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Post by aquaduct on Aug 3, 2016 16:00:00 GMT -5
Peter - I know how fond you are of lay people popping off, but it seems to me that the shift is underway and it's only a matter of when and not so much if any more. I think advances in the electric car tech will continue to improve and gain more acceptance. Not in BF Montana maybe but in larger cities. I don't have any problem with lay people "popping off". Discussion and exchange of ideas is how we all learn. But consider, I can buy a new King Ranch F250 crew cab 4x4 for sticker for less than a Tesla Model S. My wife and I own 3 cars. If you also take into account my 2 children's cars which I paid for, that's 5 vehicles that I bought for less than the theoretical cost of the "cheap" Tesla Model 3. I can put 300 miles range in my 2003 Ranger in 5 minutes virtually anywhere in the country. And that range is the same year round unlike electrics which lose range in the winter. I can head any direction at any time I want without having an app to make sure I can refuel when I get to where ever I end up. And the list just goes on. Electric cars can't compete. They'll always be 3% of the market at best.
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Post by fauxmaha on Aug 3, 2016 16:08:16 GMT -5
Peter - I know how fond you are of lay people popping off, but it seems to me that the shift is underway and it's only a matter of when and not so much if any more. I think advances in the electric car tech will continue to improve and gain more acceptance. Not in BF Montana maybe but in larger cities. This is what I don't understand. For a new technology to displace an entrenched technology (ie, cars replacing horse drawn buggies), the new technology has to provide compelling, non-incremental benefits. There is a reason that cars went from being non-existent to commonplace in less than a generation. It's the reason we've seen smartphones becomes universal in less than a decade. What is the compelling case for electric cars? Seems to me that the story so far is that we are just one or two or three more generations away from when electric cars will only be marginally inconvenient compared to existing cars. How is that ever going to be good enough? Universal adoption requires that the "Average Joe" sees compelling, irresistible financial or lifestyle benefits before he is going to drop his money on these. I get that if you are a technology enthusiast like Gene, these things have inherent appeal. I also get (sort of) the idea that they present environmental benefits, although I think an honest accounting of these cars would end up showing they aren't as "green" as we think. The average working guy, today, can buy a reliable, late model car for $10k or less. The cost of fuel for a year's worth of driving will run $2,500 to $3,000. If and when electric cars can cut those numbers by 30% or more, adoption will be nearly instantaneous. Until then, I just don't see it.
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Post by theevan on Aug 3, 2016 16:30:02 GMT -5
Meanwhile, our intrepid Editor and erstwhile Travel Writer has yet to pop for a smarty-pants phone...and no golly-gee CV transmission either.
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Post by billhammond on Aug 3, 2016 16:45:29 GMT -5
Meanwhile, our intrepid Editor and erstwhile Travel Writer has yet to pop for a smarty-pants phone...and no golly-gee CV transmission either. Correct.
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Post by Doug on Aug 3, 2016 16:49:10 GMT -5
The reason majorminor is right is efficiency. Internal combustion engines are just not efficient, at best in the 40% range and mostly down around 25%. Most of the power produced by burning gas in internal combustion engines is lost in heat. Even burning oil in elec generation will give you more than double the output as they are set up to convert fuel to heat to elec vs a internal combustion engine where fuel is converted to motion & wasted heat. More efficiency means more dollars. Probably cost us the same to drive but somewhere up the line somebody will be making more money. We subsidized the internal combustion engine market buy building roads for the to run on and a bunch of other things. Would they have come along anyway, sure. Just like the charging stations are coming long. Stables became stable/gas stations and gas stations will become gas stations/charging stations. I'd guess 20 yrs till most vehicles are electric and it will be harder to find a gas station than a charging station. But I'm also guessing someone will still be driving my 67 VW.
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Post by patrick on Aug 3, 2016 17:04:48 GMT -5
No one who buys a King Ranch F250 crew cab 4x4 is interested in a Model S, and no one who buys a Model S is interested in a King Ranch F250 crew cab 4x4.
The competition for the Model S is the Porsche 911, some Cadillacs and BMWs and similar cars.
Yes, used cars are cheaper than brand new luxury cars.
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Post by fauxmaha on Aug 3, 2016 17:06:04 GMT -5
The reason majorminor is right is efficiency. Internal combustion engines are just not efficient, at best in the 40% range and mostly down around 25%. Most of the power produced by burning gas in internal combustion engines is lost in heat. Even burning oil in elec generation will give you more than double the output as they are set up to convert fuel to heat to elec vs a internal combustion engine where fuel is converted to motion & wasted heat. More efficiency means more dollars. Probably cost us the same to drive but somewhere up the line somebody will be making more money. We subsidized the internal combustion engine market buy building roads for the to run on and a bunch of other things. Would they have come along anyway, sure. Just like the charging stations are coming long. Stables became stable/gas stations and gas stations will become gas stations/charging stations. I'd guess 20 yrs till most vehicles are electric and it will be harder to find a gas station than a charging station. But I'm also guessing someone will still be driving my 67 VW. Do a Google hit on "Rankine Cycle".
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Post by aquaduct on Aug 3, 2016 17:32:28 GMT -5
No one who buys a King Ranch F250 crew cab 4x4 is interested in a Model S, and no one who buys a Model S is interested in a King Ranch F250 crew cab 4x4. The competition for the Model S is the Porsche 911, some Cadillacs and BMWs and similar cars. Yes, used cars are cheaper than brand new luxury cars. And they're still not competitive.
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Post by gbacklin on Aug 3, 2016 17:42:33 GMT -5
I did a little research and as mentioned the cost of the stations are in the Model S. Never in my wildest dreams would I believe that electric will rule, the oil industry is too big for that. All I know is that 10 years ago It was said it couldn't be done at all. Then the Roadster for 6 figures and once again, it's cute but never mass produced and way too expensive. Then 2012 and the Model S for averaging 80k. Even for me that is too much thus why I leased it. I have a Model 3 on order and will probably be about 40k when all said and done. When Ethan graduates in 3 years, I'm done. I have put my kids through private schools and college Ethan at the School of the Art Institute (where I could purchase a few Model S's ) I have spent my career going against the grain when IBM I went DEC, when Windows I went OS/2, then went NeXTSTEP when everyone said I was crazy at 12k an computer no one will ever spend that much. Without that there would have been no iPhone/iPad/Apple Watch. I also had heard for about 25 years Apple is history. If I'm lucky I've got 20 years left and have enjoyed the ride and still do. As Harry said "...stepping off of this dirty bus, first time I've understood, got to be the goin not the getting there that's good, that's a thought for keeping if I could. Got to be the goin not the getting there that's good" Do I even think that my violins will make me rich and famous ? Nah but that's how I want my journey to end, just as it began a long time ago. Folks, I'm a tinkerer and chronically curious. When all is said and done, it's been one heck of a ride and I'm glad I've recorded a lot of it so I can always close my eyes and travel back in time. Tesla for me is fascinating and if they tank tomorrow, I at least have had the experience of enjoying the technology. Nothing more nothing less
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Post by billhammond on Aug 3, 2016 17:46:14 GMT -5
I did a little research and as mentioned the cost of the stations are in the Model S. Never in my wildest dreams would I believe that electric will rule, the oil industry is too big for that. All I know is that 10 years ago It was said it couldn't be done at all. Then the Roadster for 6 figures and once again, it's cute but never mass produced and way too expensive. Then 2012 and the Model S for averaging 80k. Even for me that is too much thus why I leased it. I have a Model 3 on order and will probably be about 40k when all said and done. When Ethan graduates in 3 years, I'm done. I have put my kids through private schools and college Ethan at the School of the Art Institute (where I could purchase a few Model S's ) I have spent my career going against the grain when IBM I went DEC, when Windows I went OS/2, then went NeXTSTEP when everyone said I was crazy at 12k an computer no one will ever spend that much. Without that there would have been no iPhone/iPad/Apple Watch. I also had heard for about 25 years Apple is history. If I'm lucky I've got 20 years left and have enjoyed the ride and still do. As Harry said "...stepping off of this dirty bus, first time I've understood, got to be the goin not the getting there that's good, that's a thought for keeping if I could. Got to be the goin not the getting there that's good" Do I even think that my violins will make me rich and famous ? Nah but that's how I want my journey to end, just as it began a long time ago. Folks, I'm a tinkerer and chronically curious. When all is said and done, it's been one heck of a ride and I'm glad I've recorded a lot of it so I can always close my eyes and travel back in time. Tesla for me is fascinating and if they tank tomorrow, I at least have had the experience of enjoying the technology. Nothing more nothing less An admirable attitude indeed! And for those who may not know this, the Tesla S hauls ass if need be -- tried Ludicrous Mode yet, Gene?
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Post by millring on Aug 3, 2016 17:59:54 GMT -5
I almost bought an electric van but I was told that the static electricity would make my hair stand on end. I just don't have that kind of time to be fussing with my hair.
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Post by Cosmic Wonder on Aug 3, 2016 18:11:50 GMT -5
I almost bought an electric van fan but I was told that the static electricity would make my hair stand on end. I just don't have that kind of time to be fussing with my hair. There. Fixed it for you. Mike
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Post by Cosmic Wonder on Aug 3, 2016 18:20:57 GMT -5
No one who buys a King Ranch F250 crew cab 4x4 is interested in a Model S, and no one who buys a Model S is interested in a King Ranch F250 crew cab 4x4. Peter, I agree with you on almost everything, but; One must not paint with too broad a brush. I'm interested in the F 250, or more realistically, the GMC Denali crew 2500 with duramax and Max tow package. And I'm interested in the Tesla. No tesla will tow my 7500 lb Airstream, but a tesla all wheel drive luxery suv could be quite nice for tooling down to Corvallis to have dinner with our daughter in the winter. Horses for courses. Mike
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Post by Doug on Aug 3, 2016 18:38:42 GMT -5
The 2021 electric GMC 2500 will tow your Airstream.
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Post by jdd2 on Aug 3, 2016 18:51:22 GMT -5
yawn... (an old post)Hey, Aqua, how about that--isn't is ironic that they use your handle on a Prius hybrid...!
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Post by aquaduct on Aug 3, 2016 19:22:42 GMT -5
No one who buys a King Ranch F250 crew cab 4x4 is interested in a Model S, and no one who buys a Model S is interested in a King Ranch F250 crew cab 4x4. Peter, I agree with you on almost everything, but; One must not paint with too broad a brush. I'm interested in the F 250, or more realistically, the GMC Denali crew 2500 with duramax and Max tow package. And I'm interested in the Tesla. No tesla will tow my 7500 lb Airstream, but a tesla all wheel drive luxery suv could be quite nice for tooling down to Corvallis to have dinner with our daughter in the winter. Horses for courses. Mike And I certainly get that. Motorcycles aren't at all competitive with cars in any practical sense, but I'd spend a bunch more money on a bike than I would a car. Electric vehicles will possibly always have a niche market and I'm genuinely happy that Gene (or rather Gene's wife) loves the car. It works for them and that's great. But if you're talking about becoming a major part of the vehicle market you have to understand that there is no better fuel than petroleum out there. The most energy density, safe, easy to handle, simple to work with, cheap to manufacture and transport, etc. Add to that 150 years of refinement and real world proving of the technology along with a massive stock of used vehicles and industries that can keep them rolling and electric simply can't compete barring some kind of breakthrough. And I think Tesla and the government and the activist class are pumping smoke up your ass with their claims of being the next big thing. I have serious doubts that Tesla can survive long enough to ever offer a Model 3. They're running out of money and they're right in the middle of that very tricky spot when promises become bills to pay and they need to get volume out of thin air in order to pay them. Yes, I have taken that sled ride to hell and have watched that implosion from the inside. Nothing coming out of Tesla these days makes much sense. I hope I'm wrong since I'd hate to see anyone else go through what I went through (except maybe Musk and the guys at the top, they'll get their money) but it just doesn't feel right.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 3, 2016 19:25:31 GMT -5
"Refueling" is free? I'm not sure I get how that works. I recently drove 900+ miles twice in my Camry. Iola Wisconsin to the Minnesota/Canadian border and back. I filled up before starting and at the border before returning. Took less than a tank for the one way trip. Maybe ten minutes total refueling each trip. Approximately $60.00 worth of gasoline for a 900 mile trip? How would that experience compare with the same trip with the Tesla?
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Post by gbacklin on Aug 3, 2016 20:43:32 GMT -5
I did a little research and as mentioned the cost of the stations are in the Model S. Never in my wildest dreams would I believe that electric will rule, the oil industry is too big for that. All I know is that 10 years ago It was said it couldn't be done at all. Then the Roadster for 6 figures and once again, it's cute but never mass produced and way too expensive. Then 2012 and the Model S for averaging 80k. Even for me that is too much thus why I leased it. I have a Model 3 on order and will probably be about 40k when all said and done. When Ethan graduates in 3 years, I'm done. I have put my kids through private schools and college Ethan at the School of the Art Institute (where I could purchase a few Model S's ) I have spent my career going against the grain when IBM I went DEC, when Windows I went OS/2, then went NeXTSTEP when everyone said I was crazy at 12k an computer no one will ever spend that much. Without that there would have been no iPhone/iPad/Apple Watch. I also had heard for about 25 years Apple is history. If I'm lucky I've got 20 years left and have enjoyed the ride and still do. As Harry said "...stepping off of this dirty bus, first time I've understood, got to be the goin not the getting there that's good, that's a thought for keeping if I could. Got to be the goin not the getting there that's good" Do I even think that my violins will make me rich and famous ? Nah but that's how I want my journey to end, just as it began a long time ago. Folks, I'm a tinkerer and chronically curious. When all is said and done, it's been one heck of a ride and I'm glad I've recorded a lot of it so I can always close my eyes and travel back in time. Tesla for me is fascinating and if they tank tomorrow, I at least have had the experience of enjoying the technology. Nothing more nothing less An admirable attitude indeed! And for those who may not know this, the Tesla S hauls ass if need be -- tried Ludicrous Mode yet, Gene? Yes Bill, after I reserved my Model 3, the salesman said that anytime I wanted to have a Model S for a day, let him know. I brought Ethan with me and I asked Ethan what would you like to try ? It was the P 90 D with Ludicrous Mode and to go from 0-60 in 3.2 seconds is insane. My 70 D will donit in only 5.2
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Post by gbacklin on Aug 3, 2016 23:42:07 GMT -5
"Refueling" is free? I'm not sure I get how that works. I recently drove 900+ miles twice in my Camry. Iola Wisconsin to the Minnesota/Canadian border and back. I filled up before starting and at the border before returning. Took less than a tank for the one way trip. Maybe ten minutes total refueling each trip. Approximately $60.00 worth of gasoline for a 900 mile trip? How would that experience compare with the same trip with the Tesla? Simply put, it can't and I never claimed that it could. You win, I lose. I also said my internal gas tank is only good for around 200 miles The last time I drove over 900 miles was an 18 hour trip from Orlando Florida to my home in Illinois bringing back my Mother's remains to be buried. I have more years behind me than ahead. I have no more relatives left on my side from my parents generation. I am self taught on just about everything in my life (except for the violins, did not want to screw that up) I have been addicted to preserving history since I was a little kid when I received a Globe-Corder tape recorder for a gift and still have. (picture attached) I appreciate time and try to capture as much of it as I can; on film, video and audio. I did not start this post with the purpose of trying to prove anything, rather just sharing my excitement of a really cool technology. One that I had to just experience before I sing like a frog. Will I ever play guitar like Bill or Lonnie, play fiddle like Joy, ever spell Marshall's last name correctly, no never, never, never, and I don't want to because it is just that fact that allows me to appreciate my friendship with them. This surprise moment made every penny I have spent and will spend on the car, as Ethan had no clue we were getting one. Like I said earlier, if Tesla goes under tomorrow, I don't care. I have had the experience of owning and driving one and that experience is one I can look back on and close my eyes and relive just like my old tapes I recorded on my Globe-Corder.
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Post by aquaduct on Aug 4, 2016 5:47:15 GMT -5
yawn... (an old post)Hey, Aqua, how about that--isn't is ironic that they use your handle on a Prius hybrid...! Hmmm, the U.S. has roughly 3 times the population and the car market that Japan does along with 24 times the land mass and our gas prices are half that of Japan. Once again context-free Googling appears to prove something but I'll be damned if I can figure out what it is.
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