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Post by millring on Jan 4, 2020 11:14:23 GMT -5
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Post by TKennedy on Jan 4, 2020 12:19:21 GMT -5
Quote from Robert Baer who wrote the book on Iran I linked to earlier in this thread - - "The Devil We Know Dealing With The New Iranian Superpower" (Worth reading, especially now)
Former CIA intelligence officer Bob Baer said the killing of Soleimani was a major "mistake" on the part of the US, adding that Tehran's reaction could escalate US-Iran tensions very quickly.
"The CIA has no real intelligence operations inside Iran and no one in the Trump administration understands the Iranian mentality", Baer said.
He added that the killing has put US troops and US citizens in Iraq and in the region at great risk, especially since the US has no combat troops in Iraq and the Iraqi army is too weak to defend the US embassy or other US interests in Iraq.
"Because of this, no one can predict how the blowback to this operation will unfold," Baer told Al Jazeera.
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Post by sidheguitarmichael on Jan 4, 2020 13:23:05 GMT -5
The above leads me to suspect the source, because I am aware of the 82nd IRF already deployed in response to the embassy situation, and I’m just a guitarist. As to the Trump admin not understanding "the Iranian mentality," I’’m sure that is true. That said, plenty of people who do understand Iran were involved in drawing up the plans. Again, this is Trump’s option, but it is most assuredly not Trump’s plan. He gets to chose from a menu of options prepared by grown ups. Anyhoo, here’s a bit of CNN on the process: www.cnn.com/2020/01/03/politics/donald-trump-qasem-soleimani-tick-tock-timeline/index.html
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Post by sidheguitarmichael on Jan 4, 2020 14:07:09 GMT -5
Here’s one more article that came across my desk yesterday, in case anyone still cares why these two were targeted, and why now. www.reuters.com/article/us-...ani-to-attack-us-forces-in-iraq-idUSKBN1Z301Z(As an aside, QS isn’t so easy to replace as to be just one more "hydra head," like a suicide bomber, or US inner-city drug dealer; the dude was a major asset—sort of like a 3rd-world cross between a CIA analyst, a SOFD-D soldier, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and Charles Manson...)
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Post by Cornflake on Jan 4, 2020 14:14:20 GMT -5
That link is helpful, Michael. It appears that there may have been some justification for the assassination. Whether it was wise or will be effective are different questions. Your parenthetical is contrary to other assessments I've heard.
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Post by coachdoc on Jan 4, 2020 14:21:47 GMT -5
Was this guy as bad as...you fill in the blank. It is page 7 after all.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 4, 2020 18:09:48 GMT -5
I've heard several variations today on the argument that Suleimani needed killing. Certainly he was no friend of the US. I haven't heard anyone express sorrow over his demise. But if that's enough reason, why don't we send drones after Putin? Kim il Jong? Putin screwed with our elections, after all, which is a lot worse than anything Suleimani is reported to have done. The world would be better off without Putin. It seems to me that no one thinks assassinating Putin would be a good idea but a lot of people think that assassinating Suleimani was a bang-up idea. Why do we see these things differently? Is it because we can probably get away with beating up on a small-time power but we might actually get hurt doing the same thing to someone more nearly our size? Is that a moral foreign policy? Tired of hitting the question mark key. I'm still waiting to see whether the facts justified this act because of imminent potential harm to Americans, but the "he needed killing" rationale doesn't fly IMO. Suleimani wore a uniform and engaged in military operations against us. Whatever this was, and regardless whether it was smart or not, which is open to debate, it wasn't an assassination.
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Post by sidheguitarmichael on Jan 4, 2020 18:32:17 GMT -5
Suleimani wore a uniform and engaged in military operations against us. Whatever this was, and regardless whether it was smart or not, which is open to debate, it wasn't an assassination. Moreover, he wasn’t even in his own country, so it’s not an attack on Iranian sovereignty, so far as understand it. Paul, I was hoping that you might weigh in. While I am sure that there are things the uniform prevents you from saying, I’d be curious as to your views on just the logistics of the follow up to these strikes, and the staging of our forces. May I assume that you have spent time inside EMB Baghdad?
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Post by sidheguitarmichael on Jan 4, 2020 18:55:20 GMT -5
Y’know, so long as we are talking bout the Middle East, a little humour (note British spelling) couldn’t hurt:
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Post by Chesapeake on Jan 4, 2020 19:03:24 GMT -5
Paul - thanks for clarifying that distinction re assassination. Makes sense, but I was never clear on that.
Guess this will give the guy who replaced him some second thoughts.
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Post by Cornflake on Jan 4, 2020 19:16:23 GMT -5
Paul, I wasn't clear on that either. I stand corrected.
I haven't come to rest on all this. I'm very concerned because I don't see a happy ending. They'll retaliate. Americans will probably be killed. What then? Retaliation for the retaliation? War?
I sincerely hope my concerns prove to be overblown. Maybe the Iranians will keep the retaliation mild enough for us to ignore.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 4, 2020 19:20:35 GMT -5
Suleimani wore a uniform and engaged in military operations against us. Whatever this was, and regardless whether it was smart or not, which is open to debate, it wasn't an assassination. Moreover, he wasn’t even in his own country, so it’s not an attack on Iranian sovereignty, so far as understand it. Paul, I was hoping that you might weigh in. While I am sure that there are things the uniform prevents you from saying, I’d be curious as to your views on just the logistics of the follow up to these strikes, and the staging of our forces. May I assume that you have spent time inside EMB Baghdad? I avoided Baghdad like the plague, Michael. I was in southern Iraq in Desert Storm. I think we got about 50 miles or so from Basra. In '03-'04, I was on the outskirts of Samarra and then in Mosul. My heart aches for the people of Mosul and what they suffered in the past few years. As for follow-up strikes and such, anything I know is "open source." We deployed part of the Global Response Force (GRF), in the shape of Marines and elements of the 82nd Airborne Division to the embassy and to the airport over the past several days. I just read that we have identified 52 targets in Iran we would strike if the Iranians retaliate. I guess we should start fueling up the cruise missiles because I can't imagine the Iranians would let this one pass without a response. That said, there are many, many Shia militia within Iraq, and Iran is only about 80 air miles from Baghdad. We have a reaction force in Kuwait, and that's about a 650 KM ride. I hope the fellas in the Pentagon are doing some serious course of action development right now. PS, I am no longer in uniform, my friend. I was medically retired in November, 2016. I'm just a broke ex-soldier now, although I still work for the Empire.
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Post by jdd2 on Jan 4, 2020 19:21:16 GMT -5
Well, maybe soothe things over a little by saying you've targeted 52 sites--because of the hostages 50 years ago. Sometimes endless conflict needs to be refreshed.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 4, 2020 19:22:20 GMT -5
Well my heart aches for all of Iraq right now. We fucked up life for generations of Iraqis but good beginning in 2003.
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Post by sidheguitarmichael on Jan 4, 2020 20:10:47 GMT -5
Thanks for your input, Paul. I value your opinion on this a lot.
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Post by Chesapeake on Jan 4, 2020 22:23:57 GMT -5
Paul, I wasn't clear on that either. I stand corrected. I haven't come to rest on all this. I'm very concerned because I don't see a happy ending. They'll retaliate. Americans will probably be killed. What then? Retaliation for the retaliation? War? I sincerely hope my concerns prove to be overblown. Maybe the Iranians will keep the retaliation mild enough for us to ignore. I share these sentiments. It will be a miracle if we're not in a full-scale war-by-proxy within a very short time. The only thing that could prevent this from happening would be if the Iranians exercise restraint. In which case I don't doubt he'll be emboldened, and looking for the next place to flex U.S. muscles in our behalf. Trump has discovered a new toy,and if past is prologue, he'll keep using it. Remember when he discovered sanctions? So many possible scenarios. None of the most probable seem good.
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Post by RickW on Jan 4, 2020 22:44:00 GMT -5
The thing is, the Iranians have been pushing the envelope for quite some time. The tanker attacks in the gulf. The Yemeni war. The attack on the Saudis. The support of Assad. The support for Hezbollah. The attacks in Iraq on American personnel and bases. They just kept prodding to see if the US would do anything.
Saddam Hussein was keeping them in check. That’s a sad truth. They are surrounded by people who hate them. So, they are trying to be bigger than they are. They don’t have enough rich friends or enough fire power to take on anyone, really. So if they really piss off the US, they’re the ones that are going to suffer worse. Can they make life terrible for a lot of other people? Absolutely They have groups all through the middle east to do their bidding, and probably have good reach in Europe, and possible some in the US. But in the end, they are not going to “win” a war. I don’t think they can really even shut down the gulf for any length of time, because that’s not guerrilla warfare, which was successful in Afghanistan. That’s serious weaponry, and the US can and will, along with the Brits and French and anyone else they piss off, reduce that entire shoreline and all the bases, boats and planes to smoking rubble.
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Post by david on Jan 4, 2020 22:44:18 GMT -5
So Iraq's acting, but unpopular, prime minister is attending the Iranian general's funeral. Did anyone from the Iraqi government approve the airstrike? Are the Iraqis just US pawns? Is any of this being done to further Iraqi interests? What the hell are we doing there?
I thought trumpet had this all figured out before he won the election and was going to withdraw all US troops as soon as he got in office.
Maybe Russia will loan some of its new "game changing" hypersonic missles to Iran and we can be off to the races again.
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Post by fauxmaha on Jan 4, 2020 23:04:20 GMT -5
Iran just hacked the Federal Depository Library Program website.
Shit's getting real.
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Post by jdd2 on Jan 4, 2020 23:10:12 GMT -5
Meanwhile in pyeongyang, high fives for having added a dozen or so warheads over the last couple years, while at the same time perfecting their rockets.
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