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Post by fauxmaha on Mar 4, 2016 14:06:23 GMT -5
This chart is a screen grab off of Google Trends for the last 30 days. Like many (and apparently all professional political pundits), I've been trying to wrap my head around the Trump phenomenon, and have had little success. I have a bunch of theories, but none of them seem right. I had one moment in my life that is absolutely seared into my memory. The details are far too personal to share, but the substance of the moment was how I was overwhelmed by a wave of emotion truly unlike anything I had ever experienced (like 100x the intensity of what I felt when I received the news that my father had died back in college). The trigger for that moment was a long-repressed truth being brought into the daylight. That moment was equal parts painful and glorious and liberating and terrifying. I really can't describe it. Which brings me to sympathy (probably more precise to say "empathy") and my current and quite vague sense of the Trump phenomenon. I don't think I ever considered how many people in this country feel profoundly detached from what we have become. They are profoundly disaffected. They feel entirely powerless. More than that, they feel attacked. They feel that government no longer exists to support and protect them, but to correct and remediate them. And there are millions of them. For people who feel that way, I can only imagine that hearing Trump created a response in them not unlike what I experienced in my earlier moment. Probably less intense, but just as real. I think this places a profound burden on "us"...those who generally follow politics and current events and fancy ourselves reasonably well informed. We have been leaving a huge number of our fellow travelers behind. Whatever it is we are doing, we are doing it wrong. If you look around and think things are generally going just fine, you're wrong. This Trump thing is real. For whatever reason, tens of millions of people are ready to say "fuck it" to the whole system. I don't really understand why, but I do know they are not going away. They can be beaten down, but they can not be "defeated". Whatever it is that Trump is tapping in to is not going away.
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Post by Cosmic Wonder on Mar 4, 2016 14:11:00 GMT -5
I think that is an apt description of Germany in the 30s.
Mike
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Post by Fingerplucked on Mar 4, 2016 14:41:07 GMT -5
Jeff, I think you’re right in that whatever it is isn’t going away anytime soon. As to the cause, I like the “authoritarianism theory,” especially in light of it’s predictive capability. They saw “A" Trump coming, even though they didn’t know it would be personified in Trump. I wouldn’t necessarily say the theory is complete, the be all and end all, but it goes a long way in explaining the underlying causes of what we’re seeing.
Google Trends isn’t necessarily the best indicator of voter sentiments. I don’t think it’s far off from actual sentiments, but there’s no direct link. Anti-Trumpists are just as likely to google Trump as his supporters as are those who lie somewhere in the middle.
This next part might belong better in the GOP National Security Community or the Romney thread, but since I’m here...
I’ve been listening to the NYT, ABC and NBC news podcasts during my workout, and there is a common thread which is the hypocrisy of the Anti-Trump movement. It’s great that everybody is finally standing up in opposition to Trump’s bigotry, racism, misogyny and the rest, but the timing is suspect as well as the reversal of individual’s positions, most notably Romney. Romney’s not guilty of unfair discrimination. As far as I know he’s always been a stand up guy in that regard, but his total reversal on Trump in particular is astounding. Four years ago Romney had nothing but praise for Trump.
But forget about Romney.
As an outsider what I’d really like to hear from the GOP is unequivocal and consistent disavowal of bigotry in all its forms, whether racial, religious, sexual, or national. I’d like to hear GOP leaders telling voters straight out “If you do not believe in equality for all, we do not want your vote and we do not want you in the Party of Lincoln.” And I’d like to see them smack down any of their co-politicians when they say something stupid (bigoted) in public with formal censure in extreme cases.
I’m not saying I’d vote Republican if they made those changes, but I’d be halfway there. And no matter how I voted, the Republican Party would not appear so hypocritical, nor would they be fostering so much of the destructive elements within their own Party. If they made it clear that they don’t want those people, some would stay anyway while others would turn Democratic since they’d have nowhere else to go. It wouldn’t solve the problem of bigotry, but the Republican Party would no longer be the automatic first choice for those people.
Note: This shouldn’t need to be said, but just in case, I’m not saying that all Republicans are bigots. But the GOP has drawn more than their fair share, and Party policy seems to be to tolerate them, if not overtly and actively recruiting them.
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Post by AlanC on Mar 4, 2016 15:28:05 GMT -5
And I'd like to see Democrats stand up to the "activists" who say that all the ills of the black community are the sole fault of us evil white people and maybe suggest that some of their problems are self inflicted. I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for that to happen though. It's in their interest to pander to it and make sure nothing gets better. A lot of what is called "racism" these days is not even close. I've seen racism. I lived in the segregated South. I just saw my friend Clarence Osbin the other day. He was the first black male to graduate from Carriere High School. He was in my graduating class. He experienced real racism. Despite that, he graduated, got a good job, raised a son who became a Navy Seal, and recently retired (while I still spin the hampster wheel). He told me that the black community has wasted all that he went thru. You can't even list the self inflicted problems of the contemporary black community without being labeled a racist. This is not going to get better anytime soon. The more you call for others to renounce their "racism", the more they will turn away from you with some choice expletives and anatomically impossible imperatives. But.... like you said yesterday, we all see what we wanna see.
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Post by Fingerplucked on Mar 4, 2016 15:58:12 GMT -5
And I'd like to see Democrats stand up to the "activists" who say that all the ills of the black community are the sole fault of us evil white people and maybe suggest that some of their problems are self inflicted. I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for that to happen though. It's in their interest to pander to it and make sure nothing gets better. A lot of what is called "racism" these days is not even close. I've seen racism. I lived in the segregated South. I just saw my friend Clarence Osbin the other day. He was the first black male to graduate from Carriere High School. He was in my graduating class. He experienced real racism. Despite that, he graduated, got a good job, raised a son who became a Navy Seal, and recently retired (while I still spin the hampster wheel). He told me that the black community has wasted all that he went thru. You can't even list the self inflicted problems of the contemporary black community without being labeled a racist. This is not going to get better anytime soon. The more you call for others to renounce their "racism", the more they will turn away from you with some choice expletives and anatomically impossible imperatives. But.... like you said yesterday, we all see what we wanna see. I agree with you up to a point. I don’t know of many who are claiming that all the ills of the black community are the sole fault of whites. Some seem to lean in that direction, though. The most recent case I noticed was Melissa Harris-Perry quitting her show on MSNBC over being preempted for election coverage. Melissa says it’s racially motivated. Bullshit, says I. (Not really. What I really said was give me a break. But it meant bullshit.) When blacks go too far I resent it. If I could somehow get the offenders together, I’d explain that when they do that, they tend to offend the very people - the outsiders - who are trying to support them. It’s counterproductive. Your high school buddy is proof that being born black is not a death sentence. It is possible to rise above your conditions and lead a successful life. Hell, we even have a black President. But anecdotal evidence does not make a case. For every one that rises out of poverty, there are ___ (hundreds? thousands?) who do not. Our country has relatively low social and economic mobility, low when compared to other countries and low compared to ourselves in the post WWII economy of the 50s and 60. If you are born into poverty, chances are, that’s exactly where you’ll stay. Likewise, if you are born into affluence, that is where you are most likely to stay. Blacks have responsibility for their own lives. But whites can’t deny their role in the development of black culture. We no longer have slavery, but we do still have systemic race-based inequality, and each grudging step forward has been resisted. I’ll join with you in calling out blacks who want to blame each and every little thing on whites. That doesn’t mean much, though, since I don’t know any who fit the bill. On the other hand, I do know a few white racists.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 4, 2016 16:17:02 GMT -5
While I don't like Donald Trump, I find that I also don't like many of the things he and his potential voters don't like. I think the whole thing is phony. I think much of the shock over his antics is phony. I think most of the indignation is phony. I think the media coverage is phony. All the establishment Democratic Party issues are phony, all the establishment GOP issues are phony and all the candidates are totally phony. Government has turned into a cancer that spreads out of control no matter which party controls it. Holy shit, I'm Holden Caulfield!
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Post by brucemacneill on Mar 4, 2016 16:38:32 GMT -5
According to a news report today, in Massachusetts Tuesday over 40,000 Democrats changed their registration to Republican so they could vote for Trump. Interesting to me is that Kasich came in 2nd in Massachusetts and without those Democrat voters Trump wouldn't have won. It's all working according to plan. Hillary wins, apparently after Trump, although the nominee, is bankrupted by the N.Y. suit about Trump University and all those Trump Republicans revert to their Democrat registration and vote for Hillary even if she's under indictment. The Clintons are brilliant you know, having turned poverty when they left the Whitehouse into a 2Billion dollar charity that only provides payments to the Clintons. Priceless.
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Post by brucemacneill on Mar 4, 2016 16:51:59 GMT -5
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Post by AlanC on Mar 4, 2016 16:53:15 GMT -5
We just don't see the same things but that's OK.
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Post by Fingerplucked on Mar 4, 2016 17:03:27 GMT -5
According to a news report today, in Massachusetts Tuesday over 40,000 Democrats changed their registration to Republican so they could vote for Trump. Interesting to me is that Kasich came in 2nd in Massachusetts and without those Democrat voters Trump wouldn't have won. It's all working according to plan. Hillary wins, apparently after Trump, although the nominee, is bankrupted by the N.Y. suit about Trump University and all those Trump Republicans revert to their Democrat registration and vote for Hillary even if she's under indictment. The Clintons are brilliant you know, having turned poverty when they left the Whitehouse into a 2Billion dollar charity that only provides payments to the Clintons. Priceless. I’m not sure what your point was before spiraling downward. I thought it was that Democrats are voting Republican to screw up the Republican primaries, but from what I can see, it’s 20k voters, not 40k, and they left the Democratic Party because they want Trump as their President. Nobody ever said that Republicans have a lock on stupid.
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Post by brucemacneill on Mar 4, 2016 17:25:57 GMT -5
I thought the Massachusetts guy I heard on TV this morning said 40,000 but maybe it was 20,000. I was still on my first cup of coffee.
The Virginia guy Wednesday assured us that the turncoats would vote Democrat in November so not to worry, Hillary wins.
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Post by Doug on Mar 4, 2016 17:49:53 GMT -5
Biggest mistake both here and in the media is calling Trump a Republican.
That paragraph tells it all it has been more than 50 years since the government wasn't the enemy of the people.
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Post by jdd2 on Mar 4, 2016 17:59:11 GMT -5
There are different news versions of this letter from Buffett emphasizing different parts of it, etc., but it puzzles me how someone like him--with the long view--can be so positive, while on the other hand a lot of the Trump support seems to come from a fed-up-with-it or throw-in-the-towel point of view. www.businessinsider.com/warren-buffett-on-secular-stagnation-2016-2
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Post by Russell Letson on Mar 4, 2016 18:07:17 GMT -5
It was more like 20,000, and the shift was 16,347 from Democratic to "unenrolled" and 3,455 to GOP. www.masslive.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/02/nearly_20k_left_massachusetts.htmlThe story ends with this (my bold): That continues a long-term, ongoing trend of Massachusetts voters steadily continuing to choose un-enrolled status instead of choosing to enroll with one of the parties.
There are 4.3 million registered voters in Massachusetts, including inactive voters. Massachusetts has 2.28 million un-enrolled voters.
Democrats have a total of 1.5 million registered voters, while Republicans have 468,295 voters.
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Post by brucemacneill on Mar 4, 2016 18:17:13 GMT -5
It was more like 20,000, and the shift was 16,347 from Democratic to "unenrolled" and 3,455 to GOP. www.masslive.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/02/nearly_20k_left_massachusetts.htmlThe story ends with this (my bold): That continues a long-term, ongoing trend of Massachusetts voters steadily continuing to choose un-enrolled status instead of choosing to enroll with one of the parties.
There are 4.3 million registered voters in Massachusetts, including inactive voters. Massachusetts has 2.28 million un-enrolled voters.
Democrats have a total of 1.5 million registered voters, while Republicans have 468,295 voters. That doesn't jibe with what the guy was saying about the big increase in Republican votes and decrease in Democrat votes Tuesday. Anyway, water over the dam. Who cares? What difference at this point does it really make?
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Post by Doug on Mar 4, 2016 18:19:25 GMT -5
It was more like 20,000, and the shift was 16,347 from Democratic to "unenrolled" and 3,455 to GOP. www.masslive.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/02/nearly_20k_left_massachusetts.htmlThe story ends with this (my bold): That continues a long-term, ongoing trend of Massachusetts voters steadily continuing to choose un-enrolled status instead of choosing to enroll with one of the parties.
There are 4.3 million registered voters in Massachusetts, including inactive voters. Massachusetts has 2.28 million un-enrolled voters.
Democrats have a total of 1.5 million registered voters, while Republicans have 468,295 voters. Interesting numbers. I'd guess that half of that 1.5 million are Sanders voters who wouldn't vote for Hillary to keep from getting shot. Some will vote Trump. Most of the Republicans will vote Trump and of the other 2.3 million half will stay home and 1/4 will vote Trump leaving a narrow victory for Trump. Trump takes MA wont that be a head line.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 4, 2016 18:21:19 GMT -5
People lie to pollsters and are no longer openly committing to one party or the other? Next thing you know, they'll be allowed to change their minds now and then. The fact that Trump could change his mind seems to shock pundits, experts, GOP establishment types and Democrats. Only fools never change their minds. Especially when confronted with changing facts and a persuasive argument.
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Post by brucemacneill on Mar 4, 2016 18:27:17 GMT -5
People lie to pollsters and are no longer openly committing to one party or the other? Next thing you know, they'll be allowed to change their minds now and then. The fact that Trump could change his mind seems to shock pundits, experts, GOP establishment types and Democrats. Only fools never change their minds. Especially when confronted with changing facts and a persuasive argument. Yeah, I used to think that too.
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Post by Doug on Mar 4, 2016 18:39:15 GMT -5
Always lie to pollsters. It is none of their business what you think. If they want to know what kind of soap you use tell them you make your own, if they want to know if you voted for Clinton tell them you voted for Jimmy Carter. No matter what a pollster as always lie.
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Post by millring on Mar 4, 2016 19:39:58 GMT -5
And I'd like to see Democrats stand up to the "activists" who say that all the ills of the black community are the sole fault of us evil white people and maybe suggest that some of their problems are self inflicted. I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for that to happen though. It's in their interest to pander to it and make sure nothing gets better. A lot of what is called "racism" these days is not even close. I've seen racism. I lived in the segregated South. I just saw my friend Clarence Osbin the other day. He was the first black male to graduate from Carriere High School. He was in my graduating class. He experienced real racism. Despite that, he graduated, got a good job, raised a son who became a Navy Seal, and recently retired (while I still spin the hampster wheel). He told me that the black community has wasted all that he went thru. You can't even list the self inflicted problems of the contemporary black community without being labeled a racist. This is not going to get better anytime soon. The more you call for others to renounce their "racism", the more they will turn away from you with some choice expletives and anatomically impossible imperatives. But.... like you said yesterday, we all see what we wanna see. I love this post more than words can express.
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