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Post by Cornflake on Sept 9, 2022 15:57:14 GMT -5
The Ukrainians are being smart and aggressive. The Russians are depleted and seemingly befuddled.
"Russian President Vladimir Putin's army has one or two days to launch counterattacks against Ukraine near the occupied city of Izium in the eastern Kharkiv region, or it could be forced to leave the area, according to a former Russian military leader.
"Igor Girkin, who also goes by Igor Strelkov, gave an update on the situation near Izium in a Telegram post on Friday, writing that Russia potentially not being able to restore land communication lines between Izium and the city of Kupyansk in that timeline may also play a part in whether or not it withdraws. Russian forces may even have to leave Izium itself depending on if and when it embarks on its own counteroffensive against Ukrainian advances, he added.
"'The question of the time of the counterattack is very acute: if the enemy manages to gain a foothold in the positions reached, pull up artillery and air defense, then it will be extremely difficult for our units to throw him back...if at all....'"
Newsweek.
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Post by epaul on Sept 10, 2022 11:09:04 GMT -5
This war is an eye opener. It was an easy guess that tanks would not be worth a damn against a modern army, but now it is starting to look like it is the same for fighter jets and bombers. I thought Russia's command of the air would be a tell, but it's now seems pretty apparent that Ukraine didn't need NATO jets to keep the skies clear, their (ours) anti-aircraft systems, fixed and mobile, have done a good job of neutralizing Russia's air force.
Where are the Bears? Big bombers are sitting ducks for modern missiles.
And fighter jets come up way short in the "bang for the buck" department (payload vs the expense of delivery). They need to expend too much time and energy in defending themselves and are just too ridiculously expensive to lose (and the same is true, ten times ten true, of aircraft carriers. They are now only good for beating on the backward).
Missiles and drones. And boots on the ground infantry (now known as highly mobile weapon delivery systems).
(position taken for amateur discussion purposes. The reduced role played in this conflict, so far, by the seemingly neutralized Russian air force, means something about something.)
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Post by Cornflake on Sept 10, 2022 11:46:24 GMT -5
Epaul, I hope that bright folks in the Pentagon are taking note of some of the things you mention.
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Post by gbacklin on Sept 10, 2022 11:51:34 GMT -5
Epaul, I hope that bright folks in the Pentagon are taking note of some of the things you mention. Unfortunately, I think all attention is on the midterms  |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 10, 2022 12:36:35 GMT -5
This war is an eye opener. It was an easy guess that tanks would not be worth a damn against a modern army, but now it is starting to look like it is the same for fighter jets and bombers. I thought Russia's command of the air would be a tell, but it's now seems pretty apparent that Ukraine didn't need NATO jets to keep the skies clear, their (ours) anti-aircraft systems, fixed and mobile, have done a good job of neutralizing Russia's air force. Where are the Bears? Big bombers are sitting ducks for modern missiles. And fighter jets come up way short in the "bang for the buck" department (payload vs the expense of delivery). They need to expend too much time and energy in defending themselves and are just too ridiculously expensive to lose (and the same is true, ten times ten true, of aircraft carriers. They are now only good for beating on the backward). Missiles and drones. And boots on the ground infantry (now known as highly mobile weapon delivery systems). (position taken for amateur discussion purposes. The reduced role played in this conflict, so far, by the seemingly neutralized Russian air force, means something about something.) I wouldn't draw conclusive lessons about any of that from this conflict yet. Let's not pretend how the Russians employed their Armed Forces was good but defeated anyway. It wasn't. Their employment was shambolic. Same weapons and different tactics and logistics would have shown different lessons. Time will tell. |
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Post by aquaduct on Sept 10, 2022 12:43:37 GMT -5
How many billions are they talking about with the current check they want to write now? $137 billion?
Yeah, this is going about like I expected.
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Post by Cornflake on Sept 10, 2022 12:56:51 GMT -5
Paul S, you know this subject and I don't. But it appears to me that defenses against tanks and aircraft have gotten very good. Is that not necessarily the case?
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Post by Marshall on Sept 10, 2022 13:24:33 GMT -5
It’s proving Russia is not really a Super Power.
I heard a good description of Russia (here?).
Russia is not really a country. It’s a gas station with an army. (And it seems that army isn’t all it was cracked up to be)
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Post by james on Sept 10, 2022 16:54:24 GMT -5
Rebecca Solnit opines,
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Post by TKennedy on Sept 10, 2022 17:05:17 GMT -5
I am halfway through my Putin biography by Phillip Short. He has just become president. My thoughts from what I have read about him so far are that he will never give up. He would have be removed from power.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 10, 2022 18:10:41 GMT -5
Paul S, you know this subject and I don't. But it appears to me that defenses against tanks and aircraft have gotten very good. Is that not necessarily the case? It is the case for sure. However, counters to those counters are getting good. The Russians seem to be trickle feeding their tanks and aircraft into the maw of Ukrainian defenses instead of trying to employ effective countermeasures. That's why I say we can't make hard conclusions. Consider the poor lessons we took from Desert Storm. We came out of that one thinking our military could solve everything. We fought a fourth rate opponent, who was using shitty Russian gear and employing poor Soviet tactics, on flat, open terrain, with no civilians in the way. Of COURSE we were going to win. That said, those conditions were unique. The conditions in Ukraine are unique. One would do well to not draw overly broad conclusions from unique circumstances. I did find out today that claiming the Russians are getting their asses handed to them is touch paper in some venues. Curious. What happens when we see Ukrainian military forces in Izyum? Is that fake? Whatever. |
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Post by james on Sept 10, 2022 21:13:52 GMT -5
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Post by aquaduct on Sept 10, 2022 22:37:40 GMT -5
Didn't Zelinsky outlaw all political opposition to him very early in this campaign? Kind of a funny way to spell both democracy and freedom. |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2022 5:40:08 GMT -5
Didn't Zelinsky outlaw all political opposition to him very early in this campaign? Kind of a funny way to spell both democracy and freedom. The Ukrainian parliament passed a bill that Zelensky signed in May 2022 banning pro-Russian political parties. The largest party banned was the Opposition Platform for Life Party. The guy who ran that party is Viktor Medvedchuk, who was Putin's main man in the Ukraine. He may have been the guy tapped by Russia to run the government had their invasion succeeded. Many of the other 10 parties banned were pro-Russian socialist parties. Even the UK banned the British Union of Fascists during World War II. |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2022 8:14:13 GMT -5
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Post by aquaduct on Sept 11, 2022 8:31:45 GMT -5
Didn't Zelinsky outlaw all political opposition to him very early in this campaign? Kind of a funny way to spell both democracy and freedom. The Ukrainian parliament passed a bill that Zelensky signed in May 2022 banning pro-Russian political parties. The largest party banned was the Opposition Platform for Life Party. The guy who ran that party is Viktor Medvedchuk, who was Putin's main man in the Ukraine. He may have been the guy tapped by Russia to run the government had their invasion succeeded. Many of the other 10 parties banned were pro-Russian socialist parties. Even the UK banned the British Union of Fascists during World War II. So does that leave any political opposition or does that just return the country to functionaries of the Biden Family Crime Syndicate? |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2022 8:48:25 GMT -5
The Ukrainian parliament passed a bill that Zelensky signed in May 2022 banning pro-Russian political parties. The largest party banned was the Opposition Platform for Life Party. The guy who ran that party is Viktor Medvedchuk, who was Putin's main man in the Ukraine. He may have been the guy tapped by Russia to run the government had their invasion succeeded. Many of the other 10 parties banned were pro-Russian socialist parties. Even the UK banned the British Union of Fascists during World War II. So does that leave any political opposition or does that just return the country to functionaries of the Biden Family Crime Syndicate? I guess better Biden Family Crime Syndicate supporters than supporters of Putin's Merry Rabble of Rapists and War Criminals? One must pick one's poison, I guess. |
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Post by aquaduct on Sept 11, 2022 9:02:27 GMT -5
So does that leave any political opposition or does that just return the country to functionaries of the Biden Family Crime Syndicate? I guess better Biden Family Crime Syndicate supporters than supporters of Putin's Merry Rabble of Rapists and War Criminals? One must pick one's poison, I guess. The case can be made (and has been) that we could have just stayed out of it instead of creating another Iraq. |
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Post by Cornflake on Sept 11, 2022 10:02:01 GMT -5
The offensive is still succeeding. Some military analyst said the Ukrainians will eventually run into their own supply-line problems and the front will become static for a while. May they be at the Russian border when it happens.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2022 11:18:33 GMT -5
I guess better Biden Family Crime Syndicate supporters than supporters of Putin's Merry Rabble of Rapists and War Criminals? One must pick one's poison, I guess. The case can be made (and has been) that we could have just stayed out of it instead of creating another Iraq. That's a very fair point. We could also make the case that The West squandered a golden opportunity to help Russia transition away from a communist country into a democratic one. Instead, we made spurious promises, gleefully danced on the grave of the Soviet Union, and didn't really lift a finger to help. Now we scratch our heads and wonder why Putin is Putin. We could make a similar argument about China. That country's collective memory goes back centuries. Ours goes back to about last Tuesday. Most of us are blissfully ignorant of how The West, and in particular the United Kingdom, treated the Qing dynasty. Xi is leveraging that to advance a "past is present" narrative in China. Is that a false narrative? Probably, as this article alludes to. foreignpolicy.com/2019/01/29/xis-china-is-steamrolling-its-own-history/ That said, it's a narrative that has legs in China and jut ignoring it isn't going to work. |
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