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Post by aquaduct on Nov 13, 2019 22:37:57 GMT -5
...and some minor mention of self-driving cars. Not to start an argument or anything, but we have discussed this kind of stuff before. Of course being in the business for a few decades it's about what I've predicted. I remember Jeff saying at some point that the projected length of the life of a technology is mostly related to how long the technology has already existed. Looks to be continued proof of that axiom. A Decade of EVs |
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Post by TKennedy on Nov 13, 2019 23:08:53 GMT -5
I thought you were talking about ElectroVoice. Love mine.
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Post by jdd2 on Nov 13, 2019 23:23:54 GMT -5
I saw it as EVO, and was expecting a recipe.
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Post by RickW on Nov 14, 2019 1:06:02 GMT -5
Saw an interesting article a few days ago on the issue as well. BC produces a lot of hydro power. Somewhere around 17 gigawatts of power. We are building another massive dam, site C, which has been attacked continuously by everyone for the cost, the land it will cover, etc. It will product another 1.5 gigawatts. That’s it. The estimate if we move to electric vehicles is that just within BC, we’ll need around 30 gigawatts of electricity being produced. Big delta, and one really frigging big damn is going to make a fraction of it.
Now, we’ve been over this before. But that really does hit home. We not only need to produce that power, but the grid has to be build to move it. How many solar panels, wind turbines, tidal turbines, etc., how many transmission towers and lines do we need to make? At what cost to the environment? Looking at that it doesn’t seem to be a much better solution. We would have hydro infrastructure everywhere.
The person who wrote the article was not anti climate change. He was just a very depressed individual who was wondering if the green revolution folks are’t leading us into an impossible to achieve solution.
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Post by aquaduct on Nov 14, 2019 6:05:46 GMT -5
I thought you were talking about ElectroVoice. Love mine. I've got a 12 inch ElectroVoice in the Mesa that I play with the 335. Who says we can't be topical? |
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Post by aquaduct on Nov 14, 2019 6:08:15 GMT -5
Saw an interesting article a few days ago on the issue as well. BC produces a lot of hydro power. Somewhere around 17 gigawatts of power. We are building another massive dam, site C, which has been attacked continuously by everyone for the cost, the land it will cover, etc. It will product another 1.5 gigawatts. That’s it. The estimate if we move to electric vehicles is that just within BC, we’ll need around 30 gigawatts of electricity being produced. Big delta, and one really frigging big damn is going to make a fraction of it. Now, we’ve been over this before. But that really does hit home. We not only need to produce that power, but the grid has to be build to move it. How many solar panels, wind turbines, tidal turbines, etc., how many transmission towers and lines do we need to make? At what cost to the environment? Looking at that it doesn’t seem to be a much better solution. We would have hydro infrastructure everywhere. The person who wrote the article was not anti climate change. He was just a very depressed individual who was wondering if the green revolution folks are’t leading us into an impossible to achieve solution. I don't know anyone who's anti climate change (whatever that means). I just know folks like myself who are anti wishful thinking. |
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Post by Cosmic Wonder on Nov 14, 2019 8:42:03 GMT -5
I have a major problem with this article. In it, the author states that diesel production didn’t benefit from government subsidies. Ok, maybe not directly to the end consumer, but the oil companies got and continue to get huge subsidies from the Gov. www.fuelfreedom.org/oil-company-subsidies/My daughters boyfriend just bought a new car. His first. It’s the all electric plug in Hyundai Kona. It’s really nice. Niypta and I checjpjed it out when he was over the other day. Comfortable, good visibility, never go to a gas station again. It’s now on the short list for when we replace the Camry. Mike |
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Post by aquaduct on Nov 14, 2019 8:57:11 GMT -5
I have a major problem with this article. In it, the author states that diesel production didn’t benefit from government subsidies. Ok, maybe not directly to the end consumer, but the oil companies got and continue to get huge subsidies from the Gov. www.fuelfreedom.org/oil-company-subsidies/Oh for Christ sake, it's the ghost of TDR. Rambling about non-existent oil company subsidies that don't exist outside of the feverish minds of idiots like this. All based on a paper published somewhere during the Clinton Administration. If I recall TDR's list of subsidies (including but not limited to home heating oil subsidies to senior citizens) wound up with a theoretical cost per gallon of $15. This guy's guess has at least come down to about $6. Hey, even in the land of fictional math we're getting better! |
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Post by Cosmic Wonder on Nov 14, 2019 9:13:26 GMT -5
Oh for Christ’s sake. Fossil fuel apologists like you continue to say white is black and black is white,
Mike
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Post by lar on Nov 14, 2019 9:16:44 GMT -5
Saw an interesting article a few days ago on the issue as well. BC produces a lot of hydro power. Somewhere around 17 gigawatts of power. We are building another massive dam, site C, which has been attacked continuously by everyone for the cost, the land it will cover, etc. It will product another 1.5 gigawatts. That’s it. The estimate if we move to electric vehicles is that just within BC, we’ll need around 30 gigawatts of electricity being produced. Big delta, and one really frigging big damn is going to make a fraction of it. Now, we’ve been over this before. But that really does hit home. We not only need to produce that power, but the grid has to be build to move it. How many solar panels, wind turbines, tidal turbines, etc., how many transmission towers and lines do we need to make? At what cost to the environment? Looking at that it doesn’t seem to be a much better solution. We would have hydro infrastructure everywhere. The person who wrote the article was not anti climate change. He was just a very depressed individual who was wondering if the green revolution folks are’t leading us into an impossible to achieve solution. Lately I've been wondering when someone would bring up the fact that as we consume more electricity it's going to be necessary to produce more. And that's not just confined to electric cars. It seems that everywhere I turn there are more and more things that run on electricity. I saw an article the other day that some municipalities in California are banning natural gas hook-ups in new construction. That's going to mean a lot more electric ranges, electric heating systems, and electric hot water heaters. The article says it's a trend that is growing. And that' not even figuring in the small consumer stuff that runs on batteries. It seems that just about everywhere there are attempts to use renewable energy; wind, water, etc. there are push backs from environmentalists because of the environmental cost of creating the infrastructure. Wind suffers from the "not in my backyard" syndrome as well. My impression has been that the folks who are hell bent on converting to electric cars haven't give much thought to where the electricity is going to come from or whether it might be necessary to involve fossil fuels in the production of electricity . Regardless of the issues that exist today I am confident that we'll find a way to overcome the obstacles and we'll find a way to make electric vehicles (autos, trucks, tractors, ships, boats, airplanes, etc.) and the means to produce the electricity practical. I don't think the technology for all of that exists at the moment, or maybe it exists but nobody's figured out how to put it all together. I think it's likely that new technologies we can't even imagine right now, will be at the heart of the development. If that's the case none of the forecasts will be valid. |
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Post by Cosmic Wonder on Nov 14, 2019 9:28:05 GMT -5
Lar, we just had a energy audit on our house. (Required in Portland when selling a house) I was surprised to be told by the guy that our electric water heater was better, ie cheaper to run than a gas one. I had assumed the opposite.
Mike
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Post by Marshall on Nov 14, 2019 9:36:06 GMT -5
Saw an interesting article a few days ago on the issue as well. BC produces a lot of hydro power. Somewhere around 17 gigawatts of power. We are building another massive dam, site C, which has been attacked continuously by everyone for the cost, the land it will cover, etc. It will product another 1.5 gigawatts. That’s it. The estimate if we move to electric vehicles is that just within BC, we’ll need around 30 gigawatts of electricity being produced. Big delta, and one really frigging big damn is going to make a fraction of it. Now, we’ve been over this before. But that really does hit home. We not only need to produce that power, but the grid has to be build to move it. How many solar panels, wind turbines, tidal turbines, etc., how many transmission towers and lines do we need to make? At what cost to the environment? Looking at that it doesn’t seem to be a much better solution. We would have hydro infrastructure everywhere. The person who wrote the article was not anti climate change. He was just a very depressed individual who was wondering if the green revolution folks are’t leading us into an impossible to achieve solution. Haven't read the article yet. But something in your post struck me. I think you're not aware of the infrastructure for gasoline. The junk gets drilled somewhere in the world, is put on massive tanker ships built specifically for that purpose and shipped around the world. Ever seen an oil refinery? Talk about ugly infrastructure. And there are massive pipes carrying much of it across the land. And tanker trucks. And railroad tanker cars. And lovely gas stations dotted across the landscape. There's lots of infrastructure there. We humanoids take up a lot space and resources just so we can get our Big Mac at the driveup window. |
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Post by majorminor on Nov 14, 2019 9:46:24 GMT -5
We humanoids take up a lot space and resources just so we can get our Big Mac Filet O' Fish at the driveup window. |
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Post by majorminor on Nov 14, 2019 9:50:31 GMT -5
Fellas - this global warming thing is going to work out the way it will work out. All the gyration and drama is just that.
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Post by Marshall on Nov 14, 2019 10:08:42 GMT -5
Fellas - this global warming thing is going to work out the way it will work out. All the gyration and drama is just that. That's easy for you to say in Montana   And I'm not just picking on you. We're all part of the irreversible process. Buckle up Buckaroo |
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Post by RickW on Nov 14, 2019 10:48:26 GMT -5
Saw an interesting article a few days ago on the issue as well. BC produces a lot of hydro power. Somewhere around 17 gigawatts of power. We are building another massive dam, site C, which has been attacked continuously by everyone for the cost, the land it will cover, etc. It will product another 1.5 gigawatts. That’s it. The estimate if we move to electric vehicles is that just within BC, we’ll need around 30 gigawatts of electricity being produced. Big delta, and one really frigging big damn is going to make a fraction of it. Now, we’ve been over this before. But that really does hit home. We not only need to produce that power, but the grid has to be build to move it. How many solar panels, wind turbines, tidal turbines, etc., how many transmission towers and lines do we need to make? At what cost to the environment? Looking at that it doesn’t seem to be a much better solution. We would have hydro infrastructure everywhere. The person who wrote the article was not anti climate change. He was just a very depressed individual who was wondering if the green revolution folks are’t leading us into an impossible to achieve solution. Haven't read the article yet. But something in your post struck me. I think you're not aware of the infrastructure for gasoline. The junk gets drilled somewhere in the world, is put on massive tanker ships built specifically for that purpose and shipped around the world. Ever seen an oil refinery? Talk about ugly infrastructure. And there are massive pipes carrying much of it across the land. And tanker trucks. And railroad tanker cars. And lovely gas stations dotted across the landscape. There's lots of infrastructure there. We humanoids take up a lot space and resources just so we can get our Big Mac at the driveup window. The point of my post is that this infrastructure doesn't exist. We don't have those sources of electricity, and if a dam that size is just a drop in the bucket, where is the rest going too come from? The oil industry is up and running. In Canada we are arguing about building new oil pipelines to move oil that is not needed. |
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Post by Marshall on Nov 14, 2019 10:52:20 GMT -5
...and some minor mention of self-driving cars. Not to start an argument or anything, but we have discussed this kind of stuff before. Of course being in the business for a few decades it's about what I've predicted. I remember Jeff saying at some point that the projected length of the life of a technology is mostly related to how long the technology has already existed. Looks to be continued proof of that axiom. A Decade of EVsThe article is good. Interesting that he predicts Euros and Chinese will go EV (and diesel). They (particularly China) are controlled economies and can dictate more. Plus China has to import it's oil and doesn't have the same oil infrastructure the US has. That plus the US is a big wide open country. I imagine we do a lot more distance driving than the Euros or the Japanese. China's a big place, but I don't imagine as many Chinese get on the road and drive out to the provinces on a regular basis. |
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Post by lar on Nov 14, 2019 10:53:58 GMT -5
Lar, we just had a energy audit on our house. (Required in Portland when selling a house) I was surprised to be told by the guy that our electric water heater was better, ie cheaper to run than a gas one. I had assumed the opposite. Mike I'm not especially surprised by that. I don't know what kind of water heater you have but I've read that the newer "on-demand" electric water heaters are much cheaper to operate and even though they cost more they more than pay for themselves over time. My comments weren't so much directed at cost of electricity production as it stands today as they were about the increased infrastructure that may be required to expand the grid to accommodate increased demand. Regardless of the means of increasing electricity to the grid, there is a cost that will be paid by the consumers. If we're going to try to replace fossil fuels for electricity production that requires new infrastructure to replace what's already there. That will need to be financed by consumers as well. New technologies that haven't even been conceived yet may well play a part in all of this so it's impossible at this point to predict what's going to happen or how much it might cost. The challenges, though, are something that need to be considered as plans are created. |
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Post by Marshall on Nov 14, 2019 10:57:07 GMT -5
The point of my post is that this infrastructure doesn't exist. We don't have those sources of electricity, and if a dam that size is just a drop in the bucket, where is the rest going too come from? The oil industry is up and running. In Canada we are arguing about building new oil pipelines to move oil that is not needed. There's lots of electric generating infrastructure in place already. The change will not happen over night. And, Yes, hydro will always be just a drop in the lake. I agree with the original article. Gas ain't going away. |
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Post by fauxmaha on Nov 14, 2019 16:58:33 GMT -5
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