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Post by Cornflake on Dec 6, 2023 9:20:13 GMT -5
Since my retirement depends on the economy, I've taken to following news about the economy more than I used to. What's been noteworthy for much of the past year is that the economy is in good shape and inflation is way down, and many Americans don't believe either of those things. Here's an attempt at a free share of Paul Krugman's most recent newsletter. It gets into part of this subject. www.nytimes.com/2023/12/05/opinion/inflation-disinflation-economists.html?unlocked_article_code=1.D00.gxha.GgTWuASvX1Co&smid=url-shareThe improvements on the inflation front are a matter of fact, not opinion. People's overly gloomy view of the economy is a little puzzling but I find many things puzzling. Anyway, it's good to have some good news. Old age is difficult enough without having to fight your way through a depression. |
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Post by Cosmic Wonder on Dec 6, 2023 9:30:21 GMT -5
The general population’s understanding of anything complex is depressing.
Mike
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Post by RickW on Dec 6, 2023 9:40:26 GMT -5
You can’t discount the effect of the current political mayhem in the US, the war in the Ukraine and then Israel, on the general optimism of anyone. When the world feels like a dark place, it’s easy to believe everything is bad.
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Post by Cornflake on Dec 6, 2023 9:53:50 GMT -5
"You can’t discount the effect of the current political mayhem in the US, the war in the Ukraine and then Israel, on the general optimism of anyone. When the world feels like a dark place, it’s easy to believe everything is bad."
I think you're right, Rick. Toss in climate change while you're at it.
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Post by majorminor on Dec 6, 2023 10:51:51 GMT -5
So it just seems like the economy sucks but it really doesn't? Gotcha. I'm sure all those guys up the road wrapping visqueen around their travel trailers at the RV park to get through the winter will be glad to hear that!
My tongue in cheek counter point is one's view on the state of the economy is not always based on national trends. It usually flows from regional housing costs and wages and the price of groceries and gas, and the biggest factor of all: one's personal economic circumstances. And really what I think he's saying in your article is "yeah the economy sucked for a long time but it looks like the things we tried to do about it are maybe starting to do something. We think. And hey, it wasn't ALL bad. See? Look at this graph."
Anyway - I would in fact agree the economy is better at present than it was say a year ago. House prices have rolled off a little and there are more than 1 or 2 available locally at a price some young workinging couples might actually be able to buy. Gas is no longer at an all time high. People aren't shooting each other over a sheet of plywood. All good stuff. But let's not equate "the economy sucks less" or "could have sucked worse" with "the economy is good". Especially in an election year dammit!
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Post by theevan on Dec 6, 2023 11:07:49 GMT -5
The general population’s understanding of anything complex is depressing. Mike I know, right? |
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Post by Rob Hanesworth on Dec 6, 2023 11:13:16 GMT -5
The sign at the gas station says gas is down to $2.83/gallon, which must be a lie because Biden is still president. I remember some earlier posts, when gas was much higher during Biden's administration waxing nostalgic about how cheap it was under Trump.
Either the president should get blame/credit or he shouldn't. I suggest the latter.
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Post by Rob Hanesworth on Dec 6, 2023 11:18:54 GMT -5
The general population’s understanding of anything complex is depressing. Mike I know, right? That's the wonderful thing about the SoundHole. When I have trouble understanding complex things, as my feeble mind often does, there's always an expert here to step up and clarify it for me by providing definitive, indisputable truth. Often several experts, which can re-confuse me. |
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Post by coachdoc on Dec 6, 2023 11:35:43 GMT -5
So it just seems like the economy sucks but it really doesn't? Gotcha. I'm sure all those guys up the road wrapping visqueen around their travel trailers at the RV park to get through the winter will be glad to hear that! My tongue in cheek counter point is one's view on the state of the economy is not always based on national trends. It usually flows from regional housing costs and wages and the price of groceries and gas, and the biggest factor of all: one's personal economic circumstances. And really what I think he's saying in your article is "yeah the economy sucked for a long time but it looks like the things we tried to do about it are maybe starting to do something. We think. And hey, it wasn't ALL bad. See? Look at this graph." Anyway - I would in fact agree the economy is better at present than it was say a year ago. House prices have rolled off a little and there are more than 1 or 2 available locally at a price some young workinging couples might actually be able to buy. Gas is no longer at an all time high. People aren't shooting each other over a sheet of plywood. All good stuff. But let's not equate "the economy sucks less" or "could have sucked worse" with "the economy is good". Especially in an election year dammit! Visqueen?? |
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Post by majorminor on Dec 6, 2023 11:36:03 GMT -5
The sign at the gas station says gas is down to $2.83/gallon, which must be a lie because Biden is still president. I remember some earlier posts, when gas was much higher during Biden's administration waxing nostalgic about how cheap it was under Trump. Either the president should get blame/credit or he shouldn't. I suggest the latter. $3.10 a gallon here for the cheap stuff. $3.70 for ethanol free. Biden must like you guys better than us?  |
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Dub
Administrator
I'm gettin' so the past is the only thing I can remember.
Posts: 19,914 
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Post by Dub on Dec 6, 2023 11:54:48 GMT -5
Biden must like you guys better than us? Well, DUH!  |
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Post by Rob Hanesworth on Dec 6, 2023 12:00:51 GMT -5
So it just seems like the economy sucks but it really doesn't? Gotcha. I'm sure all those guys up the road wrapping visqueen around their travel trailers at the RV park to get through the winter will be glad to hear that! My tongue in cheek counter point is one's view on the state of the economy is not always based on national trends. It usually flows from regional housing costs and wages and the price of groceries and gas, and the biggest factor of all: one's personal economic circumstances. And really what I think he's saying in your article is "yeah the economy sucked for a long time but it looks like the things we tried to do about it are maybe starting to do something. We think. And hey, it wasn't ALL bad. See? Look at this graph." Anyway - I would in fact agree the economy is better at present than it was say a year ago. House prices have rolled off a little and there are more than 1 or 2 available locally at a price some young workinging couples might actually be able to buy. Gas is no longer at an all time high. People aren't shooting each other over a sheet of plywood. All good stuff. But let's not equate "the economy sucks less" or "could have sucked worse" with "the economy is good". Especially in an election year dammit! Visqueen?? Visqueen is a brand name for big rolls of plastic wrap similar to a painter's drop cloth. Comes in various mil thicknesses. Used to wrap stuff for moisture protection among other uses. |
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Post by Russell Letson on Dec 6, 2023 12:09:25 GMT -5
William Gibson pointed out that the future is already here, but it's not evenly distributed. And it seems to me that almost nothing socioeconomic is evenly distributed and uniform all the way through, like Velveeta. So the big-picture headlines about the health of the economy (decreasing inflation, improving employment and wages) are true enough--and it's also true that there remain parts of the system that are not so healthy; and where the recovery has not been as strong; and where that partial recovery has left people still behind where they were five years ago.
And where some of them were five years ago wasn't so hot anyway--their jobs had long since been moved offshore or to some low-wage/no-unions region, they were living paycheck to mediocre paycheck, they were working two jobs, they were in a generations-deep hole, and so on. And some of them had taken on more debt than was prudent.
Then there's the insistence that a President or a political party is somehow responsible for all the good and bad stuff that happens, which is always a tricky bit of analysis. Certainly gas prices are driven by forces and interests far from the White House or Congress. "The economy" is more than the stock market or the rate of inflation or the actions of the Fed--and it is affected by the actions of the financial sector, of the controllers of capital (looking at you, hedge funds), of off-shore actors (warmongers, OPEC), of the planet itself (climate change, natural disasters).
Biden didn't break it and Trump won't fix it and Congress can't get its head out of its ass long enough to look at it.
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Post by Cornflake on Dec 6, 2023 12:41:59 GMT -5
It's certainly true that some individuals and some regions can be doing poorly when the economy as a whole is healthy. My area was much slower than most to recover from the Great Recession.
I don't think Biden has much to do with this, one way or the other.
There aren't different Republican measurements and Democratic measurements. The numbers are what they are.
A lot of people were predicting that we couldn't lower inflation without triggering a recession. So far we have. To me that's very good news. Views may differ.
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Post by james on Dec 6, 2023 13:14:09 GMT -5
Thanks for the gift-link.
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Post by epaul on Dec 6, 2023 13:18:59 GMT -5
I have been trying to test drive a Hyundai Tucson Hybrid for the last month. But as soon as one shows up, it is either presold or is sold as soon as it gets off the truck. One came in yesterday. I scheduled a test drive for this afternoon. It was sold this morning. Three more are coming in sometime in about ten days to two weeks. Two of those are sold. I am on the call list for a test drive.
Those Tucson Hybrids are hotter than a fresh off the grill pancake. It only took me three weeks to line up a test drive of a CRV Hybrid. Maybe I'll have to pay David a visit.
Anyway, talking with area dealers, I'm told new cars are selling like candy. And I believe them as the showrooms around here pretty empty. So, if new car sales are a metric, the economy can't be in the toilet.
Construction is hot as well. At least up here. Buildings are going up right and left, both home and commercial. And every store window has a "We are hiring" sign on it. And the wooly bear caterpillars I've seen have don't have much black on them, which, as favorable economic auguries go, is a pretty good one.
The widely predicted and feared recession didn't show. True, the economy isn't even, but then it never has been and never will be. Examples of everything economic in micro can be found, are always there to be found... and used for any argument to any purpose. That is why broad economic indicators are used to tell the tale. Everyone on the boat has a different story to tell, what matters is, is the boat floating or sinking. And according to the marks on the hull, the boat is floating pretty darn good.
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Post by Russell Letson on Dec 6, 2023 13:19:32 GMT -5
Here in St. Cloud, "the economy" has been good to us for nearly a half-century now. C. is a tenured full professor in a unionized state university. At this stage, we have no debt (and never had much anyway). Our health has been quite good, and what problems we've had have been taken care of by a very good local health-care system and paid for by very good (state-supported) insurance. Our retirement income will be supported by the state pension plan, Social Security, and carefully-managed savings. We've been careful and lucky and had the good fortune to live in a solid part of the socioeconomic system.
Other folks in St. Cloud have not had it so easy. It has long been a union-unfriendly area, which drew various kinds of businesses, which meant decent employment opportunities but also mediocre wages*. Lots of low-end service work has been supplied by students, which are getting to be in short supply. And at least one of the big manufacturing outfits decided that it could make Frigidaire freezers more cheaply in South Carolina. (No unions, doncha know.) Gannett acquired the family-run local paper, and that operation had a decent run printing USA Today at its plant. But last year Gannett got rid of the last of its local staff, reducing the paper to a kind of ghost.
So when some Trump fan complains about the state of the local economy, I think of the national/international forces that operated on it and wonder whether it would do any good to point out any of the above facts.
* Years ago, we heard that local business owners complained that it was hard to hire clerical staff at the traditional low rates because the unionized University offered better pay, benefits, and job security. Damn women wanted to be paid a living wage. The noive!
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Post by Rob Hanesworth on Dec 6, 2023 13:26:25 GMT -5
The fact that some people always have it better than some other people won't come as a surprise to the guy whose job is to squirt exactly one inch of toothpaste onto King Charles's toothbrush.
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Post by Rob Hanesworth on Dec 6, 2023 13:47:20 GMT -5
It's certainly true that some individuals and some regions can be doing poorly when the economy as a whole is healthy. My area was much slower than most to recover from the Great Recession. I don't think Biden has much to do with this, one way or the other. There aren't different Republican measurements and Democratic measurements. The numbers are what they are. A lot of people were predicting that we couldn't lower inflation without triggering a recession. So far we have. To me that's very good news. Apparently opinions differ. Very true, Don. Back in October you posted to Bruce that you hoped things were well with him and he responded: It definitely sounds like the area Bruce lives in is a tough place to live if you need any kind of services. But, like you, I don't think they relate to who is president. Bruce will vote for Trump but I have to wonder which of Bruce's problems Trump will solve. |
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Post by millring on Dec 6, 2023 20:11:39 GMT -5
If you make more money on your investments than the working man makes with his wage, then you are bound to think this is a good economy. You can laugh at the poor who can't fill a grocery bag and sneer at the Social Security dependent.
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