Dub
Administrator
I'm gettin' so the past is the only thing I can remember.
Posts: 19,900
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Post by Dub on Oct 31, 2023 11:43:29 GMT -5
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Post by Russell Letson on Oct 31, 2023 13:01:29 GMT -5
I'm always a bit skeptical of "what the people really want" pieces--perhaps thanks to memories of Nixon's "silent majority" bullshit. Which is not to say that there isn't a segment of the Democratic votership that worries about Biden's age, or perhaps are affected by the relentless GOP propaganda efforts to portray him as Too Old or Past It--or perhaps are just feeling the need for Something New.
I wonder whether the telling lines in that White piece are "I'm running for the majority of Americans, who want somebody different" and "he’s running because many lawmakers 'aren’t listening' to Americans who 'want change.'" My first questions would be, "What kind of change, exactly? What policies, what programs, what emphases?" Followed by "And exactly which Americans?"
But I was only able to read the first few paragraphs of the piece before the subscribe-nag fadeout. Maybe there's something more to her argument or to Phillips' rationale for dividing the non-GOP electorate. And practically speaking, what does the Democratic potential-President bench look like? I suspect that Kamala Harris is more able than a lot of people think, and there are probably some governors and a Senator or two who are actually up to the job--but national political organizations seem to work by a combination of seniority rosters and primate ambition, and I when I don't see a lot of ambition showing, I wonder whether the current pyramid might not be the optimal one, given the resources available and the political-cultural environment.
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Post by epaul on Oct 31, 2023 13:27:38 GMT -5
I am thinking about another sitting Democratic president who was challenged in the New Hampshire primary, and I'm going, "hmmm...?".
A surprisingly strong showing by Eugene McCarthy in 1968 is credited for convincing LBJ to not seek re-election. Though it was McCarthy's primary challenge that created the opening, McCarthy himself wasn't considered by most in the party to be a worthy candidate. Robert Kennedy and sitting VP Hubert Humphrey both leapfrogged McCarthy. Then a bunch of shit happened.
Could history repeat itself (not completely, I would hope). Though Phillips probably doesn't think of himself as a stalking horse, if he shows well in New Hampshire and picks up some polling steam, maybe Biden will say to hell with it, just as LBJ did. If so, then other, stronger, Democratic possibles will jump (or be called) into the can Phillips has opened. Kamala Harris will jump in the ring. And, personally, I would hope Gretchen Whitmore would get enticed in as well. And California Gov. Newsome will be heard from.
If this plays out, my money and hope will be that Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer comes out on top. I think she would be a formidable candidate and would win in a cakewalk if the D's somehow are able to find the good sense to pick her as their candidate.
Phillips will never get the nomination, but he could be the one to open the door for someone else. Just as McCarthy did in 1968.
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Post by epaul on Oct 31, 2023 13:47:34 GMT -5
It probably was more than just McCarthy's N.H. challenge that convinced LBJ to drop out. There are good indications that Vietnam becoming what it became just wore him down and did him in.
Well, I suspect Biden is being worn down, as well. If Phillips shows clearly that it is not just Phillips that thinks he should step aside, I don't think Biden would be all that heartbroken about doing so. Especially if the ones most likely to get the nod were not from the progressive wing.
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