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Post by Cornflake on Apr 2, 2020 20:03:46 GMT -5
From reading a lot.
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Post by aquaduct on Apr 2, 2020 20:07:21 GMT -5
How do you know they're right? How do the numbers actually work?
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Post by aquaduct on Apr 2, 2020 20:26:51 GMT -5
Or, more succinctly, what exactly gives you the right to decide that my life must be destroyed when you are perfectly capable of staying in your house and avoiding infection completely independent of anything I do?
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Post by Cornflake on Apr 2, 2020 20:40:00 GMT -5
Peter, I haven't tried to tell you what to do.
What I do may be completely independent of anything you do because you're far away. It isn't independent of what other people in my area do. I risk infection when I have to go to the grocery store, mostly from people who aren't following the guidelines for social distancing. Those in your area face the same risk.
How does it work? Despite my liberal arts background I've acquired a pretty good idea of how pandemics work. Let's say you get infected. You have no symptoms for two weeks and maybe only minor symptoms thereafter. In the interim you're contagious and infect two people. While they're asymptomatic they infect two people. And so on. It's math, although imprecise math.
How do I know the experts are right? I don't. I spent my career working with imperfect information for lack of the perfect kind. But I do think people with expertise who know more than I do should be heeded.
Peace be with you.
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Post by sidheguitarmichael on Apr 2, 2020 21:05:32 GMT -5
In other news, Inslee just extended WA state’s stayathome until May4th. I’m gonna go nuts. K and I live in a very modest place.
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Post by david on Apr 2, 2020 21:18:20 GMT -5
Effluent hit the ventilator at work today -- we've been consolidating sections like crazy as print-ad orders have dropped off the cliff (Travel section, especially, no one is traveling, no travel-associated businesses are advertising, and we can't even write about close-to-home car travel options in good conscience, so we're reduced to using great past travel photos from our staff, sharing ways to use online resources to "travel," etc.). The union called an emergency meeting today after the company said dire measures are needed, asking for full-timers to accept the need for eight furlough days between now and September, delaying some pay increases that our latest contract calls for until September (w/ the wink/wink promise of retroactive repayment in September) and even saying that all of the managers are taking a pay cut, w/o specifying any numbers, natch. The contract does allow for layoffs amid economic need, but it also requires that buyouts be offered first, so I might, just might, come out of this OK, but I really wanted to keep working at least another year. September seems to be a month that a lot of businesses are aiming at as heading back to something near normal. Meanwhile, there is growing certainty that the MN State Fair, which brings millions of breathers together in love-handle-to-love-handle proximity for 12 days, ain't gonna happen. I'm sure of it, myself. I live a mile and a half from the fairgrounds, and if it were to be held this year, I don't think I would even go outside my house. And as much as it pains me to type this, I think we should all be prepared for Idiotjam to be delayed, if not scuttled, for 2020. Bill, work wise, that has to be upsetting news. Looks like you will get to make more tough decisions.
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COVID 19
Apr 2, 2020 21:32:53 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by aquaduct on Apr 2, 2020 21:32:53 GMT -5
In other news, Inslee just extended WA state’s stayathome until May4th. I’m gonna go nuts. K and I live in a very modest place. We're stay at home until June 10. Beat that.
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Post by Cornflake on Apr 2, 2020 21:34:24 GMT -5
"We're stay at home until June 10. Beat that." I hope I don't have to. But we well may have to beat that.
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Post by epaul on Apr 2, 2020 21:36:25 GMT -5
Hmmm... What if...
Ok, bear with me here. This will take a little time to explain and the lines I will be drawing are invisible. But, here we go.
We have all seen this line, [imagine a short line that reaches its apex quickly]. This is the line we want to avoid. This line has a short steep upwards curve to it which represents a sudden surge in infections that overwhelms our healthcare system. This is a bad line.
This is the good line, [imagine a line that has a lower, longer stretched out hump to it than the previous line]. This line has a lengthy, gradual upwards curve to it which represents a spreading out of the number of infections over a longer time frame which will allow our medical system to cope the the number of infected that need care because they won't all arrive at the same time.
But (this is where I veer into madness) what if the recommended stay at home regimen was followed so diligently and thoroughly by so many that we ended up with a line that looks like this [imagine a long line that is low in the beginning and still low in the middle but then shoots up like damn rocket at the end] This line represents a huge surge of infections that occur at the end of the cycle; a surge that does to the end of the infection cycle what we feared the first line [ big hump in the middle line ] would do, overwhelm our health care system. L
Long, low, surge like a rocket at the end line occurred because so many stayed so completely at home that the result was such a long, slow rate of infections throughout the early and middle stages, so long and so slow that, after two plus months of staying at home and seeing so few get sick, everyone decided it wasn't that big a deal anymore... and all rushed out of their stuffy locked-down homes and partied in the streets like drunken Satyrs. (Don't scoff. It happens every spring in Newfolden). Well, that places the surge we once feared would hit the middle at the end.
So, maybe, just maybe, the way it is shaking out, there is just the right amount of people wandering out about and getting sick and just the right number people staying at home and not getting sick to achieve the best outcome.
Well, it could be. Maybe.
I should be on a committee.
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Post by sidheguitarmichael on Apr 2, 2020 22:12:31 GMT -5
The wisdom of crowds, Paul, the wisdom of crowds. In the final analysis, however, I don’t think we have anywhere near as much say in this thing as the powers that be wish.
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Post by patrick on Apr 2, 2020 22:13:50 GMT -5
Hmmm... What if... Ok, bear with me here. This will take a little time to explain and the lines I will be drawing are invisible. But, here we go. We have all seen this line, [imagine a short line that reaches its apex quickly]. This is the line we want to avoid. This line has a short steep upwards curve to it which represents a sudden surge in infections that overwhelms our healthcare system. This is a bad line. This is the good line, [imagine a line that has a lower, longer stretched out hump to it than the previous line]. This line has a lengthy, gradual upwards curve to it which represents a spreading out of the number of infections over a longer time frame which will allow our medical system to cope the the number of infected that need care because they won't all arrive at the same time. But (this is where I veer into madness) what if the recommended stay at home regimen was followed so diligently and thoroughly by so many that we ended up with a line that looks like this [imagine a long line that is low in the beginning and still low in the middle but then shoots up like damn rocket at the end] This line represents a huge surge of infections that occur at the end of the cycle; a surge that does to the end of the infection cycle what we feared the first line [ big hump in the middle line ] would do, overwhelm our health care system. L Long, low, surge like a rocket at the end line occurred because so many stayed so completely at home that the result was such a long, slow rate of infections throughout the early and middle stages, so long and so slow that, after two plus months of staying at home and seeing so few get sick, everyone decided it wasn't that big a deal anymore... and all rushed out of their stuffy locked-down homes and partied in the streets like drunken Satyrs. (Don't scoff. It happens every spring in Newfolden). Well, that places the surge we once feared would hit the middle at the end. So, maybe, just maybe, the way it is shaking out, there is just the right amount of people wandering out about and getting sick and just the right number people staying at home and not getting sick to achieve the best outcome. Well, it could be. Maybe. I should be on a committee. Certainly a well-considered post, however, may I point out a few things. Most of America will not emerge from stay-at-home like a horde of raging horny vikings, though this is what happens in Newfolden every year as soon as the crocuses bloom. Every day of delay allows the development and deployment of tests that give us tools to deal with the pandemic in rational ways. Antibody tests to tell if someone has been infected and is now immune. A rapid test to determine in 20 minutes if a person is infected. The millions of tests that Trump falsely claims are available now will be available then. It will be possible to identify and isolate those with the virus from those not infected. And society can recover.
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Post by billhammond on Apr 2, 2020 22:24:28 GMT -5
And how are we going to hold truly representative elections this fall?
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Post by Cornflake on Apr 2, 2020 22:25:33 GMT -5
By mail, I hope, as we've done here for years. But partisan bullshit will get in the way of that.
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Post by Don Clark on Apr 2, 2020 22:33:10 GMT -5
The gal that does some housework for me just texted me saying that Dodge City (20 miles away) has it's first unconfirmed case.
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COVID 19
Apr 2, 2020 22:51:18 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by aquaduct on Apr 2, 2020 22:51:18 GMT -5
"We're stay at home until June 10. Beat that." I hope I don't have to. But we well may have to beat that. If it goes beyond that you just may have to get your groceries delivered.
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Post by Cornflake on Apr 3, 2020 11:30:40 GMT -5
Back from my weekly outing to the grocery. There were the usual shortages. Beef has been expensive for a long time but now even the inexpensive cuts are edging twenty bucks.
People are ahead of the government here. About half the shoppers were wearing face masks. A couple of days ago our governor issued a Shelter-in-Place Lite order. His office stated at the time that golf courses and beauty salons would be allowed to remain open. The governor has taken no end of flak about the beauty salons. Curiously, part of the flak came from salons; they said he was endangering their staff, which was odd, because the order didn't require that they stay open. He has now announced that beauty salons aren't exempt from the order unless they practice social distancing. I'd like to see the salon that can do that.
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Post by epaul on Apr 3, 2020 11:39:35 GMT -5
This event has been stressing me in many ways, but I would have to say not being able to get to my salon and get my hair done is leading the list. If you don't look right, nothing's right.
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Post by patrick on Apr 3, 2020 11:48:32 GMT -5
This event has been stressing me in many ways, but I would have to say not being able to get to my salon and get my hair done is leading the list. If you don't look right, nothing's right. And what about all the guitarists who can't get their acrylic nails touched up? What about them? Oh, the inanity, the inanity!
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Post by millring on Apr 3, 2020 12:05:33 GMT -5
Hmmm... What if... Ok, bear with me here. This will take a little time to explain and the lines I will be drawing are invisible. But, here we go. We have all seen this line, [imagine a short line that reaches its apex quickly]. This is the line we want to avoid. This line has a short steep upwards curve to it which represents a sudden surge in infections that overwhelms our healthcare system. This is a bad line. This is the good line, [imagine a line that has a lower, longer stretched out hump to it than the previous line]. This line has a lengthy, gradual upwards curve to it which represents a spreading out of the number of infections over a longer time frame which will allow our medical system to cope the the number of infected that need care because they won't all arrive at the same time. But (this is where I veer into madness) what if the recommended stay at home regimen was followed so diligently and thoroughly by so many that we ended up with a line that looks like this [imagine a long line that is low in the beginning and still low in the middle but then shoots up like damn rocket at the end] This line represents a huge surge of infections that occur at the end of the cycle; a surge that does to the end of the infection cycle what we feared the first line [ big hump in the middle line ] would do, overwhelm our health care system. L Long, low, surge like a rocket at the end line occurred because so many stayed so completely at home that the result was such a long, slow rate of infections throughout the early and middle stages, so long and so slow that, after two plus months of staying at home and seeing so few get sick, everyone decided it wasn't that big a deal anymore... and all rushed out of their stuffy locked-down homes and partied in the streets like drunken Satyrs. (Don't scoff. It happens every spring in Newfolden). Well, that places the surge we once feared would hit the middle at the end. So, maybe, just maybe, the way it is shaking out, there is just the right amount of people wandering out about and getting sick and just the right number people staying at home and not getting sick to achieve the best outcome. Well, it could be. Maybe. I should be on a committee. I'm glad you asked it because if I had asked it anywhere but in the private email in which I asked the exact same thing two days ago to Jeff, everyone would read it completely differently and I think it deserves good answers. Additionally, discussion has similarly been shut down on so many important considerations that that's how "conspiracy theories" get started (to link to another thread). I've got a list of 9 questions we aren't allowed to ask but should. Some of them have been asked and given snarky, inadequate answers that are supposed to suffice.
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Post by majorminor on Apr 3, 2020 12:14:51 GMT -5
I can never keep this straight, but is THIS an example of irony? www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/mexico-stops-brewing-corona-beer-deemed-non-essential-in-epidemic/ar-BB126lw8?li=BBnbfcLMexico stops brewing Corona beer, deemed non-essential in epidemic Mexico's Grupo Modelo said on Thursday it will temporarily stop brewing Corona beer and other brands exported to 180 countries after its business activities were declared non-essential under a government order aimed at curbing the spread of the coronavirus. The Mexican government this week declared a health emergency and ordered the suspension of non-essential activities. The brewer said in a statement that the suspension will go into place from Sunday. "If the federal government considers it appropriate to issue some clarification confirming beer as an agro-industrial product, at Grupo Modelo we are ready to execute a plan with more than 75% of our staff working from home and at the same time guaranteeing the supply of beer," the statement said. Grupo Modelo operates 11 breweries in Mexico.
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