A Must Read On Ukraine

[TKennedy]

One of the best I have read. Also one of the most disturbing. Paywall but worth the money.

www.nytimes.com/2023/08/06/world/europe/putins-forever-war.html

[Marshall]

Fantastic article

Being ideological, the war is doubly intractable. “There are currently no grounds for an agreement,” Dmitri S. Peskov, the Kremlin’s spokesman, told me. “We will continue the operation for the foreseeable future.”

Mr. Venediktov says he knows Mr. Putin well. He believes everyone, himself included, got the Russian leader wrong.

“We did not see the Putin who was on a historical mission of revenge,” he told me. “We thought he was a corrupt guy from a poor family who wanted yachts and palaces and girls and money. We did not see the K.G.B. officer who thought the loss of the Soviet Union was unjust. We thought he was a cynic. In fact, he was a romantic.”

[Cornflake]

That's an excellent article.

[t-bob]

Unfortunately I don't have an account NYT ;-(

[epaul]

This is Putin's one chance at Ukraine. It didn't go the way he thought it would. NATO stepped up. And now, his only hope to pull off his Ukrainian dream is Trump. And he will hold tough for as long as that hope lasts. But, if that hope goes away, he will negotiate. And if Ukraine understands where their bread is buttered, they will negotiate. There is plenty of Ukraine left without Crimea. And borders in that part of Europe are an arbitrary fiction at the best.

And if there is a negotiated settlement, and Ukraine is then admitted to NATO, there will be no "second try" by Putin. NATO's air superiority and superior weaponry across the board will insure that. Russia's massed forces couldn't roll over Ukraine when it was Ukraine alone, imagine the rout if NATO had been in the skies. Don't have to imagine. The war would have been effectively over in a week.

Putin may have dreams, but he doesn't have the time or the resources to have a second go at it. He will die or be "retired", and someone from a different generation with a different dream will look at Ukraine and say "Nyet! Not worth it. And I don't like the Chinese, I want to dance the economic and cultural fandango with my fellow Europeans."

[epaul]

And NATO and the US needs to take the gloves off concerning the offensive potential of the arms they supply Ukraine with. And in very private channels, convey to Putin that NATO will take to the skies if needed to protect the territory Ukraine now holds.

Carrot and Stick. The carrot is Crimea and a sliver of a land bridge. Ensure that Ukraine has plenty of sea access to the south.

(those easternmost regions of Ukraine haven't been very happy members of Ukraine, anyway. Cultures and borders are a mess. Ask the Basques about borders... or any number of cultural clans stuck inside a map they had no say in drawing.)

[Marshall]

Aug 6, 2023 21:45:46 GMT -5 epaul said:

NATO's air superiority and superior weaponry across the board will insure that.

There's a point missing here. The first act of "Air Superiority" is to take out your enemies air defenses, so you can fly freely. And Russia's air defenses are based largely on Russian soil. We're in a Viet Nam type situation where there are targets that are in territory that our forces are not allowed to strike. Hell of a way to run a war.

[Marshall]

But back to the article - It really is more about the psyche of the Russian people across the country. Very interesting read.

[epaul]

If a missile is fired at a NATO jet protecting Ukrainian airspace, the launcher firing that missile is taken out.

[epaul]

I thought I found a backdoor to the article, but, maybe I didn't. The article I found had a section stating that the problem with a negotiated settlement was the fear that Putin would regroup and invade again later on in hopes of getting more goodies.

Sounds like I found the wrong article.

[jdd2]

Aug 6, 2023 21:45:46 GMT -5 epaul said:

... And borders in that part of Europe are an arbitrary fiction at the best.
...

Darn tootin' -- "54 40 or fight!"

[Dub]

Aug 6, 2023 19:13:31 GMT -5 t-bob said:

Unfortunately I don't have an account NYT ;-(

Here is a gift link to the article.

[jdd2]

Aug 6, 2023 23:15:05 GMT -5 jdd2 said:

Aug 6, 2023 21:45:46 GMT -5 epaul said:

... And borders in that part of Europe are an arbitrary fiction at the best.
...

Darn tootin' -- "54 40 or fight!"

To save anyone some googling. I grew up in the midwest, and had never heard of this till much later: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oregon_boundary_dispute

Imagine if BC was some kind of US state (South Alaska?), and that Alaska was part of the contiguous US.




Talk about arbitrary fictions...!

[Cornflake]

I suspect that the best (and perhaps only) solution to this mess is to wait for Putin to die.

NATO is going to be very slow to admit Ukraine. If Ukraine were a member, NATO members would be obligated to go to war to defend it against the Russian incursion. I don't want the US to be in that position. Most NATO members don't want to be in that position.

[RickW]

Aug 7, 2023 7:45:12 GMT -5 Cornflake said:

I suspect that the best (and perhaps only) solution to this mess is to wait for Putin to die.

NATO is going to be very slow to admit Ukraine. If Ukraine were a member, NATO members would be obligated to go to war to defend it against the Russian incursion. I don't want the US to be in that position. Most NATO members don't want to be in that position.

The US might be reluctant. The Europeans would be quite happy; yet another buffer between them and the Russians, or whomever else comes that way. Much better for them to fight there than on their own soil. NATO was already getting down and out, this entire affair has supercharged them, not just because of the US, but because the old fear of the Russians has been revived.

[PaulKay]

The one thing I noticed from reading this is the role that Russian propaganda plays in shaping the entire society's views.
That one dimensional source of news clearly has immense power.

Mr. Vlasov’s friends, most of whom admire Mr. Putin, asked him when he had last watched TV. He replied: “I stopped watching 10 years ago. It’s all garbage. And that’s why I have a different view.”

[Cornflake]

Rick, we seem to be saying the same thing in different ways. I think Europe is happy to support Ukraine. Going to war with Russia is a very different matter. That might include Russian drone attacks on Berlin and London. It would increase the risk of things spiraling out of control to the point that nukes are used. Allowing Ukraine to join NATO would technically obligate the Europeans to respond as if their own country had been attacked. I think they'll keep Ukraine waiting at the altar until allowing it to join has fewer bad consequences.

[t-bob]

Aug 6, 2023 23:44:56 GMT -5 Dub said:

Aug 6, 2023 19:13:31 GMT -5 t-bob said:

Unfortunately I don't have an account NYT ;-(

Here is a gift link to the article.

Gracias

in your email

[aquaduct]

Love this quote:

"In Moscow, a world away from Ulan-Ude, Western sanctions appear to have had little effect beyond stores like Dior that have signs saying, “Closed for technical reasons,” and the comical renaming of departed Western businesses, like “Stars,” for Starbucks."

Boy, who could have seen that coming?