house in semi-rural southeastern Arizona has increased by the same percentage in the 2 years since we sold it. None of this matters unless you're ready to sell and go somewhere else. From what I've been reading, rents in Phoenix and Tucson are also crazy.
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Post by Cornflake on May 9, 2022 19:14:15 GMT -5
Paul, that's correct. Most of the settlement in Arizona occurred during the abnormally wet 20th century. Rights to the Colorado River were also divvied up then. That's why the sum of the various states' entitlement to water now exceeds the total flow.
Renee, yes, rents are also crazy. I've been told by a friend who's a real estate agent not to trust Zillow very far but it's the only readily available information. Recent sales prices in our area suggest that it's not too far off.
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Post by majorminor on May 9, 2022 19:52:51 GMT -5
We interrupt your regularly scheduled programming to remind you that Montana Sucks ™️.
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Post by Cornflake on May 9, 2022 20:03:28 GMT -5
"We interrupt your regularly scheduled program to remind you that Montana Sucks."
Thanks for the reminder. It must be sad to live there. Always shoveling snow. Always ****ing horses.
Are you in Kenai? Our thoughts are with you.
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Post by Rob Hanesworth on May 9, 2022 20:36:28 GMT -5
I just read a report on house prices in the towns surrounding Indianapolis, including mine. The price increase percentages are very high. My house is worth enough to tempt me to sell it except my replacement abode would cost an equally ridiculous amount.
You can't hope to buy a house here for the listing price. Someone will outbid you with an offer thousands over listing and often pay cash and waive inspections. My newlywed granddaughter and her husband just moved into their first house after bidding on and losing several. To get it they had to make a preemptive offer.
Now, if you own a home in San Francisco or another high cost area you can sell it and buy a relative mansion here and maybe retire on what's left.
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Post by TKennedy on May 9, 2022 20:45:56 GMT -5
You guys could sell your places and buy a gated estate in Brandon MN for under a 100K. And have leftover cash for all sorts of toys.
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Post by aquaduct on May 9, 2022 20:49:59 GMT -5
You guys could sell your places and buy a gated estate in Brandon MN for under a 100K. And have leftover cash for all sorts of toys. But then you'd have to live in Minnesota. |
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Post by Cosmic Wonder on May 10, 2022 8:29:25 GMT -5
It seems the whole world has gone nuts. When we bought the Airstream, part of the justification for paying so much for a trailer was the resale value. airstreams tended to hold their value better than stick built trailers. Our twenty year old trade in was worth virtually nothing, while twenty year old Airstreams retained appt least half their value.
Fast forward to the Pandemic, and Airstream cannot keep up with the demand. Today, if you want a new Airstream, you give the dealer a deposit, and wait as long as ten months for delivery. Friends of ours decided to sell their Airstream after the husbands less than successful back surgery. It was. 25 ft Flying Cloud, 2016, in good shape. They sold it for more than they paid for it, and had multiple buyers wanting it. Crazy.
Mike
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Post by PaulKay on May 10, 2022 8:47:19 GMT -5
I've been reading articles that report that home prices in Phoenix have risen faster than anywhere else in the country. It's supply and demand at work. A lot of people want to move here. The supply of housing units is about 250,000 short of what would be needed to satisfy the demand. Zillow reports that our home has increased in value by about 80 percent in the last decade. Most of that has come in the last two years. There are also articles about the increasing water shortages. We've been in a drought for almost three decades. Wells have been mining aquifer water much faster than it's being replaced. You can't keep that up forever. Cities and towns are looking at having to impose restrictions.* Climate projections show that our already hot weather is going to get hotter. That will also reduce precipitation. A frequent topic of conversation when I get together with friends is how crazy this all is. We'd be wise to sell our house and skedaddle... except that our community is here and we don't really want to move. *The restrictions will probably be on outdoor water use. That won't affect us much because the water for our yard comes from a separate system that has nothing to do with municipal water. It's a long story. As one who recently moved to AZ 6 years ago now, I can agree with everything you said. And your conclusion that it would be wise to sell now and leave is a very real conversation Linda and I have been having. We aren't as tied to the community as you are. Our property value over the 6 years has gone up 92% if you can believe what Zillow says it's currently worth. If we believe Realtor.com it's gone up 79% The water crisis is only going to get worse. It is inevitable that Phoenix will have to figure out how to get by without the Colorado River water. |
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Post by Marshall on May 10, 2022 16:57:13 GMT -5
We've got 20%of the world's fresh water flowing through the tap. And with all the human usage, lake levels have been rising in recent years.
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Post by jdd2 on May 11, 2022 4:11:00 GMT -5
Inflation in house prices is, you know, the 'good' inflation...  (have that cake and eat it, too)  |
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Post by millring on May 11, 2022 4:40:24 GMT -5
I just read a report on house prices in the towns surrounding Indianapolis, including mine. The price increase percentages are very high. My house is worth enough to tempt me to sell it except my replacement abode would cost an equally ridiculous amount. You can't hope to buy a house here for the listing price. Someone will outbid you with an offer thousands over listing and often pay cash and waive inspections. My newlywed granddaughter and her husband just moved into their first house after bidding on and losing several. To get it they had to make a preemptive offer. Now, if you own a home in San Francisco or another high cost area you can sell it and buy a relative mansion here and maybe retire on what's left. I'm wondering how that happens. 1. How does everyone know how much over the asking price, and feel confident about a first offer? 2. How did everyone in the housing market suddenly have the cash of a millionaire to put down on these 300-500K houses? (is it merely an upward spiral -- musical houses shifting the same money around?) |
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Post by aquaduct on May 11, 2022 5:39:49 GMT -5
I just read a report on house prices in the towns surrounding Indianapolis, including mine. The price increase percentages are very high. My house is worth enough to tempt me to sell it except my replacement abode would cost an equally ridiculous amount. You can't hope to buy a house here for the listing price. Someone will outbid you with an offer thousands over listing and often pay cash and waive inspections. My newlywed granddaughter and her husband just moved into their first house after bidding on and losing several. To get it they had to make a preemptive offer. Now, if you own a home in San Francisco or another high cost area you can sell it and buy a relative mansion here and maybe retire on what's left. I'm wondering how that happens. 1. How does everyone know how much over the asking price, and feel confident about a first offer? 2. How did everyone in the housing market suddenly have the cash of a millionaire to put down on these 300-500K houses? (is it merely an upward spiral -- musical houses shifting the same money around?) From what I understand out here, a lot of it is corporate land speculation combined with cheap financing. So far anyways. It seems our whole neighborhood is for sale. Our house is supposedly worth almost 170% of what we bought it for 6 years ago. |
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Post by aquaduct on May 11, 2022 7:50:56 GMT -5
Can You Spell "Bubble"?2008 and beyond was brutal. Our townhouse lost 2/3 of its value almost overnight. Still not enough of a loss to qualify for Obama's feeble "help" program. Combine that with sudden unexpected Federal unemployment (seriously, who the hell gets dismissed from a cushy Federal job is what everyone wondered. Well, let me tell you.....) led to bankruptcy. Our lawyer at the time told us that we'd probably qualify for another mortgage within 3 years of stiffing that mortgage company and she was right. The only way out of a tough situation. And it looks like here we go again. Hope y'all ain't terribly overextended with the current flush market.
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Post by Marshall on May 11, 2022 8:31:43 GMT -5
I think those cash deals are few and far between. There are some. And they make for a good story.
Yeah, it could be a bubble. Material shortages and Increased labor costs have made for a “supply” shortage. And very low interest rates ( with the prospect of higher rates to come) creates instantaneous “demand.”
All God’s creatures do strange things in a feeding frenzy.
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Post by Cosmic Wonder on May 11, 2022 8:51:56 GMT -5
I think those cash deals are few and far between. There are some. And they make for a good story. Yeah, it could be a bubble. Not on the left coast. Cash is the new normal. Californians who relocate to the PNW sell for over a million or two and buy the equivalent here for around 700-800 k. Mike |
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Post by Marshall on May 11, 2022 10:06:17 GMT -5
Sure. There are people who sell a house and have that cash on hand. Plus people moving from high rent location, SoCal, will have the extra moola to spent in a lower cost area (like Montana) and think nothing of bidding high (for the local area, not for where they came from) for a property they want.
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Post by Marshall on May 11, 2022 10:11:24 GMT -5
The world is changing beneath our old feet. Pandemic and working from home have made it possible for more people to relocate out of high cost areas. Thus raising the value of lesser markets.
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(have that cake and eat it, too)