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Post by epaul on Apr 6, 2020 16:14:22 GMT -5
17 people did not die on April 4th as stated by IHME's data. 3 people have died to date (April 6).
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Post by TKennedy on Apr 6, 2020 16:34:39 GMT -5
Terry, the government receives warnings about all kinds of things all the time. One of the Boston marathon bombers had been under scrutiny. The warnings come with various degrees of credibility and urgency. For various reasons, including manpower and money, it's impossible to follow up on every warning about terrorists, meteorites, epidemics and so on. So it's not uncommon after some bad event to find that someone, somewhere had warned about it. I don't agree with this. Pandemics are well enough known that we can make some very effective preparations. We know that there is going to be a new influenza pandemic each year. Just as we know that there are going to be earthquakes on the west coast, snowstorms in the Northeast, hurricanes in the western Atlantic and Caribbean. We can make very good preparations for these things. But as a society, we have an attention span of about two weeks after these things. The Obama admin had to deal with a number of pandemics, and actively participated in worldwide surveillance for new infections. When the Trump admin came in, they went through a multi-day simulation of a pandemic, what it could cause, and how to handle it. Trump was bored and Wilbur Ross fell asleep. The CDC had a team stationed in China specifically monitoring for novel viruses. The Trump admin allowed the funding to lapse, and they closed up shop and came home last fall. The Obama admin set up an entire bureaucracy to monitor and warn and plan for pandemics. John Bolton dismantled it, moved the responsibilities into unrelated offices, then failed to fill them. Combined with Trump's own refusal to take this seriously, from his first intelligence briefing on COVID-19 in mid-January until mid-march, and you have the current disaster. I didn't know all that. Heard scattered references to some of it but never followed up with any serious reading on the stories. Thanks!
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Post by Cornflake on Apr 6, 2020 16:45:28 GMT -5
I didn't know all that either.
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Post by TKennedy on Apr 6, 2020 16:50:53 GMT -5
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Post by Marshall on Apr 6, 2020 19:06:54 GMT -5
The other shoe is dropping. I just heard the food service division my SIL works for (colleges, schools, sports venues, etc), had to furlough 9,00 people. They'll all get health benefits for the next 3 months. But it's going to be tough.
The daughter of a good friend manages one bar and works part-time in another. She's at home now. Her boyfriend broke up with her and moved out (along with his 50% of the rent in her apartment.)
There's real hardship coming down the pipe.
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Post by patrick on Apr 6, 2020 19:33:07 GMT -5
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Post by david on Apr 6, 2020 20:10:45 GMT -5
17 people did not die on April 4th as stated by IHME's data. 3 people have died to date (April 6). Been tryin' on some new outfits Paul? Did you get your panties in a twist?
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Post by patrick on Apr 6, 2020 20:40:31 GMT -5
"Osama bin Laden spent 5 years in seclusion with 3 wives ... I’m beginning to wonder if he called the Seals in himself. "
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Post by james on Apr 6, 2020 20:40:40 GMT -5
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Post by jdd2 on Apr 6, 2020 21:38:47 GMT -5
"Osama bin Laden spent 5 years in seclusion with 3 wives ... I’m beginning to wonder if he called the Seals in himself. " didn't they also find a lot of porn?
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Post by patrick on Apr 7, 2020 0:11:28 GMT -5
17 people did not die on April 4th as stated by IHME's data. 3 people have died to date (April 6). Been tryin' on some new outfits Paul? Did you get your panties in a twist? Paul has the newest technology,twist-free panties. Don't ask how I know this.
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Post by TKennedy on Apr 7, 2020 8:58:12 GMT -5
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Post by epaul on Apr 7, 2020 9:37:07 GMT -5
As per usual, it's safest to reside in the middle.
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Post by Cornflake on Apr 7, 2020 11:07:12 GMT -5
From USA Today via Google News:
"The majority of New York’s more than 4,700 deaths due to coronavirus were among men, and 86% of all deaths were among people who had underlying illnesses, such as hypertension and diabetes, new state data shows....
Of the 4,758 deaths in New York since the first on March 14, 61% were men and 39% were women, the state Department of Health reportedon its new data portal.
In addition, 63% of the deaths were among those age 70 and older, while 7% of the cases were those 49 and younger.
And 4,089 of those who died had at least one other chronic disease, the records showed:
The leading underlying illness was hypertension, which showed up in 55% of the deaths. Next was diabetes, which was diagnosed in 1,755 deaths, or about 37% of the cases. Other top illnesses found in those who died from coronavirus were hyperlipidemia; coronary artery disease; renal disease and dementia."
I'm not sure what this tells us. I don't have any figures handy but I suspect that a fairly high proportion of people over 65 have one or more of those problems. The correlation doesn't necessarily mean causation.
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Post by John B on Apr 7, 2020 15:02:55 GMT -5
An Illinois mayor who ordered a crackdown on people violating stay-at-home orders got what he wanted—unfortunately for his wife. In a Facebook post, Alton Mayor Brant Walker said his wife was among those found at a “social gathering” at a downtown bar that flouted coronavirus restrictions at 1 a.m. Sunday. “I instructed the Police Chief to treat her as he would any citizen violating the ‘Stay At Home’ order and to ensure that she received no special treatment,” Walker wrote. “My wife is an adult capable of making her own decisions, and in this instance she exhibited a stunning lack of judgement.” Police said everyone who was at the bar will be charged with reckless conduct. www.thedailybeast.com/alton-illinois-mayor-brant-walker-orders-coronavirus-crackdown-and-cops-find-his-wife-at-party?ref=home
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Post by Chesapeake on Apr 7, 2020 15:47:51 GMT -5
Mrs. Walker will be confined to the county jail. Mr. Walker will be confined to the doghouse.
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Post by jdd2 on Apr 7, 2020 15:52:44 GMT -5
Bye, bye, acting navy secretary: (no need to reprint his "stupid" speech)
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Post by Cornflake on Apr 8, 2020 14:08:19 GMT -5
epaul, the IMHE projections were updated today and I think they corrected the numbers for North Dakota. When you speak, people listen.
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Post by epaul on Apr 8, 2020 17:33:38 GMT -5
The correction was limited one. They fixed one absurdly wrong plugged-in number when they were called on it. Leaving a number of other screwups in data, process, and conclusion still in place. I know what they are and could explain what they are, but I sense no one cares and I have panties to fold.
But, I will say unequivocally that ND is not going to go from 4 deaths today to IHME's projected 27 by Friday, 45 by Sunday, and 169 in a week. At least in North Dakota's case, by observable result, it is clear that the IHME's data collection and methodology is flawed and they don't appear to be paying any attention to the absurd projections their process has led them to.
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Post by millring on Apr 8, 2020 18:16:03 GMT -5
And in low population States I have to wonder if there isn't a point at which the spread is too slow.
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