Well, So much for herd immunity

[RickW]

The governor of Mississipi, a Republican, laying out the numbers:

1) "Let's talk about herd immunity. I've listened to some people argue that the rapid spread of cases is a good thing, and we need to reach herd immunity in Mississippi and elsewhere to survive. I'm not a health care expert by any means, but I am a math guy. And I have thoughts:"
2) "The experts say we need 70-80% of the population to get COVID-19 to achieve herd immunity. Let's assume they're wrong (it's certainly possible, they have been before.) Let's assume they're being way overly cautious and we actually only need 40% infection for herd immunity."
3) "In Mississippi, our population is 3 million. We've had 36,680 cases so far. We'd need 1.2 MILLION infections to achieve that hypothetical 40% threshold. (Remember, experts say it's double that.)"
4) "Over the last two weeks, our hospital system has started to become stressed to the point of pain. We are seeing the early signs and effects of it becoming overwhelmed. We had to suspend elective surgeries again."
5) "On our worst day of new cases, we had just over 1,000. It has typically been between 700-900 during this most aggressive time. To get to 40% infections, we'd need 3,187 new cases every day for a full year from today. We would need to TRIPLE our worst day -- every day -- for a year."
6) "I'm not one of these guys that immediately dismisses any idea that challenges the expert status quo talking points. I'm pretty skeptical by nature. That's healthy. But herd immunity is not anything like a realistic solution in the short or mid-term. I wish it was."
7) "Unless you're willing to go without hospitals after a car wreck or heart attack, we need a different approach. Right now, despite mixed messages at the beginning, it seems like masks are the best bet. They're a hell of a lot better than widespread shut downs. Please wear one!"

[Shannon]

Not to mention some recent data that suggests immunity may only last 4-8 weeks in most cases, much like a common cold (which is also a coronavirus). This needs more data for confirmation, of course, but is a bit worrisome.

[billhammond]

Mask up at Wally World:

www.startribune.com/walmart-to-require-customers-to-wear-masks-at-all-its-stores/571776592/

[Cornflake]

It took a while but we seem to be coming to a national consensus about some aspects of this mess. That's good.

[TKennedy]

Except for Trump's old doc Ronnie Jackson. He claims he does not wear a mask much.

www.politico.com/news/2020/07/15/former-trump-physician-ronny-jackson-masks-363549

That said how do you really enforce a mandate? Our city council is struggling with that topic as cases go up in our area.

Wall Mart just took the plunge, we should have some data on cases of the virus vs. deaths and injuries from attempted mask enforcement in their customers soon. At least some good pictures of creative rigs.

[Russell Letson]

I would point out that the herd immunity math was right there from pretty much the beginning--you could do as the governor did and plug in different percentages, but the outcome was always going to look pretty dire.

[TKennedy]

Now that the case data is not going to the CDC anymore but to the White House I am optimistic that we are going to see a big drop in new cases. That is good news.

[aquaduct]

Jul 15, 2020 13:08:20 GMT -5 TKennedy said:

That said how do you really enforce a mandate? Our city council is struggling with that topic as cases go up in our area.

That's a good question. Genuine fear is usually the motivator. And fear unfortunately, is very local. A grizzly bear in your back yard is terrifying. In your neighbor's backyard 3 streets over is kind of a curiosity. 2 states over isn't even news.

So for fear to actually materialize, there needs to be a sense that it's very close to affecting you in some concrete fashion.

My mother-in-law (RIP) used to call to tell us that she just heard on the radio that 30 million people died in car crashes last month. Now think seriously about that. If it were true there'd be piles of bodies under the flaming wreckage of vehicles about every 20 feet in any direction. If that were the case everybody would be terrified into immobilization. MIL was delightfully innumerate.

But it isn't. The truth is somewhat less than 30,000 die. Annually. That's about 600 people per state. Every year. The odds are you've actually known very few of them in your life. It's not scary (no matter how much money NHTSA spends on advertising) because it just isn't local enough.

COVID is also not scary mostly for the same reason. It just isn't local enough. I personally know of only one person who's caught it and she's a production worker on third shift at my plant that I couldn't pick out from a police line up. And I know even fewer that have died from it.

That's the problem with enforcement. The terror mongers walked right past the "just 2 weeks to flatten the curve" mandate (which most folks at least grudgingly thought was reasonable) into a 4 month and counting lock down complete with rioting and murder. They brazenly lied for everyone to see. And now those chickens (literally) have come home to roost.

How do you enforce it? Hell if I know. There ain't enough armed guards willing to shoot their own family and neighbors to be able to make it happen. And that's what you're going to need at this point.

Good luck. Glad it's not me.

[aquaduct]

Jul 15, 2020 12:58:14 GMT -5 billhammond said:

Mask up at Wally World:

www.startribune.com/walmart-to-require-customers-to-wear-masks-at-all-its-stores/571776592/

Pants Up at Wally World

[james]

Not wearing a mask in English shops could incur a £50 fine from July 24th.

I looked on Amazon at surgical mask prices. They have just quadrupled. I'll put my stash in the safe. (I haven't got a safe).

[robjh22]

Go to a shop and buy a safe. Wear a mask to be safe with your safe.