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Post by sidheguitarmichael on Jan 8, 2020 1:50:38 GMT -5
Got to agree with Epaul. This day has been coming for years. How much was the US going to take from Iran? Maybe we should define some parameters here. Are we all in agreement that the US and Iran have been at war—on a sliding scale from warm to hot to cold to warm to hot again, etc., for just over 40 years? If there’s disagreement on that, I think it’s worth exploring. We are talking about a country that we have not had a formal diplomatic relationship with since Nov 1979, and who’s government actively celebrates that fact by burning an American flag each year in anniversary. Remember that our guys were shooting their guys in the late 80s. During the 40-year time frame—and I’m veering into opinion here because I might be missing something—the initial aggression that precedes each temperature flare up has been coming from the Iranian side, every time. I’m open to having my mind changed on that, if anyone wants to take a stab at it. As an aside, there is some evidence that the US learned lessons with Al Qaeda, going back to their (the org that became AQ) advising warlords and militias in Somalia in the early 90s on usage of RPGs against helicopters. Clinton’s reluctance to escalate the situation, and decision to pull troops, as well as his later decisions not to act on multiple "kill list" opportunities to take out OBL (Bin Laden) both emboldened OBL, and left him free to orchestrate 9/11. There are absolutely theoretical parallels between Somalia/OBL, and Iran/QS to be made, but they remain theoretical until we see how taking the option behind door #2 this time around actually pans out. But I digress. Are we in agreement about the USA’s relationship with Iran? Ukrainian airliner goes down in flames after takeoff from Tehran. WTF? Depends. Built by Boeing? (Too soon?)
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Post by sidheguitarmichael on Jan 8, 2020 2:02:33 GMT -5
I would trade them Saudi Arabia for an acceptance of Israel. Perhaps a homeland for the Palestinians could be located on one the Saudi oil fields. My dad and I have been joking—since the late 70s—that we could solve two problems at once by making a 20-mile wide strip of land along the southern border of AZ, NM, and TX the new Israel. No more Israel to unite against; they get more square footage; and it’s pretty clear that no country on earth is any better at defending a border. Just Saying.
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Post by epaul on Jan 8, 2020 2:07:00 GMT -5
So little is known. One of the unknowns, usually guys like Sulemani have pretty secretive travel arrangements. Yet we had a drone in place at the airport waiting his arrival. How did we know? Did we have agent secreted in his travel office? Did the Israelites? Was he betrayed by an Iranian official?
Not to diss our hometeam spies, but a tip from an Israeli or Iranian seems most likely. If an Iranian... very interesting.
Or maybe it was the guy at the Avis counter.
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Post by sidheguitarmichael on Jan 8, 2020 2:18:13 GMT -5
^^^or we knew where he was, more or less, for years, and he never knew it. Somebody knows the answer, but it’s not me. Maybe it’ll get reported in "foreign affairs."
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Post by sidheguitarmichael on Jan 8, 2020 2:53:27 GMT -5
Folks, most of you are asleep, but I just heard from a buddy who IS a war planner, OCONUS. Highlights: Iran’s missiles didn’t perform so well; zero casualties; and the only thing keeping us from destroying Iran’s capability to play with anything more than matches and sharp objects is, and I quote: "our leaders’ desire for peace." I trust his assessment—doesn’t mean you all should, but as of right now, there is a good chance that things will be pretty much the way they’ve been my whole adult life, at least in the short term. Let’s see what the morning brings.
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Post by millring on Jan 8, 2020 6:53:04 GMT -5
Within the realm of the possible... the Iranians intended to miss, fired at empty buildings. Firing the rockets satisfied honor without provoking an either untimely or unwanted escalation (and they can always claim, for domestic release, that there were massive casualties covered up by the lying dog Americans). Rhetoric seems to be cooling. Or they are just bad shots and all hell is still waiting to breakout. Time will tell. I would still like to negotiate with Iran. I would trade them Saudi Arabia for an acceptance of Israel. Perhaps a homeland for the Palestinians could be located on one the Saudi oil fields. Last night after it turned out that the damage inflicted wasn't matching up with the American news reporter's hair-on-fire, breathless presentation of the retaliatory bombing, I turned to Dar and said, "If this was during any other president's term, we'd all be wondering if the killing of Sulemani AND an allowed toothless retaliation by which to save face had all been pre-negotiated. The diplomats would have gotten their heads together and said, "You do understand that we are going to have to rid the world of this loathsome Sulemani, right?", and the Iranians would have sorta bowed their heads knowingly. Then the American diplomat would have said, "Tell you what, we kill Sulemani, you guys can appear all angry and shit, and then we'll give you a coupla places to harmlessly bomb in retaliation." And the Iranians would say "Didn't you guys just spend millions of dollars fixing up that air base that you're going to let us bomb?"...and the American would say, "Yeah, but it was still less than we delivered to you guys in pallets of cash so you could start working on your nuclear arsenal. Maybe you can carry on with that one if we end up electing a Democrat again later this year."
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Post by Deleted on Jan 8, 2020 6:58:39 GMT -5
Got to agree with Epaul. This day has been coming for years. How much was the US going to take from Iran? Maybe we should define some parameters here. Are we all in agreement that the US and Iran have been at war—on a sliding scale from warm to hot to cold to warm to hot again, etc., for just over 40 years? If there’s disagreement on that, I think it’s worth exploring. We are talking about a country that we have not had a formal diplomatic relationship with since Nov 1979, and who’s government actively celebrates that fact by burning an American flag each year in anniversary. Remember that our guys were shooting their guys in the late 80s. During the 40-year time frame—and I’m veering into opinion here because I might be missing something—the initial aggression that precedes each temperature flare up has been coming from the Iranian side, every time. I’m open to having my mind changed on that, if anyone wants to take a stab at it. As an aside, there is some evidence that the US learned lessons with Al Qaeda, going back to their (the org that became AQ) advising warlords and militias in Somalia in the early 90s on usage of RPGs against helicopters. Clinton’s reluctance to escalate the situation, and decision to pull troops, as well as his later decisions not to act on multiple "kill list" opportunities to take out OBL (Bin Laden) both emboldened OBL, and left him free to orchestrate 9/11. There are absolutely theoretical parallels between Somalia/OBL, and Iran/QS to be made, but they remain theoretical until we see how taking the option behind door #2 this time around actually pans out. But I digress. Are we in agreement about the USA’s relationship with Iran? Ukrainian airliner goes down in flames after takeoff from Tehran. WTF? Depends. Built by Boeing? (Too soon?) Please keep in mind the several hundred thousand Iranians killed by the Iraqis during the Iran/Iraq war. We and a lot of the West provided a lot of materiel support to the Iraqis. (Surreal is running across American made stuff with Iraqi markings on it during Desert Storm). Also recall that a good number of those dead were killed by chemical weapons. German companies were key in standing up Iraq's chemical weapons capability. Whoops. We might not remember this, but the Iranians sure do. Please keep in mind the southern Iraqi Shia killed after they revolted at the end of Desert Storm. Recall that George Bush encouraged them to do so, and then stood by while they were slaughtered. (Note: Iran is a predominantly Shia country and have been culturally tied to the Iraq Shia for centuries.) Please keep in mind that we pretty well destabilized their neighborhood in 2003, stirring up the Kurds and opening the door for ISIS (a Sunni group. Sunnis and Shia don't really get along all that good.) If someone invaded Canada, we possibly might feel an interest to get involved. There is a lot more to this story that includes us, Israel, the French, Lebanon, the PLO, Syria, the Druze, the Maronites, a fella named Ismail I, and a partridge in a pear tree. Phew! The point is, where you stand is where you sit. For every Mrs. Smith in the United State who lost a son to an Iranian proxy, there is a Mrs. Jamshidi in Iran who lost a son some American proxy. Nothing over there is as simple as a good guy/bad guy dynamic.
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Post by Marshall on Jan 8, 2020 9:26:45 GMT -5
Not to diss our hometeam spies, Don't worry. Our president throws them under the bus regularly. Then slams the bus in reverse and rolls over them again.
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Post by aquaduct on Jan 8, 2020 9:53:12 GMT -5
Want a real eye-opener: Record some blathering head cable news shows, but don't watch them until 90 days later. After three months, and after you've watched them, ask yourself if any of those people are anything other than idiots. Well, 5 down, 85 to go. Still idiots.
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Post by millring on Jan 8, 2020 11:47:40 GMT -5
That was a hopeful speech.
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Post by casualplayerpaul on Jan 8, 2020 11:53:31 GMT -5
The American people “should be extremely happy and grateful” that the crisis he created didn’t turn out as badly as it could have.
So far.
Great job!
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Post by RickW on Jan 8, 2020 12:29:10 GMT -5
Got to agree with Epaul. This day has been coming for years. How much was the US going to take from Iran? Maybe we should define some parameters here. Are we all in agreement that the US and Iran have been at war—on a sliding scale from warm to hot to cold to warm to hot again, etc., for just over 40 years? If there’s disagreement on that, I think it’s worth exploring. We are talking about a country that we have not had a formal diplomatic relationship with since Nov 1979, and who’s government actively celebrates that fact by burning an American flag each year in anniversary. Remember that our guys were shooting their guys in the late 80s. During the 40-year time frame—and I’m veering into opinion here because I might be missing something—the initial aggression that precedes each temperature flare up has been coming from the Iranian side, every time. I’m open to having my mind changed on that, if anyone wants to take a stab at it. As an aside, there is some evidence that the US learned lessons with Al Qaeda, going back to their (the org that became AQ) advising warlords and militias in Somalia in the early 90s on usage of RPGs against helicopters. Clinton’s reluctance to escalate the situation, and decision to pull troops, as well as his later decisions not to act on multiple "kill list" opportunities to take out OBL (Bin Laden) both emboldened OBL, and left him free to orchestrate 9/11. There are absolutely theoretical parallels between Somalia/OBL, and Iran/QS to be made, but they remain theoretical until we see how taking the option behind door #2 this time around actually pans out. But I digress. Are we in agreement about the USA’s relationship with Iran? Ukrainian airliner goes down in flames after takeoff from Tehran. WTF? Depends. Built by Boeing? (Too soon?) I’d have to agree with you, but Paul S said, you have to take the wider context. The conflict between the Shia and Sunni started well over a thousand years ago. There is nothing in comparison in the Christian world, at least not anymore. When the schism first occurred, yes, it was terrible, but Christians in the west have gotten over it. Muslims have not. So essentially Iran, as the biggest Shia nation, is surrounded by enemies. And as Paul said, we’ve been helping those enemies out .
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Post by epaul on Jan 8, 2020 12:36:07 GMT -5
Getting out of this damn thread is about like trying to get out of the Middle East.
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Post by epaul on Jan 8, 2020 12:46:19 GMT -5
(that said, I can appreciate and credit Iran's point of view more readily than Saudi Arabia's in this ongoing mess. Sunnies are the damn evangelists of the Islamic bunch, and the Saudis' Wahabifucks are the worst of the worst.
Our allies in the Middle East have some serious issues we have to continually overlook in order keep the deal going.
ARGHHH...)
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Post by fauxmaha on Jan 8, 2020 13:05:51 GMT -5
(that said, I can appreciate and credit Iran's point of view more readily than Saudi Arabia's in this ongoing mess. Sunnies are the damn evangelists of the Islamic bunch, and the Saudis' Wahabifucks are the worst of the worst. Our allies in the Middle East have some serious issues we have to continually overlook in order keep the deal going. ARGHHH...) What we need is a good and proper Crusade, right now. The Christian world has, by and large, figured out how to get along. Hell, most Friday nights, you can go to any number of high school gyms and see the team from the Catholic town playing the team from the Lutheran town, and bloodshed rarely takes place. Lets just convert those guys.
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Post by millring on Jan 8, 2020 13:15:24 GMT -5
American press is praising Iran for their measured response.
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Post by aquaduct on Jan 8, 2020 13:17:20 GMT -5
(that said, I can appreciate and credit Iran's point of view more readily than Saudi Arabia's in this ongoing mess. Sunnies are the damn evangelists of the Islamic bunch, and the Saudis' Wahabifucks are the worst of the worst. Our allies in the Middle East have some serious issues we have to continually overlook in order keep the deal going. ARGHHH...) What we need is a good and proper Crusade, right now. The Christian world has, by and large, figured out how to get along. Hell, most Friday nights, you can go to any number of high school gyms and see the team from the Catholic town playing the team from the Lutheran town, and bloodshed rarely takes place. Lets just convert those guys. Which ones, the Catholics or the Lutherans?
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Post by epaul on Jan 8, 2020 13:30:37 GMT -5
American press is praising Iran for their measured response. Where do you get this stuff, John? I went through a dozen stories and saw nothing supporting your statement or inference. Some guy somewhere saying in an interview "I thought Iran deserves credit for making a measured response" does not translate into "The American press is praising Iran for their measured response". Nor is it any kid of leg to base an inference on. A man sees what he wants to see and disregards the rest. All the girls in this bar love me! Do you want to dance? NO! Do you want to dance? NO! Do you want to dance? NO! Do you want to dance? NO! Do you want to dance? Maybe. But just one. Then you have to buy me a drink and leave. Do you want to dance? NO! Do you want to dance? NO!
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Post by Cornflake on Jan 8, 2020 13:33:18 GMT -5
"Maybe we should define some parameters here. Are we all in agreement that the US and Iran have been at war—on a sliding scale from warm to hot to cold to warm to hot again, etc., for just over 40 years? If there’s disagreement on that, I think it’s worth exploring."
We're not entirely in agreement. Equating war with "cold war" is debatable. By that standard, we've been at war with Russia since 1917, with a brief hiatus for WWII. We haven't been in a state of war with Iran, no. We've been hostile. I don't think I'm quibbling because there's international law about war and, as much as it seems to be ignored these days, there has long been a consensus among Christians and Jews as to what constitutes a just war. (Not that they all have been but we should at least aspire to it.) I opposed the war in Iraq because the fact that a bad guy may do something bad to you doesn't satisfy the traditional requirements for just war. An imminent threat of attack may, if it's real, which is why I've been waiting to hear more about what the threat was in this instance and how imminent it was.
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Post by fauxmaha on Jan 8, 2020 13:35:48 GMT -5
This one is from the "So delicious I want to shoot it straight into my veins" file: You can read the whole thing here. Here's the break down: The takeaway there is it's time to take a hard look at the 19th Amendment.
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