What should the US do about Ukraine?

[Cornflake]

I've been trying to avoid partisan subjects here. Maybe I'm naive in thinking that Ukraine doesn't present one. I'm torn about this one and I'd like to hear other views.

On one hand, I detest Putin. I don't like to see big countries bullying small ones. He seems to have decided that the west doesn't care enough about Ukraine to go to war over it and that he can take it without outside military opposition. (I can't help hearing echoes of Hitler in the 1930s.) If he gets away with it in Ukraine, he may proceed to gobble up other countries.

On the other hand, Putin's right. The US, at least, doesn't have any vital stake in Ukraine. Are we going to send US troops into battle against Russian troops just because Putin's plans are galling? There are lots of bad guys in the world. We shouldn't go to war every time one of them does something despicable.

My very tentative assessment is that we should give Ukraine all the assistance we can short of intervening militarily. Maybe we should bluff about military action but Putin would probably recognize it as a bluff.

I'm asking what the US should do but I'd also be interested in what the Brits and Canadians here think.

[Hobson]

I don't know.

[howard lee]

Mission to Moscow

Congressperson Lauren Boebert

Congressperson Marjorie Taylor Greene

[epaul]

When the Soviet Union fell, NATO should have been re-jiggered into something other than what it was originally founded to be, a military alliance directed against the Soviet Union. Instead, NATO was expanded. Expanded towards Russia's borders. Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic. What the hell were Russians supposed to think? NATO was clearly on an "everybody but Russia" military alliance track headed smack dab towards Russia's border. To the Russian mind, to what purpose this NATO?

You get the Putins you deserve.

And now with the Putin we got, NATO was trying to get the Ukraine signed up into the "everybody but Russia" military alliance situated on Russia's border? (would we stand for such?)

Putin is likely every bad thing you can say he is, but he is acting rationally. NATO should not have been expanded during a period of Russian weakness. NATO probably should have been disbanded. Its purpose had been served. What business did NATO have as a military alliance post-Soviet Union? To Russian eyes? What purpose did NATO still have when the Soviet Union fell? Nothing good for Russia. Not to Russian eyes.

[epaul]

So, what can the U.S. do now?

Nothing.

War? Good luck with that.

Sanctions? Hello China/Russia economic alliance. Sure don't want to go down that road.

[Russell Letson]

Dealing with a bully is never easy, in part because the bully may well be willing to go into full psychopath mode to get his way. This problem scales up from one-on-one confrontations to international face-offs. My father's solution to bullying would be the old punch-in-the-snoot disincentive--but Dad never had to face down a guy who might be willing to come back with a ballbat or a knife or wait for him out in the parking lot with a gun.

One question with Putin is how rational he is, or to be precise, what he considers rational--how willing he is to inflict disproportionate damage to get what he wants. After all, he might well feel that going to war doesn't cost him anything--he's not on on the line, his military is, and if a bunch of Russian grunts get killed it's no biggie. Cost of doing business. That assumes that he and his cronies feel insulated from the consequences of their policies--that any costs will be, as they say in business, externalized.

This problem is not unique to Putin--look at Erdogan, whose authoritarian behavior seems to be rooted in a personality disorder. Or at Bolsonaro in Brazil or Lukashenko in Belarus. Yet they all must have the support of non-irrational factions and powers in their nations' power structures. When the big monkey is willing to do anything to get his way--and can call on a crew of enablers and enforcers--it's hard for non-crazies to mount a response that isn't as destructive as the problem.

(I keep thinking of the old National Lampoon cover--"If You Don't Buy This Magazine, We'll Kill This Dog.")

[epaul]

Whatever else he is, Putin is smart. He wants (a guess) to clip NATO's wings. Reasonable. And he wants to stabilize a Crimean corridor, but not try gobble or manage the entirety of the Ukraine (another guess). There are historic and ethic complications to the Russian/Ukrainian interface that are, well, complicated and not something we are privy to (or even interested in).

[aquaduct]

I don't know. You folks put Biden in office. I was hoping you'd thought it through better than that.

[james]

Still learning about stuff. Found this quite informative and interesting, if a little troubling, in its speculation... 

www.justsecurity.org/79952/as-putin-lines-ukraine-border-with-russian-troops-is-there-a-china-factor/

[Dub]

Given Ukraine’s history and political reality, I see no reason for the US to go to war with Russia over It. I very much doubt that the UN has any collective desire to act on Ukraine’s behalf.

From Wikipedia:

Ukraine (Ukrainian: Україна, romanized: Ukraïna, pronounced [ʊkrɐˈjinɐ] (audio speaker iconlisten)) is a country in Eastern Europe. It is the second-largest country by area in Europe after Russia, which it borders to the east and north-east. Ukraine also shares borders with Belarus to the north; Poland, Slovakia, and Hungary to the west; Romania and Moldova to the south; and has a coastline along the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea. It spans an area of 603,628 km2 (233,062 sq mi), with a population of 41.3 million,[c] and is the eighth-most populous country in Europe. The nation's capital and largest city is Kyiv.

The territory of modern Ukraine has been inhabited since 32,000 BC. During the Middle Ages, the area was a key centre of East Slavic culture, with the powerful state of Kievan Rus' forming the basis of Ukrainian identity. Following its fragmentation into several principalities in the 13th century and the devastation created by the Mongol invasion, the territorial unity collapsed and the area was contested, ruled, and divided by a variety of powers, including the Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth, Austria-Hungary, the Ottoman Empire, and Tsardom of Russia. A Cossack Hetmanate emerged and prospered during the 17th and 18th centuries, but its territory was eventually split between Poland and the Russian Empire. In the aftermath of the Russian Revolution, a Ukrainian national movement for self-determination emerged, and the internationally recognized Ukrainian People's Republic was declared on 23 June 1917. After World War II, the western part of Ukraine merged into the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic, and the whole country became a part of the Soviet Union. Ukraine gained its independence in 1991, following the dissolution of the Soviet Union.

Following its independence, Ukraine declared itself a neutral state;[11] it formed a limited military partnership with Russia and other CIS countries while also establishing a partnership with NATO in 1994. In 2013, after the government of President Viktor Yanukovych had decided to suspend the Ukraine–European Union Association Agreement and seek closer economic ties with Russia, a several-months-long wave of demonstrations and protests known as the Euromaidan began, which later escalated into the Revolution of Dignity that led to the overthrow of Yanukovych and the establishment of a new government. These events formed the background for the annexation of Crimea by Russia in March 2014 and the War in Donbas in April 2014. On 1 January 2016, Ukraine applied for the economic component of the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area with the European Union.[12]

Ukraine is a developing country ranking 74th in the Human Development Index. It is the poorest country in Europe, suffering from a very high poverty rate as well as severe corruption.[13][14] However, because of its extensive fertile farmlands, Ukraine is one of the largest grain exporters in the world.[15][16] It also maintains the third-largest military in Europe after Russia and France.[17] Ukraine is a unitary republic under a semi-presidential system with separate powers: legislative, executive, and judicial branches. The country is a member of the United Nations, the Council of Europe, the OSCE, the GUAM organization, and the Lublin Triangle, and is one of the founding states of the CIS, even though it never became a member of the organization.

[majorminor]

I don't think there is much we CAN do is there?

[aquaduct]

Jan 24, 2022 14:19:48 GMT -5 majorminor said:

I don't think there is much we CAN do is there?

I can pretty much guarantee that fact won't stop DC from trying.

[Dub]

Quote from a piece by Jillian Kay Melchior in today’s WSJ.

Washington believes Russia will invade Ukraine. “My guess is he will move in,” President Biden said of Vladimir Putin last week. The view in Kyiv is different. Current and former senior officials, military and defense experts and businessmen say they don’t expect a full military invasion anytime soon. But other serious perils loom as Mr. Putin seeks to subjugate Ukraine.

I see the use of the word subjugate as the author’s attempt to paint Ukraine as a helpless victim of the cruel monster, Putin. From what I can understand about Ukraine, there is large proportion of its people who want close ties with Russia and even think of themselves as Russian. Ukraine is the poorest country in Europe. If the West undertakes their protection, I don’t see the West as helping any with their economic (or political) condition. Look at Haiti.

[t-bob]

Flake
(...)
"I've been trying to avoid partisan subjects here."

I enjoyed the thread..... I was reading. What's happening with Putin and Ukraine? It's the same Russian mob/thugs/assassins

I saw some of the thread especially the pictures and the music. I certainly couldn't figure out the women. I guess the entire pics/music was humor....... There are some hot women in Russia

Why don't we call Dr Strangelove?

[epaul]

And, importantly, (I think) this question needs to be, has to be, re-phrased.

The question should not be, can not be, what should the U.S. do about Russia and Ukraine.

The question should be, needs to be, what should NATO do about Russia and Ukraine.

NATO may once have been but no longer can or should be a proxy for American military power enforcing American interests. NATO is an alliance. And this alliance should act mutually, with mutual accord and investment in money and lives (albeit fairly proportionally). This Ukraine mess is NATO's mess. Biden should make this clear (and stop talking). NATO needs to talk. And the NATO members need to act or not act in accordance with the treaty they have signed.

The rub is, the Ukraine is not a NATO member. There is no treaty obligation between NATO and the Ukraine. If NATO members judge Russian/Ukrainian affairs to be something that affects their security, then NATO should act. As NATO vs Russia. Not the U.S. vs Russia. And NATO decisions are not to be made in American press conferences by American politicians but in NATO conferences.

Bottom line, NATO or no, this is not an American Cowboy moment. This is a European issue. America has largely cast its lot with Europe, but Europe needs to cast its lot in with itself. We can help, but this business needs European leadership and commitment.

[james]

An analysis that popped up on my Twitter.

[Cornflake]

"I don't think there is much we CAN do is there?"

Sure there is. Remember Iraq? There just aren't many good things we could do.

[majorminor]

Jan 24, 2022 17:06:18 GMT -5 Cornflake said:

"I don't think there is much we CAN do is there?"

Sure there is. Remember Iraq? There just aren't many good things we could do.

Oh...I just assumed that was off the table since that would be complete lunacy. F'n with Saddam is one thing......About all we can and are gonna do is squawk and Putin is going to do what he damn well pleases over there IMO

[Marshall]

Nuke 'em !

[jdd2]

Jan 24, 2022 13:03:20 GMT -5 epaul said:

When the Soviet Union fell, NATO should have been re-jiggered into something other than what it was originally founded to be, a military alliance directed against the Soviet Union. ...

Isn't that rejiggering how the US came up with coalitions in afghanistan and iraq?