|
Post by majorminor on Apr 17, 2020 14:05:08 GMT -5
There has been a team from the CDC poking around North Dakota the last couple days. Apparently we are the Covid-19 abatement Super Star. 9 deaths to date opposed to the projection as recently as ten days ago of well over 70. In the statistical universe, it is true that the smaller the surveyed population, the greater the opportunity for anomalies to occur, but regardless, a CDC team was here and they are interested in what is going on in ND (and no, we aren't hiding bodies in grain bins, the state is smack in the middle of average monthly death rates). Yet, ND was scolded by the Star Tribune editorial board and Gov. Walz for being virus-careless and not up to their snuff. Hmmpf! Have you considered the possibility that even the viruses don’t want to live there? 😀
|
|
|
Post by billhammond on Apr 17, 2020 14:48:26 GMT -5
There has been a team from the CDC poking around North Dakota the last couple days. Apparently we are the Covid-19 abatement Super Star. 9 deaths to date opposed to the projection as recently as ten days ago of well over 70. In the statistical universe, it is true that the smaller the surveyed population, the greater the opportunity for anomalies to occur, but regardless, a CDC team was here and they are interested in what is going on in ND (and no, we aren't hiding bodies in grain bins, the state is smack in the middle of average monthly death rates). Yet, ND was scolded by the Star Tribune editorial board and Gov. Walz for being virus-careless and not up to their snuff. Hmmpf! Read the editorial
|
|
|
Post by Cosmic Wonder on Apr 17, 2020 14:49:26 GMT -5
There has been a team from the CDC poking around North Dakota the last couple days. Apparently we are the Covid-19 abatement Super Star. 9 deaths to date opposed to the projection as recently as ten days ago of well over 70. In the statistical universe, it is true that the smaller the surveyed population, the greater the opportunity for anomalies to occur, but regardless, a CDC team was here and they are interested in what is going on in ND (and no, we aren't hiding bodies in grain bins, the state is smack in the middle of average monthly death rates). Yet, ND was scolded by the Star Tribune editorial board and Gov. Walz for being virus-careless and not up to their snuff. Hmmpf! Have you considered the possibility that even the viruses don’t want to live there? 😀 I nominate this for post of the year! Mike
|
|
|
Post by Cornflake on Apr 17, 2020 15:56:24 GMT -5
Wow. IMHE projections were updated today. Every place I've looked at improved and Arizona improved a lot. They'd been projecting peak hospital usage for the end of April and now they're projecting that we already had it on April 5th. A total of 267 total deaths are now projected for the state.
Some will say we overreacted, some will say social distancing paid off. I'm just glad to see a brighter outlook.
|
|
|
Post by james on Apr 17, 2020 16:24:16 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by Cosmic Wonder on Apr 17, 2020 17:07:27 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by epaul on Apr 17, 2020 17:58:23 GMT -5
Not good, but not bad either.
The first number is 2%. That's how many of the patients, so far, tested as recovered later tested positive for the virus. What is the sampling error with South Korea's test kits? What are the percentages of false positives? I don't know, but the CDC had concerns with its accuracy, one of many reasons they went ahead with their own subsequently botched design. The test undoubtedly has a certain percentage of false positives. Plus, as the story suggests, the test appears to be picking up dead virus particles, further increasing the false positive number.
The more telling number is 63, that's the number of 7,829 people that have recovered that are currently experiencing mild symptoms. That means only .7% of the people thought to be recovered are showing a mild relapse (mild is good). If that holds, and mild holds, and the number of people who developed only a partial immunity after the first exposure is under 1%, even 2 or 3%, that would be good news.
All numbers will change as more is known and as time elapses for time is the only thing that will tell us how long and to what extent any immunity lasts. What we know of the virsues we are aware of that are closest to Covid-19 is encouraging as regards the degree and extent of immunity people will develop to this disease. Time will tell, but there is no reason yet to expect the news to be bad.
What we come to learn about Covid 19 will emerge in partial drops and dribbles. The immunity picture is just starting to develop. There is a stage when even a Bauman pot looks like an ugly mess, but early is not the end.
|
|
|
COVID 19
Apr 17, 2020 18:40:54 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by aquaduct on Apr 17, 2020 18:40:54 GMT -5
So now that we've learned so much, what's the best guess at how many Americans will die this year?
I'm still in for 2.85 million or so.
|
|
|
Post by jdd2 on Apr 17, 2020 18:47:09 GMT -5
There has been a team from the CDC poking around North Dakota the last couple days. Apparently we are the Covid-19 abatement Super Star. 9 deaths to date opposed to the projection as recently as ten days ago of well over 70. In the statistical universe, it is true that the smaller the surveyed population, the greater the opportunity for anomalies to occur, but regardless, a CDC team was here and they are interested in what is going on in ND (and no, we aren't hiding bodies in grain bins, the state is smack in the middle of average monthly death rates). Yet, ND was scolded by the Star Tribune editorial board and Gov. Walz for being virus-careless and not up to their snuff. Hmmpf! Have you considered the possibility that even the viruses don’t want to live there? 😀 OTOH, the virus doesn't seem to have no trouble living in south dakota.
|
|
|
Post by james on Apr 17, 2020 22:52:38 GMT -5
|
|
|
COVID 19
Apr 17, 2020 23:22:48 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by aquaduct on Apr 17, 2020 23:22:48 GMT -5
I'm still betting on 2.85 million deaths at the end of the year. The rest of the amateur picking of the fly shit from the pepper is needless hype to scare the gullible into compliance
|
|
|
Post by epaul on Apr 18, 2020 0:48:37 GMT -5
There is some confusion in the various accounts of "undercounting" as to how the flu death counts are obtained. An "official" test that determines the presence of the virus is not necessary or needed to determine that a death was due to the Covid-19 virus.
The below is from the CDC Vital Statistics Reporting Guide (a guide that all doctors, coroners, morticians, emergency personal would or should be aware of):
(Italics mine)
A recent NT Times article examined the likely causes for the "over-deaths" that occurred in New York City over the most recent 30-day period. [I am going to round off the numbers as the article isn't in front me at the moment, but I am damn close, double damn close.)
The expected number of deaths for the examined period in NYC would be (roughly) 5,000. 10,000 (roughly) was the number of deaths that actually occurred. Of the 5,000 extra deaths (over the expected), 3,500 could be attributed to Covid-19, officially.
The Times examined possible causes that would account for the 'un-accounted for' 1,500.
One possible cause would be an under-count of the "official" flu deaths. The Times interviewed virus experts and local medical authorities (coroners, undertakers, emergency personnel). The conclusion was there was likely some under counting but that under counting was not likely to be the major contributor to the "extra deaths".
The most likely culprit to the 'greater than expected death numbers' was what they referred to as "secondary cause flu deaths", people that didn't die from the flu itself but likely died because of the flu's effect on their behavior and their medical options.
(i.e., a whole bunch of extra heart attacks and strokes etc. because of 1) the inability to seek proper and timely medical care due to over-loaded hospitals or fear of going to a virus-laden hospital and 2) extra heart attacks due to flu-related stress. IN GENERAL, people with non-flu medical issues did not receive or seek medical treatment)
|
|
|
Post by epaul on Apr 18, 2020 0:59:05 GMT -5
(while very early Covid-19 deaths may have been attributed to pneumonia, any untested pneumonia death now is likely attributed to Covid-19. Face blue? It's Covid.)
|
|
|
Post by jdd2 on Apr 18, 2020 1:28:27 GMT -5
I'm not defending china on its reporting, but the mushiness that you're describing does mean that US numbers are also 'off'. There's so little testing that whether it's flu or -19 is being determined by people (experts) looking at some numbers and guesstimating what was flu or this new virus. And on the death certificates, base it on 'sound medical judgement'.
If this had originated in the US, and reporting deaths was being handled like that, could the US have effectively warned other countries what was coming?
The criticism of china, probably fair, is that those evil commies were hiding the reality of it all. And that assumes that they had a handle on it.
At least a better grip on it than the US seems to have.
|
|
|
COVID 19
Apr 18, 2020 7:28:03 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by aquaduct on Apr 18, 2020 7:28:03 GMT -5
I'm not defending china on its reporting, but the mushiness that you're describing does mean that US numbers are also 'off'. There's so little testing that whether it's flu or -19 is being determined by people (experts) looking at some numbers and guesstimating what was flu or this new virus. And on the death certificates, base it on 'sound medical judgement'. If this had originated in the US, and reporting deaths was being handled like that, could the US have effectively warned other countries what was coming? The criticism of china, probably fair, is that those evil commies were hiding the reality of it all. And that assumes that they had a handle on it. At least a better grip on it than the US seems to have. That's probably true. But to go back to epaul's speculation about actual death count from COVID19, China has an inherent advantage. They can always count any COVID19 death as a bullet through the brain in some obscure reeducation camp and simply not report it at all. In PR wars, it's always good to have options.
|
|
|
Post by james on Apr 18, 2020 9:53:35 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by jdd2 on Apr 18, 2020 10:01:24 GMT -5
How about that.
|
|
|
Post by epaul on Apr 18, 2020 11:03:19 GMT -5
I'm not defending china on its reporting, but the mushiness that you're describing does mean that US numbers are also 'off'. There's so little testing that whether it's flu or -19 is being determined by people (experts) looking at some numbers and guesstimating what was flu or this new virus. And on the death certificates, base it on 'sound medical judgement'. If this had originated in the US, and reporting deaths was being handled like that, could the US have effectively warned other countries what was coming? The criticism of china, probably fair, is that those evil commies were hiding the reality of it all. And that assumes that they had a handle on it. At least a better grip on it than the US seems to have. Mushiness? Do you have any idea of what you are talking about? Why would you think any other country has different protocols? Including Japan. Speaking of Japan, at least in the U.S. patients requiring emergency care aren't being driven around for hours trying to find a hospital that will admit them due to a shortage of facilities, as they are in Japan, for instance. www.cnbc.com/2020/04/18/new-wave-of-infections-threatens-to-collapse-japan-hospitals.htmlThe U.S. accounting of its fatality numbers is as accurate as any. And its death rate due to this pandemic is among the lowest. (and for the impassioned idiots at CNN, it is "rate" that matters, not gross numbers but numbers that account for respective populations)
|
|
|
Post by aquaduct on Apr 18, 2020 11:10:00 GMT -5
Just saw a picture from one of these state protests and there was a woman there with a sign that said, "My Body, My Choice".
That made my day.
|
|
|
Post by james on Apr 18, 2020 11:21:53 GMT -5
I think that's what typhoid Mary used to say.
|
|