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Post by Marshall on Oct 4, 2018 11:43:13 GMT -5
It’s Thursday and we still haven’t had an investigation worthy of the word. A one week investigation into a possible attempted rape was so limited that it concluded in three days. Evidence, bombshell or otherwise, will not be coming. It probably would have been helpful if she could remember any verifiable fact other than her name. I had a talk with my wife. She remembers being very scared in college (in Iowa) when, at a kegger on a farm with a bunch of college friends (fraternity?), when a guy got aggressive and pushed her down. They were alone taking a walk away from the party at the time. She resisted. Nothing more happened. But she was very scared. She remembers the guy vividly. Can't remember what year of college it was. Or even where the farm was for the party. Or much else about the party.
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Post by Chesapeake on Oct 4, 2018 11:43:33 GMT -5
As of mid-day Thursday (10/4), it looks like the cake is baked. After ignoring dozens if not hundreds of possible leads because of time and subject limits, the FBI report seems to contain no bombshells - at least that's what GOP leaders are saying. It looks like most if not all of the undecided senators are signalling they will use the report as cover to support Kavanaugh, and that confirmation is as sure a thing as anything can be sure D.C. in the current political era. Twenty-four hours can be a long time in said era, but it looks like the smart money is on Bret.
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Kavanaugh
Oct 4, 2018 12:16:40 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by theevan on Oct 4, 2018 12:16:40 GMT -5
Smart money, me of course, was always on Brett.
I don't think a report like you described will be used as cover by the majority of yes votes. Just the few that may have to explain their vote to their constituency
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Post by Marshall on Oct 4, 2018 12:57:23 GMT -5
There's only 4 votes that are to be watched; the Maine and Alaska female senators, and Corker and Flake. If 2 of them flip (not likely) K is toast. Otherwise it's a done deal.
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Post by Chesapeake on Oct 4, 2018 13:56:54 GMT -5
There's only 4 votes that are to be watched; the Maine and Alaska female senators, and Corker and Flake. If 2 of them flip (not likely) K is toast. Otherwise it's a done deal. There's also been some doubt about the Democrat, Manchin. As I read it, only Murkowski remains in serious doubt, mainly because her indigenous Alaska constituents overwhelmingly oppose Kavanaugh.
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Post by billhammond on Oct 4, 2018 14:03:01 GMT -5
It's going to be a "no" vote on Brett Kavanaugh from North Dakota's Heidi Heitkamp (HYT'-kamp), one of the few Democratic senators who'd been undecided on the Supreme Court nominee.
Heitkamp says in a statement that "there are many extremely qualified candidates" for the nation's highest court and she's ready to work with President Donald Trump "to confirm a nominee who is suited for the honor and distinction of serving this lifetime appointment."
But there's no sign Trump is abandoning Kavanaugh, and a procedural vote is set for the Senate on Friday.
Heitkamp has come under pressure over where she stood on Kavanaugh's nomination. She's facing a tight re-election race in a state that Trump won by a large margin in 2016. Her opponent is a GOP congressman, Kevin Cramer, and the race is seen as critical for Republicans' chances to keep the Senate.
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Post by patrick on Oct 4, 2018 14:24:18 GMT -5
I heard an interview just now with Heitkamp's brother, who is a radio announcer in N. Dakota. Right now she is down about 12 points against her R challenger, but he pointed out that the last time she was elected she was down 10 pts a week before the election. And N. Dakota may be red, but people are pissed at Trump, especially farmers who've seen big drops in prices for their crops due to the tariffs.
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Post by epaul on Oct 4, 2018 14:42:22 GMT -5
Folks here (generally) like Heidi, but they (generally) can't abide the national Democratic party.
And folks here (generally) don't like Kevin Cramer, but they (generally) can't abide the national Democratic party.
It will come down to who is disliked more, Cramer or the national Democratic party. If it hadn't been for the pipeline fiasco and the Democrats too eager role in it, Heidi would have been in fine shape. As it is, it is not a good time to be a Democrat in North Dakota. But, Heidi is personable and well-liked while Cramer is a dead fish in a rented cardigan, so..., time will tell.
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Post by patrick on Oct 4, 2018 14:49:24 GMT -5
Folks here (generally) like Heidi, but they (generally) can't abide the national Democratic party. And folks here (generally) don't like Kevin Cramer, but they (generally) can't abide the national Democratic party. It will come down to who is disliked more, Cramer or the national Democratic party. If it hadn't been for the pipeline fiasco and the Democrats too eager role in it, Heidi would have been in fine shape. As it is, it is not a good time to be a Democrat in North Dakota. But, Heidi is personable and well-liked while Cramer is a dead fish in a borrowed cardigan, so..., time will tell. Well, for God's sake, can't Trump buy him a cardigan? ![:)](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/smiley.png)
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Post by Chesapeake on Oct 4, 2018 15:48:43 GMT -5
All who think this will be over after Kavanaugh gets confirmed tomorrow, raise your hands.
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Kavanaugh
Oct 4, 2018 16:18:14 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by theevan on Oct 4, 2018 16:18:14 GMT -5
All who think this will be over after Kavanaugh gets confirmed tomorrow, raise your hands. Maybe not right away, but it will, just as it did with Thomas.
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Post by sidheguitarmichael on Oct 4, 2018 16:22:01 GMT -5
I think this one is as good as over. In the final analysis, I think it comes down to "don't show up with a knife to a gunfight, and don't show up with a gun to a Mitch McConnell fight". ![](https://i.imgur.com/0hVTkv8.jpg)
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Post by jdd2 on Oct 4, 2018 16:29:11 GMT -5
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Post by Shannon on Oct 4, 2018 16:34:11 GMT -5
I think this one is as good as over. In the final analysis, I think it comes down to "don't show up with a knife to a gunfight, and don't show up with a gun to a Mitch McConnell fight". ![](https://i.imgur.com/0hVTkv8.jpg) That comic is hilarious!
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Kavanaugh
Oct 4, 2018 17:18:46 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by james on Oct 4, 2018 17:18:46 GMT -5
We live in an information age. It is possible to find public records of charges against people online. I've done that. Like others, I dare say, I am often curious about the people who throw stones.
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Post by theevan on Oct 4, 2018 17:21:59 GMT -5
Folks here (generally) like Heidi, but they (generally) can't abide the national Democratic party. And folks here (generally) don't like Kevin Cramer, but they (generally) can't abide the national Democratic party. It will come down to who is disliked more, Cramer or the national Democratic party. If it hadn't been for the pipeline fiasco and the Democrats too eager role in it, Heidi would have been in fine shape. As it is, it is not a good time to be a Democrat in North Dakota. But, Heidi is personable and well-liked while Cramer is a dead fish in a borrowed cardigan, so..., time will tell. Well, for God's sake, can't Trump buy him a cardigan? ![:)](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/smiley.png) Everything's gone to heck since Mister Roger's passed.
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Post by epaul on Oct 4, 2018 18:03:38 GMT -5
All who think this will be over after Kavanaugh gets confirmed tomorrow, raise your hands. Could you elaborate? If Kavanaugh is confirmed tomorrow, how is it not over? What are our choices for the "not over" part? Impeachment? I suppose the House can impeach him if the Dems get control but it seems beyond remote that two-thirds of a basically 50/50 Senate would ever vote for conviction. Two-thirds would require about 25 Republicans to do a 180 on the deal. Pelican Brief?
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Post by brucemacneill on Oct 4, 2018 18:20:05 GMT -5
All who think this will be over after Kavanaugh gets confirmed tomorrow, raise your hands. Could you elaborate? If Kavanaugh is confirmed tomorrow, how is it not over? What are our choices for the "not over" part? Impeachment? I suppose the House can impeach him if the Dems get control but it seems beyond remote that two-thirds of a basically 50/50 Senate would ever vote for conviction. Two-thirds would require about 25 Republicans to do a 180 on the deal. Pelican Brief? I think I heard that Jeff wears Pelican briefs for the extra storage space.
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Post by epaul on Oct 4, 2018 18:37:31 GMT -5
I am wondering why it is assumed that Flake and Corker are going to vote for Trump's guy? Both are "retired" Republicans, largely because of Trump. They are free men. They don't have to worry about pleasing the Trump Base. Rather, if either wishes to pursue a future in politics, it would have to be as "Anti-Trump" Republicans. And if they have no interest in continuing in politics, but perhaps have another sort of public presence or service in mind, how better to start on this new career path than by using a "country first, heal the divide, re-build the middle" argument to justify their "No" votes.
It sure wouldn't surprise me if Flake, Corker, Collins, and Murkowski all voted no to Kavanaugh. Especially Flake, Collins, and Murkowski.
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Kavanaugh
Oct 4, 2018 18:50:12 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by aquaduct on Oct 4, 2018 18:50:12 GMT -5
I am wondering why it is assumed that Flake and Corker are going to vote for Trump's guy? Both are "retired" Republicans, largely because of Trump. They are free men. They don't have to worry about pleasing the Trump Base. Rather, if either wishes to pursue a future in politics, it would have to be as "Anti-Trump" Republicans. And if they have no interest in continuing in politics, but perhaps have another sort of public presence or service in mind, how better to start on this new career path than by using a "country first, heal the divide, re-build the middle" argument to justify their "No" votes. It sure wouldn't surprise me if Flake, Corker, Collins, and Murkowski all voted no to Kavanaugh. Especially Flake, Collins, and Murkowski. Probably because they don't want to be known as gutless cowards for the rest of their livesand being called out for it in the local grocery store parking lot.
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