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Post by epaul on Mar 31, 2020 12:51:21 GMT -5
James, if you go back and read though this thread ( I don't recall the page, so you will have to read through all 9,000 of them), you will discover that the Peter behavior you describe as bragging and scoffing did not occur spontaneously out some sort of viral-related spite but is rather a result of an ongoing disagreement that could be summarized thusly:
There are no vacuums or patches of innocence in a wide-rangeing forum that has been in existence now for going on three hundred years or so. Current blooms often have deep roots. (I am not informing you of anything you are not well aware of).
In this particular Peter/Russell interaction, both have understandable and rational positions. But, things have a way convolulating.
But, no need to take my word, just re-read the thread, it is all laid out somewhere between p, 2 and page p.746. You can do a search, just type in pages 2 through 746 into the search box.
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Post by brucemacneill on Mar 31, 2020 13:00:29 GMT -5
As I heard this morning, about 1 million Americans have been tested so far, mostly in the past couple of weeks. Since there are over 3 million Americans testing them all is going to take time and people to do the tests. Just now they're concentrating on people with symptoms or suspected contact with an infected source. The tests available today take hours or days to yield results. This new test is supposed to yield results in a matter of minutes and can be done at a doctor's office without hazmat suits. I'd say give it some time unless you have symptoms or suspect you've been infected. Maybe in a month or two the test will be routine, quick and producing data useful in designing the cure to have available before the next round.
To my knowledge, there is one reported case in my county about a week ago and no new cases since. I'll just stay away from groups, try not to touch anything, wash my hands when possible and try to survive unless I start to have symptoms.
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Post by epaul on Mar 31, 2020 13:00:58 GMT -5
I hasten to add that it was likely not Russell who started the ball rolling by calling Peter a fucking idiot for going to work. However, people get involved/dragged/entrenched into positions, and once in, are in for the duration...
unless in an act of supreme will power, you manage to extricate yourself from the battlefield.
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Post by epaul on Mar 31, 2020 13:11:34 GMT -5
The antibody test is the one that will be wanted. If personal and population immunity information is what is needed.
The current viral detection tests are a snapshot. Taking a viral test that reveals clean on Monday says nothing about what may happen on T,W,TH,F. Or the next week or month. Nor will taking a test every sniff or cough be informational if an asymptotic infection occurs.
But one antibody test in the summer will tell the tale, do you have the antibodies that will fight the good fight should this virus make a return trip... and it will offer the information needed to determine what percentage of the population was infected and has the useful antibodies present.
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Post by sidheguitarmichael on Mar 31, 2020 13:19:21 GMT -5
About 300 pages ago I was wondering aloud why we should get tested if we have only mild symptoms. There are several good answers but I found myself wondering about another possible answer. I've read that those who get infected acquire immunity. When the mess subsides a bit, it would help to know whether we have immunity or not. A test would tell us. Without a test, we'll just know that we had some symptoms that might have been the virus but might have been something else. Am I missing something? I do not believe you are missing anything. Firing on all 8 cylinders, IMO. It's fine not to know as long as you take precautions as if you are infected. One of the biggest reasons this has spread so quickly, is people without symptoms figure they don't have it and get careless about not spreading it. I am haunted by the scenario that played out over one of K’s follow-up doc appointments, where she let them know that we felt poor, and they ran the checklist available at the time, took our temps at the door, and declared us good to go. Hindsight has now added shortness of breath to my list, and loss of smell (which we both had) to theirs, and if we knew then what we know now, we would have passed on the appointment, and I wouldn’t have picked up mail, banked paychecks, etc. Regarding serum antibody tests, it’s definitely coming, but nobody knows for sure when it will begin to reach any sort of wider availability. This is coming to me via text message from the director of our special pathogens unit. If he can’t pin down a decent ETA, then anything we read is probably just a guess. My wife and I will absolutely be lining up to find out if we’ve been exposed, to see where we fit into the herd immunity scenario, so we can act accordingly. It’s not about us at this point, it’s about all of our social circle’s parents and immune compromised kids. It’s not about the odds, it’s about the stakes. JMO.
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Post by sidheguitarmichael on Mar 31, 2020 13:29:57 GMT -5
Also: my understanding is that current testing criteria is not about tracking the virus, or the infected—despite conventional wisdom/common sense/media cycling being what it is.
The testing being applied only to the sickest of the sick is to rule out COVID in case it’s something else. Current testing is a tool more akin to an MRI, than a CNN interactive mapping graphic, with medical personnel and emergency responders being the exceptions. I don’t think ‘testing’ means what we think it means—in the United States—at the present time. This is why people with all the symptoms who are not critical are being told to ‘treat at home’ and being denied a test, as a matter of routine course.
Flee from this idea that current C19 testing is a data tool; it’s not, it’s a lifesaving exclusionary diagnostic, and until the US gets it shit together on testing at least up to S Korea or Vietnam standards, know that any data we get as a side effect is flawed and uncontrolled.
If I was a betting man, and there was any way to know, I’d bet the the US actually has millions of cases already.
Anyhoo, everyone has an opinion. That’s mine, for this week, until a better one emerges.
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Post by millring on Mar 31, 2020 13:37:07 GMT -5
If I was a betting man, and there was any way to know, I’d bet the the US actually has millions of cases already. It's one of the great mysteries. Why, when California has thousands of Chinese in and out of the State every day, is it not the place where it is most effected? There are reports of widespread flu symptoms in CA that tested negative for flu back in December/January.
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Post by majorminor on Mar 31, 2020 16:46:45 GMT -5
A tangential observation. As I see various well known artists go by on my Facebook feed doing informal solo singer acoustic stuff from home I find myself thinking that in that no makeup frumpy clothes at home with the cat underfoot recorded with an iPhone way that I’ve seen performances by people here that could hang.
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Post by jdd2 on Mar 31, 2020 18:14:10 GMT -5
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Post by TKennedy on Mar 31, 2020 18:44:38 GMT -5
Some info from my “docwire” feed today. Germany is interesting. Germans follow directions!!
World News: The month of March has been rough on the world. The COVID-19 pandemic has dramatically altered everyday life for people across the globe and many loved ones have been lost before their times. Although numbers continue to rise, there may be a glimmer of hope in some countries that the worst has passed. Worldometer now reports 804,073 confirmed cases from the novel coronavirus and over 39,000 global deaths. The virus can now be found in 201 countries and territories and on every continent short of Antarctica.
The foreign countries most affected by COVID-19 remain:
Italy: 101,739 confirmed cases; 11,591 confirmed deaths (most of any country). Spain: 94,417 confirmed cases; 8,189 confirmed deaths. China: 81,518 confirmed cases; 3,305 confirmed deaths. Germany: 67,051 confirmed cases; 682 confirmed deaths. Iran: 44,605 confirmed cases; 2,898 confirmed deaths. France: 44,550 confirmed cases; 3,024 confirmed deaths. UK: 22,141 confirmed cases; 1,408 confirmed deaths. Switzerland: 16,186 confirmed cases; 395 confirmed deaths. Is the Worst Over in Italy? Despite Italy now exceeding 100,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases, there’s a reason for optimism, as the rate of infections seems to be subsiding, and the country reported that almost 1,600 people recovered in a single day. The World Health Organization has praised Italy’s work in containing the virus’ spread. “We do hope that Italy and Spain are nearly there, but the virus won’t go down by itself, it needs to be pushed down through public health efforts”, said Dr. Mike Ryan, a World Health Organization top emergencies expert. Referring specifically to Italy, Ryan also added: “We should start to see stabilization. The cases we see today really reflect exposures 2 weeks ago.”
Why is the Death Rate So Low in Germany? Inquiring medical minds are wondering why the coronavirus death rate is so low in Germany. The case fatality rate (CFR) in Germany is about 0.9%. By comparison, the CFR is 1% in the US, 4% in China, 6.4% in the UK, 8.6% in Spain, and a staggering 11.4% in Italy. A German journalist named Anna Sauerbrey, writing for The New York Times while in Berlin, posits that Germany might have a lower CFR due to “early and persistent testing,” coupled with contact tracing and targeted quarantines of German citizens exposed to the virus. “Between countries, there are several reasons why the death rate might vary, but they’re very small compared to the impact of how many people get tested,” Liam Smeeth, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said in an interview with Time. “Germany very rapidly rolled out testing to a very large number of people, relative to the population.”
National News: US Remains the Hardest Hit Country, Especially NY America is now feeling the full brunt of COVID-19, as the number of confirmed cases verges on 175,000, and there are now more than 3,400 deaths. At 75,795 confirmed cases, New York alone has more infections than every other country except Italy, Spain, and China. New York Andrew Cuomo stated in a press conference that “I’m tired of being behind this virus. We’ve been behind this virus from day one,” Cuomo said at a press conference in Albany. “We underestimated this virus. It’s more powerful, it’s more dangerous than we expected.”
New Jersey remains second in confirmed infections with 16,636 cases and 198 deaths. California has 7,426 confirmed cases and 149 deaths, and Michigan remains in the top four with 6,498 cases and 184 deaths.
The following states outside the top four have over 3,000 confirmed cases:
Florida: 6,338 confirmed cases; 77 deaths. Massachusetts: 5,752 confirmed cases; 56 deaths. Washington: 5,250 confirmed cases; 210 deaths. Illinois: 5,057 confirmed cases; 73 deaths. Pennsylvania: 4,843 confirmed cases; 63 deaths. Louisiana: 4,025 confirmed cases; 185 deaths. Texas: 3,186 confirmed cases; 47 deaths. Georgia: 3,032 confirmed cases; 102 deaths. Tuesday, March 31, 2020
Dr. Fauci Offers Encouragement on Social Distancing Infectious disease expert Dr. Anthony Fauci said mitigation tactics like social distancing are having a “dampening” effect on the COVID-19 pandemic in the US. “If you look now we’re starting to see glimmers that that is actually having some dampening effect,” he said Tuesday on CNN but cautioned that the public has to continue to take the measures seriously. Dr. Fauci added: “We hope and I believe it will happen, that we may start seeing a turn around, but we haven’t seen it yet we’re just pushing on the mitigation to hope that we do see that turnaround.”
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Post by epaul on Mar 31, 2020 19:28:32 GMT -5
"Inquiring medical minds are wondering why the coronavirus death rate is so low in Germany. The case fatality rate (CFR) in Germany is about 0.9%. By comparison, the CFR is 1% in the US..."
There is no statistical difference between Germany at .9% and the U.S. at 1.0%. The two percentages are for all practical and measurable differences a tie. The quoted portion of the sentence should read:
"Inquiring medical minds are wondering why the coronavirus death rate is so low in Germany [and the U.S.]. The case fatality rate (CFR) in Germany is about 0.9%. By comparison, the CFR is 1% in the US [which is exactly the same, by any applicable statistical measure]..."
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Post by Marshall on Mar 31, 2020 23:15:55 GMT -5
It's all in the digits, dude. We've got a whole nuther digit, man !
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Post by jdd2 on Apr 1, 2020 8:49:15 GMT -5
Walk up testing in korea:
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Post by Marshall on Apr 1, 2020 9:22:03 GMT -5
Brings new meaning to "Doc-in-a-box"
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Post by Cornflake on Apr 1, 2020 9:44:15 GMT -5
Arizona is now under a Shelter-in-Place Lite order. The exceptions are extensive. Golf courses and beauty salons remain open, as well as virtually all the stores that weren't already closed. Methinks our governor isn't taking this seriously enough. That's easy to do when everything looks so normal.
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Post by fauxmaha on Apr 1, 2020 11:25:29 GMT -5
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Post by millring on Apr 1, 2020 11:54:29 GMT -5
Leave it to Jeff to find a silver lining in all this.
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Post by billhammond on Apr 1, 2020 12:31:30 GMT -5
Meanwhile, in Baton Rouge: Idiot
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Post by millring on Apr 1, 2020 12:47:30 GMT -5
"Evangelical" sure doesn't mean what it used to.
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Post by sidheguitarmichael on Apr 1, 2020 12:53:12 GMT -5
As an aside, I am happy to say that both K and I’s sense of smell is returning, and with it comes my sense of humor, sense of propriety, and sense of adventure. I feel pretty darn good this morning. In hindsight, we both felt worse than we initially thought over the last 2 weeks. I also lost 9 pounds, and I’m not a big guy.
I was able to teach my online lessons yesterday without gassing out, to boot. So far, so good.
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