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Post by jdd2 on Nov 2, 2022 1:24:09 GMT -5
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Post by epaul on Nov 4, 2022 22:49:57 GMT -5
Unemployment is low, jobs and job growth is good, economic growth is growing. Why is the Fed trying to fuck it all up?
The current inflation is the result of a couple oddball external events; the global economic shutdown in reaction to the Corona Virus and that damn Putin's invasion of Ukraine which totally screwed up global energy deliveries. Yet the Fed is operating under old rules from an old textbook that was written in response to inflation events that were entirely different than this current one. The inflation pressures affecting this country are not the result of internal forces but rather external events- China's Covid shutdown and fucking Putin. Yet the Fed feels it has to attack this "not our fault" inflation by punishing our domestic economy.
The Fed is acting like a bunch of primitives trying to solve a crop fertilizer issue by throwing a virgin into the volcano. Hey, it worked once. We think.
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Post by epaul on Nov 4, 2022 22:59:49 GMT -5
Oh, I forgot to include Biden as inflation culprit.
No problem. I expect someone will address my oversight.
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Post by jdd2 on Nov 4, 2022 23:22:23 GMT -5
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Post by millring on Nov 5, 2022 4:07:22 GMT -5
It is possible that both things are true. Inflation is due to COVID-19 and Putin ... and our politicians overreaction to both. If blame does us any good, it might be in properly assigning it, facing that overreaction as the mistake it was, and not doubling down by rewarding the very ones (and the very thinking) who got us here.
We've been living long enough with government that believes it can act without counting the cost.
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Post by millring on Nov 5, 2022 5:37:41 GMT -5
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Post by theevan on Nov 5, 2022 6:50:22 GMT -5
I know! More stimulus checks to fight inflation!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Only 18% disagree.
Um, inflation is because the insane expansion of the money supply has the balloon at the popping point. Interest rate HAVE to be raised in order to prevent this. The can has been kicked down the road time after time after time after time. (Wait, now that tune is running through my head!) This is the day of reckoning.
Interesting winter looms. Lots of factors conspiring together.
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Post by jdd2 on Nov 5, 2022 7:03:12 GMT -5
Seems the only thing higher interest rates have really hit so far is the housing market, and perhaps only that depending on how 'hot' a local real estate mkt is. Yea, the stock mkt is down, but it also seems to be antsy about making a call on when the fed will back off a little--any whiff of that will make for a good rally. Heading into the holidays, spending still seems strong.
But if the republicans win big, it'll be like the dog that caught the car.
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Post by Cornflake on Nov 5, 2022 8:55:34 GMT -5
I don't think there's much that any president or congress can do about inflation. The Federal Reserve can. They're doing what they should be doing. Otherwise, we're all going to be unhappy for a while. There's no quick and easy answer.
The Republicans will probably take over congress. Nothing much will change. We'll go back to gridlock. As far as I can tell, the Republicans' inflation plan is to cut taxes and government spending. That's always their plan no matter what the problem. Inflation is a worldwide problem and our tax and spending levels don't have much to do with it.
Muddling through isn't our strong suit but sometimes it's all you can do.
PS: What our financial advisers said yesterday: "The market appears to have taken some support from the idea that the Fed could soon begin to scale back on the pace of its tightening program. On November 2, the Fed raised rates by 75bps for a fourth-straight time while signaling that its aggressive approach to curbing inflation may be approaching the final phase. The rate increase had been widely expected. Fed Chair Jerome Powell opened a new phase in his campaign to regain control of inflation, saying U.S. interest rates will go higher than previously projected, but the path may soon involve smaller hikes. Addressing reporters, Powell said, 'incoming data since our last meeting suggests that ultimate level of interest rates will be higher than previously expected… It is very premature to be thinking about pausing,' he added."
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Post by Marshall on Nov 5, 2022 9:00:32 GMT -5
. That makes no sense to me whatsoever |
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Post by Marshall on Nov 5, 2022 9:13:27 GMT -5
Unemployment is low, jobs and job growth is good, economic growth is growing. Why is the Fed trying to fuck it all up? The current inflation is the result of a couple oddball external events; the global economic shutdown in reaction to the Corona Virus and that damn Putin's invasion of Ukraine which totally screwed up global energy deliveries. Yet the Fed is operating under old rules from an old textbook that was written in response to inflation events that were entirely different than this current one. The inflation pressures affecting this country are not the result of internal forces but rather external events- China's Covid shutdown and fucking Putin. Yet the Fed feels it has to attack this "not our fault" inflation by punishing our domestic economy. The Fed is acting like a bunch of primitives trying to solve a crop fertilizer issue by throwing a virgin into the volcano. Hey, it worked once. We think. There's a lot of truth in there. It can be said about the FED that, when your only tool is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail. |
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Post by Cornflake on Nov 5, 2022 9:20:16 GMT -5
"There's a lot of truth in there. It can be said about the FED that, when your only tool is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail."
My take is a little different. We don't have many tools besides the hammer. Nixon imposed wage and price controls. We could do that. But it didn't work very well then and it probably wouldn't now.
The economic situation is weird. We're on uncharted waters. But there still aren't many non-totalitarian ways to solve the problem of too many dollars chasing too few goods and services. Making it harder to use borrowed dollars is a way that works.
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Post by Marshall on Nov 5, 2022 9:24:19 GMT -5
Like any macro policy, some get hurt more than others in the outflow. (Ask millring about that).And many who could/should be targeted skate free or benefit. I love these. I can't find one for the economy, but you get my drift.  |
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Post by brucemacneill on Nov 5, 2022 9:32:19 GMT -5
Remember to vote Republican Tuesday. Your life and lifestyle depend on it. The new world order doesn't include you at the top. In a soviet style world, which is the plan, we'll all be at the bottom, equal.
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Post by aquaduct on Nov 5, 2022 12:19:16 GMT -5
I don't think there's much that any president or congress can do about inflation. The Federal Reserve can. They're doing what they should be doing. Otherwise, we're all going to be unhappy for a while. There's no quick and easy answer. The Republicans will probably take over congress. Nothing much will change. We'll go back to gridlock. As far as I can tell, the Republicans' inflation plan is to cut taxes and government spending. That's always their plan no matter what the problem. Inflation is a worldwide problem and our tax and spending levels don't have much to do with it. Muddling through isn't our strong suit but sometimes it's all you can do. PS: What our financial advisers said yesterday: "The market appears to have taken some support from the idea that the Fed could soon begin to scale back on the pace of its tightening program. On November 2, the Fed raised rates by 75bps for a fourth-straight time while signaling that its aggressive approach to curbing inflation may be approaching the final phase. The rate increase had been widely expected. Fed Chair Jerome Powell opened a new phase in his campaign to regain control of inflation, saying U.S. interest rates will go higher than previously projected, but the path may soon involve smaller hikes. Addressing reporters, Powell said, 'incoming data since our last meeting suggests that ultimate level of interest rates will be higher than previously expected… It is very premature to be thinking about pausing,' he added." No, they can always stop inflating the money supply by spending more (billion and trillions more) than they actually have. That's exactly what politicians can do about inflation and exactly what Biden and the Democrats in Congress won't do, at least until Tuesday. |
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Post by aquaduct on Nov 5, 2022 12:22:07 GMT -5
By the way, when did the economy become represented by the stock market?
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Post by aquaduct on Nov 5, 2022 12:40:34 GMT -5
Unemployment is low, jobs and job growth is good, economic growth is growing. All of which is not including the at least close to record low labor participation rate of about 62%. Unemployment is low because most of the people who want to work are. But a huge chunk of folks don't want to work and have fallen out of the official count. From what I understand we are still significantly below the employment during Trump. Probably because everyone has figured out it's easier to be on Biden's public dole. |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 6, 2022 6:52:29 GMT -5
When President Trump took office, the labor participation rate was 62.8%. It peaked at 63.4% in February 2020. It hit a low of 60.2% in April 2020. It was 61.4% when he left office. Labor Participation Rate |
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Post by brucemacneill on Nov 6, 2022 7:00:43 GMT -5
When President Trump took office, the labor participation rate was 62.8%. It peaked at 63.4% in February 2020. It hit a low of 60.2% in April 2020. It was 61.4% when he left office. Labor Participation RateFollowed the pandemic, IMHO. |
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Post by james on Nov 6, 2022 16:32:34 GMT -5
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