Deleted
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Korea
Jan 6, 2018 11:47:06 GMT -5
Post by Deleted on Jan 6, 2018 11:47:06 GMT -5
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Korea
Jan 6, 2018 11:52:29 GMT -5
Post by Marshall on Jan 6, 2018 11:52:29 GMT -5
And therein lies the danger. As we can see from the irritable id that manifests itself in his tweets, Trump believes that he has been an exceptionally successful president, who deserves credit for the absence of deaths from plane crashes, a soaring stock market, and a tax cut rammed through on a completely partisan basis by a Republican majority that has thirsted for little else for decades. Those who made fun of his claims that he is smarter than his generals and that there is no need for a fully staffed State Department because he is around, or mocked his boasts that his nuclear button is bigger and better than Kim Jung Un’s, should stifle their chuckles. This is serious. The president feels vindicated, smart, and self-confident beyond the outlandish egotism of his campaign days in 2016.
That's sobering for a hung over Saturday morning. A wake up slap in the face.
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Korea
Jan 6, 2018 12:18:03 GMT -5
Post by Deleted on Jan 6, 2018 12:18:03 GMT -5
I think Trump is just making it very plain to Kim et al that any attack on the US will be dealt with severely. None of this proportional response nonsense. I don't see the problem. They need to know that. Under his predecessor, they may have thought that push might not even lead to shove. Now it will lead to annihilation. Hopefully a sobering realization. I like John Wayne too.
"You tangle with me, I’ll have your hide." - John Wayne
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Korea
Jan 6, 2018 19:09:00 GMT -5
Post by Marshall on Jan 6, 2018 19:09:00 GMT -5
There's this attitude that we are only responding to threats by NK. Truth is most of NK's launches, etc are a response to US military exercises right off their shore.
What would we do if Russia held joint military exercises with Cuba in the Caribbean?
NK are an awful regime. I pity the North Korean people. I fear for the South Korean people. We are not totally without sin.
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Korea
Jan 6, 2018 19:21:13 GMT -5
Post by brucemacneill on Jan 6, 2018 19:21:13 GMT -5
There's this attitude that we are only responding to threats by NK. Truth is most of NK's launches, etc are a response to US military exercises right off their shore. What would we do if Russia held joint military exercises with Cuba in the Caribbean? NK are an awful regime. I pity the North Korean people. I fear for the South Korean people. We are not totally without sin. As I recall in the Russia Cuba thing Kennedy embargoed Cuba so the Russians backed off and took the nukes away. That's sort of what we're doing with NK now. I'm not accepting that we're the sinners here.
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Post by Doug on Jan 6, 2018 20:00:39 GMT -5
I don't think it matters if we are sinners or not.
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Korea
Jan 7, 2018 0:36:52 GMT -5
Post by Marshall on Jan 7, 2018 0:36:52 GMT -5
There's this attitude that we are only responding to threats by NK. Truth is most of NK's launches, etc are a response to US military exercises right off their shore. What would we do if Russia held joint military exercises with Cuba in the Caribbean? NK are an awful regime. I pity the North Korean people. I fear for the South Korean people. We are not totally without sin. As I recall in the Russia Cuba thing Kennedy embargoed Cuba so the Russians backed off and took the nukes away. That's sort of what we're doing with NK now. I'm not accepting that we're the sinners here. So could NK be firing missiles and nuclear testing so we might take our Fleet and military exercises away from their shores? Or maybe their doing so to prove that if we decide to bump them from so close that we, so safe and sound in our beds in the US of A, wouldn't escape unscathed? I think they KNOW we could wipe them off the face of the earth. They're trying to show us that if we endeavored to do such, that we would not escape unscathed. It's a defensive strategy. Not an offensive one.
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Korea
Jan 7, 2018 5:36:02 GMT -5
Post by brucemacneill on Jan 7, 2018 5:36:02 GMT -5
As I recall in the Russia Cuba thing Kennedy embargoed Cuba so the Russians backed off and took the nukes away. That's sort of what we're doing with NK now. I'm not accepting that we're the sinners here. So could NK be firing missiles and nuclear testing so we might take our Fleet and military exercises away from their shores? Or maybe their doing so to prove that if we decide to bump them from so close that we, so safe and sound in our beds in the US of A, wouldn't escape unscathed? I think they KNOW we could wipe them off the face of the earth. They're trying to show us that if we endeavored to do such, that we would not escape unscathed. It's a defensive strategy. Not an offensive one. I find it offensive.
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Korea
Jan 7, 2018 7:14:05 GMT -5
Post by Marshall on Jan 7, 2018 7:14:05 GMT -5
Trust me. I have no love lost for North Korea. I think it's a scary world where so many nations (rogue or not) have the A-bomb. Somebody is going to set one off in the next 50 years. And a frightened regime with the big bomb, and no economy to speak of, with international sanctions galore, is a likely candidate to do it, or sell the technology to some terrorist group who'd LOVE to get their hands on one.
There's nothing to like about that.
But the lesson from Gaddafi and Libya for these rogue regimes is; there's no safety in making accommodations with the west in favor of giving up nukes.
We try to ploy the carrot and the stick. So far that has not worked with NK at all. And Trump is all stick. But you take a stick to a hornets nest, and you're likely to get stung.
No good answer I can see.
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Korea
Jan 7, 2018 7:17:45 GMT -5
Post by Marshall on Jan 7, 2018 7:17:45 GMT -5
At least on Twitter, Trump is chiding Jina to get involved. It's in their best interest to have a less volatile, but non-US military ally right on their border.
That's our only hope with NK.
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Korea
Jan 7, 2018 7:29:07 GMT -5
Post by Marshall on Jan 7, 2018 7:29:07 GMT -5
Kim Jung Whatever is the scariest of his family dynasty. We've hoped with each succeeding generation, that some moxy will come into play, and they'll start playing ball with the materialistic capitalism that has won over the old communist world. But this guy (and his cabal) have dug in deeper.
Have I said, "It's scary," yet?
(I think we need Tom Cruise's Mission Impossible team to take this guy out. . . . , all within an hour and a half.)
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Korea
Jan 7, 2018 9:17:29 GMT -5
Post by jdd2 on Jan 7, 2018 9:17:29 GMT -5
Somehow, you never hear about the missiles being launched as a part of the US/ROK drills. How could that be..!?!??
You can focus on all the craziness there (as you could in the US), but that regime has persisted in spite of many US-side machinations.
They aren't stupid. They looked around the world at what the US was doing, and developed (presumed) nukes, and (presumed) delivery tools, in order to insure their survival. Three carriers (and subs) off their coast is a drill and not a threat?
They're thanking themselves for making the only rational choice.
The US has no leverage. Sure, the US can say "we'll blow you up," but everybody worries that the cost of doing that will be too high.
The chinese have been playing along--appeasing the US, but the US has no leverage with them, either. Early on, trump tossed the TPP without even considering a deal.
Oh..., we have another chit that can be used with the chinese? If so, please call Mr Tillerson with your advice.
ROK (south korea) is already in the chinese orbit, at the mercy of minor changes in chinese trade policy (their major trading partner by far)--china can have significant and quick impact on the ROK economy, and while I'm not saying it's a good pact, trump wants to now renegotiate the ROK-US free trade pact. If I were ROK, or some company there, I'd be asking about who butters my bread.
And ROK does not want to be the pawn that is played in the US's move to eliminate a threat to itself. (Sorry ROK, but while we were always talking about defending you, now we have to defend the US, and we'll have to think of you as collateral damage. That doesn't go over too well in ROK.)
The US involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan led to the lack of focus/attention on Asia. The neocons let DPRK off scot free--as an afterthought. (in spite of the supposed obama "pivot"--a good idea, but much too late).
It's like that scene from Looper:
Abe: [Joe has been teaching himself French] Why the fuck French? Joe: I'm going to France. Abe: You should go to China. Joe: I'm going to France. Abe: I'm from the future. You should go to China.
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Korea
Jan 7, 2018 9:30:43 GMT -5
Post by jdd2 on Jan 7, 2018 9:30:43 GMT -5
And wouldn't it be more probable (sneaky), that any DPRK nuke would be delivered to LA or Frisco by ship?
"Hey, there, US, we have a nuke in one of your ports. So let's talk..."
That's what I'd do, and I hope someone has thought about that.
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Deleted
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Korea
Jan 7, 2018 10:06:59 GMT -5
Post by Deleted on Jan 7, 2018 10:06:59 GMT -5
And wouldn't it be more probable (sneaky), that any DPRK nuke would be delivered to LA or Frisco by ship? "Hey, there, US, we have a nuke in one of your ports. So let's talk..." That's what I'd do, and I hope someone has thought about that. Yes, and more probable still is that nuke delivered via ship was placed on the ship by a non-nation state terrorist organization that bought it from the DPRK at the Lunatic Weapon Exchange in Pyongyang. That's a facetious summation of one point Mr. Whoops I Guess I Was Wrong About Iraq and Sorry All You Dead People Cohen makes, but nevertheless more likely than then launching one outright.
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Korea
Jan 7, 2018 11:38:15 GMT -5
Post by millring on Jan 7, 2018 11:38:15 GMT -5
Mr. Whoops I Guess I Was Wrong About Iraq and Sorry All You Dead People Cohen I bet his monogram doesn't fit on his shirt pocket.
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Korea
Jan 7, 2018 12:25:09 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by Cosmic Wonder on Jan 7, 2018 12:25:09 GMT -5
So, to sum up this thread, it’s the end of the world, sometime in the next year.
That kind of sucks.
Mike
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Korea
Jan 7, 2018 13:07:30 GMT -5
Post by RickW on Jan 7, 2018 13:07:30 GMT -5
Paul, the difference between Iraq and Korea are many. Mainly, that no one gave a crap about Iraq, they way they (Russia and China) do about Korea. And of course, there was no South Korea sitting there waiting to be sacrificed.
I agree with everything the writer said. It would be a horrendous war, with massive consequences. Hopefully Trump is not such a complete asshat that he won’t recognize it. But the interesting thing is, I’m sure the Chinese are not interested in Pyongyang much either, at this point in time, other than as a buffer. They don’t want psycho man peddling nuclear weapons either, they have long enough borders and enough rogue groups as well, that one of those bombs could end up in their cities. I would not be surprised at all at either a Chinese invasion, or a forced regime change. And if they were really smart, they’d have a discussion with the US first, to quell the panic.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 7, 2018 13:47:19 GMT -5
My point on Iraq, Rick, was more to highlight my admitted bias against the author, and not to compare the conflicts. Sometimes people can be so smart that they are stupid.
I think the Chinese are more interested in not having a failed state on their borders than the older notion that the DPRK can serve as a buffer. China is well more connected to the world round it than they were in 1950, for instance, and instability of any flavor is bad for "The Economy."
Indeed, they don't want Kim selling nukes.
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Korea
Jan 7, 2018 17:10:38 GMT -5
Post by epaul on Jan 7, 2018 17:10:38 GMT -5
It is time to leave the 50’s. Just as with the Middle East, the reasons that led to our involvement in the Korean penisula have gone away, but our involvement hasn’t.
I would dust off Nixon and announce a policy of Koreafication. Unlike the land mass we called South Vietnam, Korea has a stable government that is supported by a native population that views itself as a nation and has a vested interest in supporting itself as a nation. Unlike Vietnamization, Koreafication could work, and should work.
We inform all concerned, SK, NK, China, (and Japan), that we are embarking on a five-year or seven-year plan during which we will remove ourselves as a military defender and nuclear umbrella for South Korea. The degree to which we equip, supply, and build South Korea’s military will be up to South Korea. I think it is vital that we give South Korea the option of installing tactical nukes with short range delivery systems as part of their defense package… but that will be up to the South Koreans. We never should have taken the nukes out of South Korea ( I don’t know whose decision it was to have them removed from South Korea, theirs or ours, but it was a damn dumb idea.).
As part of the Koreafication process, we would have regular negotiations with NK and China (and with Japan on the side and sly). I expect that there would be negotiations to “de-nuke” the Korean peninsula, but until and unless South Korea has the nukes in place to bargain away, these negotiations will never go anywhere. If South Korea is to have the ability to fully defend itself, that ability clearly requires that South Korea has the nukes to offset North Korea’s advantage in this regard. Unless countered, NK nukes are a significant blackmail card that could be used to castrate South Korea. China can bluster, but it is eminently clear, fair and reasonable that as China stood by and allowed NK to nuke up, it can not deny South Korea’s right to do the same. That is a go to the wall right. If China doesn’t like it, they can de-Nuke the North.
I suspect South Korea understands, or will soon understand, that the United States will not risk the nuking of a couple U.S. cities in order to respond to a targeted North Korean nuclear attack against the South. Sure we have the ability to raze North Korea to the ground, but, fun as that would be [irony], is that worth the risk of a couple missiles hitting Los Angeles and Chicago? I expect that the North Koreans and South Koreans both suspect that neither one them matters enough to us that we would risk a couple of our cites to a nuclear attack to raze or defend either. And I think their suspicion is right. Only an attack on the U.S. proper will cause us to engage in a nuclear conflict.
It is in our interest and South Korea’s interest that the defense of their country lies in their hands, not ours.
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Korea
Jan 7, 2018 18:58:35 GMT -5
Post by brucemacneill on Jan 7, 2018 18:58:35 GMT -5
It is time to leave the 50’s. Just as with the Middle East, the reasons that led to our involvement in the Korean penisula have gone away, but our involvement hasn’t. I would dust off Nixon and announce a policy of Koreafication. Unlike the land mass we called South Vietnam, Korea has a stable government that is supported by a native population that views itself as a nation and has a vested interest in supporting itself as a nation. Unlike Vietnamization, Koreafication could work, and should work. We inform all concerned, SK, NK, China, (and Japan), that we are embarking on a five-year or seven-year plan during which we will remove ourselves as a military defender and nuclear umbrella for South Korea. The degree to which we equip, supply, and build South Korea’s military will be up to South Korea. I think it is vital that we give South Korea the option of installing tactical nukes with short range delivery systems as part of their defense package… but that will be up to the South Koreans. We never should have taken the nukes out of South Korea ( I don’t know whose decision it was to have them removed from South Korea, theirs or ours, but it was a damn dumb idea.). As part of the Koreafication process, we would have regular negotiations with NK and China (and with Japan on the side and sly). I expect that there would be negotiations to “de-nuke” the Korean peninsula, but until and unless South Korea has the nukes in place to bargain away, these negotiations will never go anywhere. If South Korea is to have the ability to fully defend itself, that ability clearly requires that South Korea has the nukes to offset North Korea’s advantage in this regard. Unless countered, NK nukes are a significant blackmail card that would not have to be used in order to castrate South Korea. China can bluster, but it is eminently clear, fair and reasonable that as China stood by and allowed NK to nuke up, it can not deny South Korea’s right to do the same. That is a go to the wall right. If China doesn’t like it, they can de-Nuke the North. I suspect South Korea understands, or will soon understand, that the United States will not risk the nuking of a couple U.S. cities in order to respond to a targeted North Korean nuclear attack against the South. Sure we have the ability to raze North Korea to the ground, but, fun as that would be [ironic], is that worth the risk of a couple missiles hitting Los Angeles and Chicago? I expect that the North Koreans and South Koreans both suspect that neither one them matters enough to us that we would risk a couple of our cites to a nuclear attack to raze or defend either. And I think their suspicion is right. Only an attack on the U.S. proper will cause us to engage in a nuclear conflict. It is in our interest and South Korea’s interest that the defense of their country lies in their hands, not ours. I think you've read too much science fiction.
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