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Post by John B on Apr 6, 2020 9:12:49 GMT -5
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Post by TKennedy on Apr 6, 2020 10:26:40 GMT -5
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Post by Cornflake on Apr 6, 2020 10:37:50 GMT -5
Terry, the government receives warnings about all kinds of things all the time. One of the Boston marathon bombers had been under scrutiny. The warnings come with various degrees of credibility and urgency. For various reasons, including manpower and money, it's impossible to follow up on every warning about terrorists, meteorites, epidemics and so on. So it's not uncommon after some bad event to find that someone, somewhere had warned about it.
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Post by brucemacneill on Apr 6, 2020 10:52:37 GMT -5
Terry, the government receives warnings about all kinds of things all the time. One of the Boston marathon bombers had been under scrutiny. The warnings come with various degrees of credibility and urgency. For various reasons, including manpower and money, it's impossible to follow up on every warning about terrorists, meteorites, epidemics and so on. So it's not uncommon after some bad event to find that someone, somewhere had warned about it. Yup. I used to get the daily security briefing at work every morning. It was not a great way to start the day. Deciding what needed action and what didn't ruined morning coffee. Now I have mixed emotions for not knowing what's happening around the world but I guess I'm better off not knowing.
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Post by fauxmaha on Apr 6, 2020 11:18:56 GMT -5
Terry, the government receives warnings about all kinds of things all the time. One of the Boston marathon bombers had been under scrutiny. The warnings come with various degrees of credibility and urgency. For various reasons, including manpower and money, it's impossible to follow up on every warning about terrorists, meteorites, epidemics and so on. So it's not uncommon after some bad event to find that someone, somewhere had warned about it. Precisely. And this one is particularly easy to see in hindsight. We've been systematically ignoring the threat of this sort of thing for decades. The problem is "pandemic preparedness" doesn't have a particularly big constituency. And there's no way of knowing where the line between "reasonable preparation level" and "ridiculously over-cautious" lies. And the guys who's job it is to put pressure on the system (Fauci, etal) are themselves walking a line: They want to make enough noise that they get what they think they need, but they know if they make too much noise, they'll just get replaced by someone who isn't so demanding.
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Post by TKennedy on Apr 6, 2020 11:27:04 GMT -5
True. Things are pretty quiet in Douglas County MN. It is always hard to really appreciate the gravity of hardships forced on other folks and prepare properly until it is actually dumped in your own lap.
I think unless we were able to live in at least partial denial of the unpleasant things in life until they were thrust upon us our brains would short out fairly quickly. Perhaps that is why there is such a high rate of depression and melancholy in many great artists/poets/wrters. The way their brains are wired they have to face the dark side to produce memorable works.
Those that came of age in the depression followed by WW II were forced to face the realities of life and had adulthood thrust upon them at a tender age. It resulted in a hell of a generation. I wonder if this event might have a similar effect? My guess is probably not unless things get a lot worse.
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Post by Cornflake on Apr 6, 2020 12:16:42 GMT -5
I've been following the IHME Covid projections, which I learned about on another thread here. They were revised yesterday, presumably to reflect recent data. You might all be interested in checking your own state's projections. covid19.healthdata.org/projectionsThe update for Arizona made things look a little brighter. It appears we have all the hospital beds and ICU beds we'll need and have only a small shortage of ventilators. My impression is that the update made other states look somewhat worse. These projections are no doubt imperfect but I can see how they might help in making decisions about where to allocate scarce resources.
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Post by sidheguitarmichael on Apr 6, 2020 13:02:44 GMT -5
I've been following the IHME Covid projections, which I learned about on another thread here. They were revised yesterday, presumably to reflect recent data. You might all be interested in checking your own state's projections. covid19.healthdata.org/projectionsThe update for Arizona made things look a little brighter. It appears we have all the hospital beds and ICU beds we'll need and have only a small shortage of ventilators. My impression is that the update made other states look somewhat worse. These projections are no doubt imperfect but I can see how they might help in making decisions about where to allocate scarce resources. WA looks pretty good, and I can tell you that E WA is in better shape than the west side, for sure. My guy told me back in early Feb that they were converting a wing and adding hundreds of beds in prep, with the result that our likely bottleneck is wearing out personnel, not running out of ICU beds/gear. So far, we are still well under capacity.
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Post by patrick on Apr 6, 2020 13:36:27 GMT -5
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Post by patrick on Apr 6, 2020 13:58:52 GMT -5
Terry, the government receives warnings about all kinds of things all the time. One of the Boston marathon bombers had been under scrutiny. The warnings come with various degrees of credibility and urgency. For various reasons, including manpower and money, it's impossible to follow up on every warning about terrorists, meteorites, epidemics and so on. So it's not uncommon after some bad event to find that someone, somewhere had warned about it. I don't agree with this. Pandemics are well enough known that we can make some very effective preparations. We know that there is going to be a new influenza pandemic each year. Just as we know that there are going to be earthquakes on the west coast, snowstorms in the Northeast, hurricanes in the western Atlantic and Caribbean. We can make very good preparations for these things. But as a society, we have an attention span of about two weeks after these things. The Obama admin had to deal with a number of pandemics, and actively participated in worldwide surveillance for new infections. When the Trump admin came in, they went through a multi-day simulation of a pandemic, what it could cause, and how to handle it. Trump was bored and Wilbur Ross fell asleep. The CDC had a team stationed in China specifically monitoring for novel viruses. The Trump admin allowed the funding to lapse, and they closed up shop and came home last fall. The Obama admin set up an entire bureaucracy to monitor and warn and plan for pandemics. John Bolton dismantled it, moved the responsibilities into unrelated offices, then failed to fill them. Combined with Trump's own refusal to take this seriously, from his first intelligence briefing on COVID-19 in mid-January until mid-march, and you have the current disaster.
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Post by patrick on Apr 6, 2020 14:00:28 GMT -5
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Post by epaul on Apr 6, 2020 14:07:52 GMT -5
I have doubts about the IHME data. In one week they shot ND from one of the best to one of the worst Covid Ready states.
- According the ND's reporting data, as of April 7 there have been 207 reported cases of Covid 19 in the state (we just passed 200 yesterday).
- According to this most recent IHME projection ND should require 563 hospital beds on this date for its hospitalized Covid patients (207 reported, most of whom are recuperating at home).
Concerning the IHME subsequent "peak" projections, while there is no actual data to prove them wrong (as there is with their past and current projections) the IHME projections are showing ND to have a peak case load similar to neighboring Minnesota, a state that has nearly ten times the population (the two states are following nearly identical abatement procedures). Something is clearly f*cked up with their numbers.
-According to IHME North Dakota has 160 ventilators available. According to North Dakota, they have 408.
Something is out of whack with IHME's ND projections, a small population state with limited numbers to base projections on.
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Post by Cornflake on Apr 6, 2020 14:46:13 GMT -5
It looks as if North Dakota had a steep jump in the last few days before the projections were updated. I don't know whether that explains it, Paul.
PS: The site says that North Dakota doesn't have a stay-at-home order. Minnesota does. That could be a factor.
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Post by epaul on Apr 6, 2020 15:23:05 GMT -5
Well, on April 4th, the IHME chart shows 20 reported deaths in ND. A jump from 3 reported deaths on April 3. These numbers are stated by IHME to be officially reported deaths , not projections. IHME's projected ND death total for today is 41,
Today's actual Covid 19 official death total in North Dakota is 3.
North Dakota categorically did not jump from 3 deaths on April 3 to 20 deaths on April 4. North Dakota went from 2 deaths on April 3 to 2 deaths on April 4.
It is clear IHME plugged in a wrong number, a way wrong number, which threw everything else absurdly off.
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Post by epaul on Apr 6, 2020 15:34:54 GMT -5
It looks like someone at IHME typed in 20 instead of 2 when entering the April 4th death total in ND. What should have been 2 to 2 became 2 to 20. Which explains everything else.
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Post by epaul on Apr 6, 2020 15:37:17 GMT -5
I'm checking now to see if I'm dead or not. If I am, will report it. Numbers matter.
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Post by epaul on Apr 6, 2020 15:48:38 GMT -5
Minnesota calls it "Shelter at Home". North Dakota says "Stay at Home". Both states closed schools, bars, and restaurants within a day of each other. Everything else is a recommendation and is more or less generally followed. Both have quarantines established for those who enter the state from 'proscribed' areas.
Non-essential businesses are at the exact same degree of closure in both states and the definition of what businesses can be considered essential is very fluid in both states (as it is in most states with stay at home recommendations in place). I live in a border city and go back and forth between Grand Forks and East Grand Forks regularly. There isn't a whit of a difference between the two states in any Corvid-abatement practice I can determine.
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Post by sidheguitarmichael on Apr 6, 2020 16:05:55 GMT -5
Edit; double
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Post by sidheguitarmichael on Apr 6, 2020 16:06:45 GMT -5
The Obama admin had to deal with a number of pandemics, and actively participated in worldwide surveillance for new infections. When the Trump admin came in, they went through a multi-day simulation of a pandemic, what it could cause, and how to handle it. Trump was bored and Wilbur Ross fell asleep. The CDC had a team stationed in China specifically monitoring for novel viruses. The Trump admin allowed the funding to lapse, and they closed up shop and came home last fall. The Obama admin set up an entire bureaucracy to monitor and warn and plan for pandemics. John Bolton dismantled it, moved the responsibilities into unrelated offices, then failed to fill them. Combined with Trump's own refusal to take this seriously, from his first intelligence briefing on COVID-19 in mid-January until mid-march, and you have the current disaster. While there isn't much to disagree with there, intellectual honesty requires noting that the Fed Gov depleted our emergency reserves of PPE (masks, etc) over the ‘09 h1n1 pandemic, and the admin at the time couldn’t be bothered to replenish what they used, effectively kicking the can down the road for the next time. Nobody has clean hands on this; funding preparedness and engaging in prudence is seldom sexy and popular.
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Post by millring on Apr 6, 2020 16:11:34 GMT -5
I think we should start pronouncing it "KUH-VY-DEE-NINETEEN" and stop acting like it's a word instead of an acronymn.
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