|
Post by Cornflake on Sept 21, 2022 17:55:50 GMT -5
This extract from an article by NBC News was interesting:
Throughout Putin’s tenure, the Kremlin has fostered a reputation for testing the limits of an arrangement in which Russian citizens largely agree to stay out of politics if the state stays out of their lives. But it has always demonstrated a sense of restraint, a hesitation to take things too far and risk sparking a broad-scale backlash.
With his military in retreat and Ukraine advancing, analysts said Putin appears to have made the largest political gamble of his career.
“The social contract has been violated,” said Andrei Kolesnikov, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
“In the medium term, this is a problem for the public’s trust in Putin and his regime. In the short term, they are not going to get serious protests but rather sabotage,” he said, referring to the potential for people who are drafted to undermine the war effort.
|
|
|
Post by RickW on Sept 21, 2022 19:30:45 GMT -5
There are already reports of Russians rushing to get out of the country. Grandpa Radtke was a Russian army draftee/deserter. Don’t say that too loudly. You might wake up to find yourself being prepped to march to Luhansk.
|
|
|
Post by RickW on Sept 21, 2022 19:31:54 GMT -5
Could be the initial "positional woofing" for negotiations. Difficult to believe that Russian reservists and draftees are anywhere near ready for battle or that they will be for some time. Not an easy thing to do quickly in an organized country, and really not an easy thing to do in a disorganized riddled with corruption country (I bet the reservists' necessary supplies will be nowhere to be found). It was probably necessary to replenish the Russian armed forces regardless of any new plans on the Ukraine front. They have a lot of ground to cover besides just Ukraine (eastern front, southern front, western front, a lot border to cover). Putin may just be trying to get extra mileage out of (or justification for) a move that was necessary and had to take place anyway. Interesting and positive that Putin mentioned the westerly winds. Shows an awareness that even limited use of tactical nukes will have a good chance of blowing back on Russia. I’ve been reminded lately of the scene that starts Enemy at the Gates, where every second Russian is given a gun, and the rest are told to follow behind and pick up the rifle of the guy killed in front of them.
|
|
|
Post by jdd2 on Sept 21, 2022 21:47:25 GMT -5
...where every second Russian is given a gun, and the rest are told to follow behind and pick up the rifle of the guy killed in front of them. "This is my rifle, this is my gun..."
|
|
|
Post by Marshall on Sept 22, 2022 8:10:01 GMT -5
I’ve been reminded lately of the scene that starts Enemy at the Gates, where every second Russian is given a gun, and the rest are told to follow behind and pick up the rifle of the guy killed in front of them. That was truth in the Iran-Iraq war. There weren't enough rifles in Iran so that's what the Ayatollah (or his lackies) told troops.
|
|
|
Post by Marshall on Sept 22, 2022 8:14:56 GMT -5
Could be the initial "positional woofing" for negotiations. Negotiations won't happen. Putin has to have the Donbas & Crimea to save face. Zelensky won't accept any territorial concessions. Of course if we cut off his military support he'd have no other choice. But the US is having too much fun degrading the mighty Russian military to ease up soon.
|
|
|
Post by Cornflake on Sept 22, 2022 8:18:18 GMT -5
As for Putin's threat to use nukes, it's concerning. My wife and I were discussing it yesterday. Lots of countries have nukes now. We can't back off and let Putin have his way because of such a threat. That would tell every bad guy in the world that they can invade their neighbors with impunity as long as they threaten to use their nukes. I think that's clearly the right answer but it's not an entirely satisfying one.
|
|
|
Post by majorminor on Sept 22, 2022 13:54:36 GMT -5
www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/a-rights-group-says-russia-is-drafting-anti-war-protesters-to-fight-for-putin-in-ukraine-and-the-kremlin-isn-t-denying-it/ar-AA127YUi?cvid=0466fc250c1b45908ebde89d45f8a531A rights group says Russia is drafting anti-war protesters to fight for Putin in Ukraine, and the Kremlin isn't denying it Protesters arrested in Russia are being forced to report to military recruitment offices, a monitor said. The Russian-based rights group OVD-Info said at least 1,310 anti-war protesters have been detained. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov did not deny that some of those detained are being drafted. Russians who have been arrested for protesting their country's invasion of Ukraine as Putin mobilizes additional forces are being forced to report to military enlistment offices, a monitoring group said Thursday. At least 1,328 people, including more than 530 in Moscow alone, were detained Wednesday in mass protests across Russia, the Russian independent human rights project OVD-Info reported. At 15 police departments across the capital, protesters were handed summons demanding they report for military duty, the group said. At least 17 anti-war protesters in Voronezh, a city in southwest Russia, were also ordered to report to an enlistment office. At least one detainee was threatened with a 10-year prison term for refusing to accept the summons, the group said. Artem Krieger, a Moscow-based journalist with SOTA, one of the few remaining independent news outlets in Russia, said he had also witnessed detained protesters being handed summons after he was arrested covering protests on Wednesday. According to Krieger, some men received the summons despite having no military experience. The arrests came after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced Wednesday that at least 300,000 reservists would be called up to fight in Ukraine — the first such draft since World War II — and that currently enlisted soldiers would be prevented from leaving the army once their contracts end. The announcement came after a Ukrainian counter-offensive dealt heavy losses to Russian forces, recovering over 3,000 square miles of territory in the eastern part of the country, as well as some areas in the south, that had been occupied by the invading army. "That Putin would do this shows how badly he feels the need right now to change the momentum, which has been all in Ukraine's favor," Daniel Treisman, a Russia expert at the University of California, Los Angeles, told Insider. Dmitry Peskov, a spokesperson for the Kremlin, did not deny that some detained protesters were being drafted, Reuters reported. "This is not against the law," he said.
|
|
|
Post by Cornflake on Sept 23, 2022 12:11:01 GMT -5
I can't wait to see how today's elections turn out. Ha ha ha.
|
|
|
Post by Cornflake on Oct 4, 2022 11:19:51 GMT -5
It's fascinating. The Ukrainian offensive is turning into a near-rout. Putin's getting flak at home.
Early on, Terry posted a piece by Madeleine Albright that stuck in my memory. She observed that "Mr. Putin will, in my experience, never admit to making a mistake." He made one when he started this war.
|
|
|
Post by gbacklin on Oct 4, 2022 12:55:39 GMT -5
Well one thing is for certain, with the leaks in the pipeline, the subject of climate change is becoming interesting. CNBC
|
|
|
Post by TKennedy on Oct 4, 2022 15:51:18 GMT -5
Meanwhile my Wyoming cousin continues to send me videos of Judge Napolitano interviewing his experts, Scott Ritter and a Col. McGregor who predict a Ukrainian rout over the long haul and side with Russia on many issues. Latest is the USA sabotaged the pipeline. Meanwhile the more mainstream news outlets like AP have guys like General Petraeus commenting.
Maybe Paul will chime in on the qualifications of those “experts”. We are at the mercy of the press for the information on which we build our opinions and decide who to believe. Col.McGregor and General Petraeus’ opinions are at opposite ends of the spectrum.
I am up to 2008 in my Putin book. My take is that as long as he is office he won’t back down although so far he is is profiled as poker faced, smart, and very pragmatic so maybe he’ll come up with a creative face saving plan. Hope so.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 4, 2022 16:43:57 GMT -5
Meanwhile my Wyoming cousin continues to send me videos of Judge Napolitano interviewing his experts, Scott Ritter and a Col. McGregor who predict a Ukrainian rout over the long haul and side with Russia on many issues. Latest is the USA sabotaged the pipeline. Meanwhile the more mainstream news outlets like AP have guys like General Petraeus commenting. Maybe Paul will chime in on the qualifications of those “experts”. We are at the mercy of the press for the information on which we build our opinions and decide who to believe. Col.McGregor and General Petraeus’ opinions are at opposite ends of the spectrum. I am up to 2008 in my Putin book. My take is that as long as he is office he won’t back down although so far he is is profiled as poker faced, smart, and very pragmatic so maybe he’ll come up with a creative face saving plan. Hope so. Terry, I’m not overly impressed with either McGregor or Patraeus. McGregor’s notion of reorganizing the army around brigade sized organizations ultimately happened. We’re reversing that now to a more division centric Army. Thank god we never fought a large scale conflict like what we see in the Ukraine. The holes we had in our ability to effectively coordinate large forces across an area as large as Ukraine never became evident in Iraq and Afghanistan. This is not a perfect analogy, but it would be sort of like Amazon powering down to individual distribution centers and removing a LOT of the coordinating and synchronizing horsepower at regional levels. Again, I’m not sure that’s apt. I do know we fairly gutted our logistics capability at the tactical level, both from a management and execution level. Thank goodness we had a ton of contracted help over the past 20 years. Note it’s hard to get contractors to drive trucks into areas under persistent fire. As for Patraeus, I just don’t like the guy professionally. He had 16 THOUSAND troops under his command in Northern Iraq in 2003 - 2004. My brigade took over with slightly over 6,000 troops and he couldn’t understand why we were not getting the same results. Either he’s arrogant as *%#@ or just stupid. 🤷♂️. His subsequent actions speak for themselves, but I admit I’m one of those people who still think character matters.
|
|
|
Post by TKennedy on Oct 4, 2022 17:23:39 GMT -5
Thanks Paul! Any idea who should we listen to amongst the retried military pundits? Or anyone else?
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 4, 2022 17:32:44 GMT -5
Thanks Paul! Any idea who should we listen to amongst the retried military pundits? Or anyone else? I don’t know, Terry. I listen to the BBC and try and draw my own conclusions. This war is one folks should carefully contextualize. The Russian conduct is not one folks should emulate, and they’ve minimized the effectiveness of what forces they did bring to bear through nepotism, incompetence, corruption and fear of The Boss. The Ukrainians aren’t the white knights we want them to be as a country, but they are vastly more palatable than Putin and his Fan Boys, some of whom endorse using nukes. I cannot for the life of me fathom why Putin has adherents, but that one person’s perspective. I don’t know how this will turn out. War has a crazy way of taking drastic turns. I remain sorrowful for both countries and their kids, and for everyone hurt by the knock on ramifications.
|
|
|
Post by james on Oct 4, 2022 17:51:38 GMT -5
I follow former US ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul on Twitter. He posts many thoughts and links that I find interesting and illuminating.
|
|
|
Post by gbacklin on Oct 4, 2022 17:54:02 GMT -5
…I remain sorrowful for both contrives and their kids, and for everyone hurt by the knock on ramifications. When I was in college, one of my classmates was a young lady who, when the subject of our childhood would come up, tell me what it was like growing up in Korea during the war. Her stories were something I could not even imagine.
|
|
|
Post by james on Oct 5, 2022 15:07:50 GMT -5
Another very interesting, speculative but we'll informed article from Timothy Snyder. The Chechnya/Kadyrov and the Wagner/Pragozhin parts were informative.
|
|
|
Post by Hobson on Oct 5, 2022 15:13:18 GMT -5
I haven't explored it yet, but yesterday somebody told me about this news site that claims to be unbiased. Anybody here who is familiar with it? www.newsnationnow.com/
|
|
|
Post by Marshall on Oct 5, 2022 17:11:23 GMT -5
Claiming to be something quite often means the opposite.
|
|