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Post by Cornflake on May 4, 2020 14:49:19 GMT -5
Oh swell
"Daily Death Toll Will Nearly Double by June, Trump Administration Models Predict." NY Times.
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Post by aquaduct on May 4, 2020 14:51:18 GMT -5
Oh swell "Daily Death Toll Will Nearly Double by June, Trump Administration Models Predict." NY Times. And what is the daily death toll currently?
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Post by Cornflake on May 4, 2020 15:00:14 GMT -5
According to the article, about 1,750. "The situation has devolved most dramatically in parts of rural America that were largely spared in the early stages of the pandemic. As food processing facilities and prisons have emerged as some of the country’s largest case clusters, the counties that include Logansport, Ind., South Sioux City, Neb., and Marion, Ohio, have surpassed New York City in cases per capita." www.nytimes.com/2020/05/04/us/coronavirus-updates.html
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Post by aquaduct on May 4, 2020 15:08:30 GMT -5
According to the article, about 1,750. "The situation has devolved most dramatically in parts of rural America that were largely spared in the early stages of the pandemic. As food processing facilities and prisons have emerged as some of the country’s largest case clusters, the counties that include Logansport, Ind., South Sioux City, Neb., and Marion, Ohio, have surpassed New York City in cases per capita." www.nytimes.com/2020/05/04/us/coronavirus-updates.htmlThat's cases, not deaths. Which is inevitable seeing as how grossly under counted cases appear to be up to now. Some studies are saying current cases so far have been under counted by 50-85 times. So now that you're testing, it shouldn't be a shock that you're finding many more cases that were there all along. So what is the daily death rate?
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Post by majorminor on May 4, 2020 15:11:10 GMT -5
"While the country has stabilized, it has not really improved, as shown by data collected by The Times. Case and death numbers remain on a numbing, tragic plateau that is tilting only slightly downward."
Ummmm......
....and....."The Trump administration projects about 3,000 daily deaths by early June" followed by "The White House responded that the new projections had not been vetted. “This is not a White House document, nor has it been presented to the coronavirus task force or gone through interagency vetting,” said Judd Deere, a White House spokesman. “This data is not reflective of any of the modeling done by the task force or data that the task force has analyzed.”"
Ummmmm......
I have no clue what's going to happen to the death toll going forward but the above excerpts are just examples of a poorly written article IMO YMMV LOL BFD ETC
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Post by Cornflake on May 4, 2020 15:41:44 GMT -5
I understand. My mileage varies.
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Post by james on May 4, 2020 16:21:37 GMT -5
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Post by Cornflake on May 4, 2020 16:32:46 GMT -5
As if we needed more good cheer, the IHME projections were revised today and got worse for the US and for my state. They now project 134,000 deaths in the country by August 4th. There are a lot of qualifications to those numbers, too. Often IHME explains to the press what caused revisions and I'll want to read it.
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Post by james on May 4, 2020 17:13:31 GMT -5
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COVID 19
May 4, 2020 18:24:34 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by aquaduct on May 4, 2020 18:24:34 GMT -5
As if we needed more good cheer, the IHME projections were revised today and got worse for the US and for my state. They now project 134,000 deaths in the country by August 4th. There are a lot of qualifications to those numbers, too. Often IHME explains to the press what caused revisions and I'll want to read it. The problem is that the projections started dead wrong. Apparently none of those guys ever studied statistics. I wouldn't trust those numbers if my life depended on it. And the further we go, the less my life seems to depend on it.
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Post by james on May 4, 2020 19:16:58 GMT -5
I'd be surprised if none of those people studied statistics. It is a not uncommon degree component. I managed to get my head around the essentials at University. Bit dull.
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COVID 19
May 4, 2020 19:19:33 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by aquaduct on May 4, 2020 19:19:33 GMT -5
I'd be surprised if none of those people studied statistics. It is a not uncommon degree component. I managed to get my head around the essentials at University. Bit dull. Did you miss the part about a system being so complex it can't be modeled? Apparently they did.
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Post by sidheguitarmichael on May 4, 2020 19:20:32 GMT -5
So what is the daily death rate?
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Post by james on May 4, 2020 19:46:24 GMT -5
Fivethirtyeight did another brief thing about models. They comment a little on some assumptions that are factored into several different ones that the CDC and others share. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/covid-forecasts/Edit (two hours after I first posted) - about IHME modelling they write "The IHME model is projecting between 91K and 150K deaths in the U.S. by May 30, with an average of 110K. It combines anonymized mobile phone data and current social distancing policies to estimate how much contact exists between people in a given area. It does not try to predict how isolation policies will change in the future, instead assuming that current policies and movement patterns will continue until new infections drop to a very small number."
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Post by james on May 4, 2020 20:17:30 GMT -5
So what is the daily death rate? As discussed previously, a key word is "daily"
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Post by millring on May 5, 2020 10:51:12 GMT -5
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Post by millring on May 5, 2020 11:32:47 GMT -5
Let's bookmark this. Our attention can surely span two months, right? This can be checked. And we're not going to get anywhere if we don't start holding these prognosticators to their word.
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Dub
Administrator
I'm gettin' so the past is the only thing I can remember.
Posts: 20,333
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Post by Dub on May 5, 2020 11:46:29 GMT -5
So, not a big fan then, right?
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Post by millring on May 5, 2020 11:52:25 GMT -5
So, not a big fan then, right? He's okay and it's well written. But it should be observed that the corporate greed in his life is with NPR and WaPo and all the proper-thinking elites of the National press.
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Dub
Administrator
I'm gettin' so the past is the only thing I can remember.
Posts: 20,333
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Post by Dub on May 5, 2020 12:02:29 GMT -5
So, not a big fan then, right? He's okay and it's well written. But it should be observed that the corporate greed in his life is with NPR and WaPo and all the proper-thinking elites of the National press.
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