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COVID 19
Apr 18, 2020 11:27:45 GMT -5
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Post by aquaduct on Apr 18, 2020 11:27:45 GMT -5
I think that's what typhoid Mary used to say. I wonder if that's where modern abortion advocates got it.
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Post by Chesapeake on Apr 18, 2020 12:02:41 GMT -5
Wow. IMHE projections were updated today. Every place I've looked at improved and Arizona improved a lot. They'd been projecting peak hospital usage for the end of April and now they're projecting that we already had it on April 5th. A total of 267 total deaths are now projected for the state. Some will say we overreacted, some will say social distancing paid off. I'm just glad to see a brighter outlook. Weather forecasters are well acquainted with this phenomenon. If they make a dire prediction, based on their modeling, and it doesn't come to pass, they're accused of crying wolf. If unpredicted devastation breaks out, they catch hell for not predicting it.
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COVID 19
Apr 18, 2020 14:05:15 GMT -5
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Post by aquaduct on Apr 18, 2020 14:05:15 GMT -5
Wow. IMHE projections were updated today. Every place I've looked at improved and Arizona improved a lot. They'd been projecting peak hospital usage for the end of April and now they're projecting that we already had it on April 5th. A total of 267 total deaths are now projected for the state. Some will say we overreacted, some will say social distancing paid off. I'm just glad to see a brighter outlook. Weather forecasters are well acquainted with this phenomenon. If they make a dire prediction, based on their modeling, and it doesn't come to pass, they're accused of crying wolf. If unpredicted devastation breaks out, they catch hell for not predicting it. Yeah but bad weather forecasts rarely kill people. Anybody who knows something about statistics knows that these forecasts are wrong by definition. There's simply no mathematical validity to them whatsoever. And it's not like we didn't know that. I posted a link to a guy who pretty much showed that they had to be seriously overblown. Somebody helpfully pointed out that the guy's a Nazi or something, living in Jerusalem no less. Like that fucking proves anything. So now that these dickheads have shut down the economy and put something like 22 million people out of work and tossing in the wind, they come back and revise their projections down and say, "good thing we did that. See how many lives we saved?" Fuckers ought to be shot. Or drawn and quartered. Or shot and then drawn and quartered. At a minimum they should be sent to prison like Bernie Madoff for a goddamned Ponzi scheme that dwarfs his.
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Post by epaul on Apr 18, 2020 14:09:31 GMT -5
Anyway, before it got ambushed for some reason, my post last night was intended to build some confidence in the general accuracy of our official CDC fatality numbers; numbers which I do believe are reliable, if not perfectly accurate; numbers that have been derived by reliable and well-honed reckoning. I did so because of this: www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01095-0There are numerous indications that the number of people who have been infected with Covid-19 is far higher than previously thought. A Santa Clara study conducted by Stanford University put the number of infected (those showing the presence of anti-bodies) as approximately 85 times higher than had been previously held to be the case. Read the link for more examples. If this holds, it is Good News. If the fatality numbers are reasonably close to right while the numbers of those who had been infected over the same time frame rises significantly, that reduces the percentage of fatalities among those infected, perhaps dramatically, perhaps down to between 1-2% (a range that is looking increasingly as if it may be the case and, if so, isn't significantly worse than other more common flus.) My intent here is not to ignore the deep pain of those who have lost near and dear, it is not to pin a medal to Trump's chest and cheer the back to workers, it is not to take a poke at any one or any country, it is not partisan skulduggery of any persuasion, it is only meant to sound a small optimistic note in what has been a sour and depressing melody. Maybe, just maybe, this flu won't be as dire as feared and maybe, just maybe, the remainder of our wretched lives won't be as completely fucked because of it. Or maybe they will. But, for remainder of this page, there may be some hope kindled... and every moment counts in a too short life that can be snuffed out capriciously at any moment. Feel better?
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COVID 19
Apr 18, 2020 16:32:55 GMT -5
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Post by majorminor on Apr 18, 2020 16:32:55 GMT -5
You are my favorite Norwegian
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Dub
Administrator
I'm gettin' so the past is the only thing I can remember.
Posts: 20,337
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Post by Dub on Apr 18, 2020 16:35:42 GMT -5
You are my favorite Norwegian He’ll soon be appearing on boxes of Land O Lakes butter.
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Post by majorminor on Apr 18, 2020 16:41:56 GMT -5
You are my favorite Norwegian He’ll soon be appearing on boxes of Land O Lakes butter. All of him or just the dirty parts? And is Norwegian a slur? Should it be Fjordpersons?
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Post by Chesapeake on Apr 18, 2020 16:50:32 GMT -5
Master of the obvious comment here. Hospitalizations are easily measured, but I don't think we can rue out a dramatic uptick in infection rates when testing is more widespread.
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COVID 19
Apr 18, 2020 17:02:30 GMT -5
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Post by TKennedy on Apr 18, 2020 17:02:30 GMT -5
I was out and about on the first nice spring weekend we have had. Grocery, hardware, and liquor stores dutifully wearing my mask, carrying my little bottle of sanitizer, and trying to distance.
To my surprise the volume of traffic and activity in the stores was about normal with few wearing masks and fairly lax observation of distancing. None of the store employees had masks. Pretty relaxed scene.
Our county has had only one known case and that was several weeks ago so there is a lot of denial. Soon we will have a massive influx of lake home owners. Pretty unlikely they will self quarantine.
I expect a little hot spot here in a few weeks if this thing is as contagious as advertised.
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Post by Cornflake on Apr 18, 2020 17:28:00 GMT -5
epaul, that would indeed be very good news. Thanks.
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Post by jdd2 on Apr 18, 2020 18:05:30 GMT -5
Anyway, before it got ambushed for some reason, my post last night was intended to build some confidence in the general accuracy of our official CDC fatality numbers; numbers which I do believe are reliable, if not perfectly accurate; numbers that have been derived by reliable and well-honed reckoning. I did so because of this: www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01095-0There are numerous indications that the number of people who have been infected with Covid-19 is far higher than previously thought. A Santa Clara study conducted by Stanford University put the number of infected (those showing the presence of anti-bodies) as approximately 85 times higher than had been previously held to be the case. Read the link for more examples. (<for more mushiness)If this holds, it is Good News. If the fatality numbers are reasonably close to right while the numbers of those who had been infected over the same time frame rises significantly, that reduces the percentage of fatalities among those infected, perhaps dramatically, perhaps down to between 1-2% (a range that is looking increasingly as if it may be the case and, if so, isn't significantly worse than other more common flus.) My intent here is not to ignore the deep pain of those who have lost near and dear, it is not to pin a medal to Trump's chest and cheer the back to workers, it is not to take a poke at any one or any country, it is not partisan skulduggery of any persuasion, it is only meant to sound a small optimistic note in what has been a sour and depressing melody. Maybe, just maybe, this flu won't be as dire as feared and maybe, just maybe, the remainder of our wretched lives won't be as completely fucked because of it. Or maybe they will. But, for remainder of this page, there may be some hope kindled... and every moment counts in a too short life that can be snuffed out capriciously at any moment. Feel better? Optimism? Sure, go for it. But there's a pretty fair amount of hypothesizing guessing there, and I'd again offer that the US numbers are--for different reasons--just as much smoke and mirrors as any criticism of china's numbers (or anywhere else, and I'd certainly include japan there). There are a few places that do have reliable numbers--korea and taiwan are the prom queens there. Given the way that this is being "assessed"/guesstimated in the US, had this originated in the there (or anywhere else with a similar method of looking at public health), the advance warning to other countries about how serious -19 was would be seriously lacking. Compound that with the early bumbles of "we've got it under control" and "there are only a few cases" (denial), and I think the shitshow beneficial information flow would be worse than what came out of china--even now the US cannot even tell itself what is going on. Japan's been in denial, too--no doubt about that--wanting to save the olympics this summer. The fact that the number of cases somehow shot up only after that cancelation is obvious to everyone. And still very likely under-reported, there are now ~10k cases here and over 150 dead. (Another local tidbit: ambulance rides are free.)
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Post by Marshall on Apr 18, 2020 19:20:06 GMT -5
You are my favorite Norwegian He’ll soon be appearing on boxes of Land O Lakes butter. Do not under any circumstance show his knees ! ! ! ( for the love of everything decent)
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Post by aquaduct on Apr 18, 2020 20:06:28 GMT -5
Master of the obvious comment here. Hospitalizations are easily measured, but I don't think we can rue out a dramatic uptick in infection rates when testing is more widespread. That would be great news. Increasing the denominator means the actual fatality rate decreases as confirmed infections go up. Again, what exactly did we shut down for?
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Post by aquaduct on Apr 18, 2020 20:45:18 GMT -5
Frankly, no. I've lost my job and gone bankrupt with a wife and 2 kids depending on me. I know how incredibly devestating that is on a very personal level. I've studied it a bit. It's particularly brutal for men. While women have been liberated in our society, men are still stuck with being largely bread winners. Women can walk in and out of careers over the years but men will be looked at cross wise for any employment gap. It's just not acceptable in polite society to not be a breadwinner if you're male. And males start with something like 8 times the suicide rate of females and it goes up to something like 30 times by the time they get to our age and start losing thier value to society. No, while I'm in good shape this time through the wringer, my heart literally bleeds for the little guy like Millring and his wife who are facing being crushed by this shit. And there's currently something like 22 million folks like him who are facing this artificially generated crap. This week at least. The studies you refer to aren't cute. They aren't reassuring. Assholes have been lying to us with biblical fire and brimstone consequences. And privileged jackasses tut tut us about being responsible and staying home. Fuck that shit. I haven't stopped working or shopping or cutting my grass and thank God they haven't been able to force me to. Or my family. Wife, daughter, and daughter's fiance continue to go to work every day. My daughter works in Child Protective Services over on the other side of the mountain and gets to visit all kinds of sketchy places all day long. Every fucking day. And we're all still standing. And it never had to happen. But then again when the history of this is written and the kudos are handed out, the dead won't be able to speak. No, I ain't feeling better about nothing. Quite the opposite.
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Post by Cornflake on Apr 18, 2020 21:36:37 GMT -5
New York has 13,362 deaths to date but the hideous death rate is finally declining. Keep Howard and his family in mind.
A friend reported today that his grandmother had died of the virus. Knock on wood, no one I know has yet died from it but a number of friends have lost close friends or loved ones. One friend has a loved one in intensive care.
Healthcare workers are doing a remarkable job at great risk. It still appears that we'll lose more people to this than to the Vietnam War.
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Post by Cornflake on Apr 18, 2020 22:26:07 GMT -5
Interesting and reassuring in light of the recent news.
"New polling from Pew Research Center suggests that Americans are more likely to side with the experts than with Trump. By a 2-to-1 margin, they are more concerned that distancing measures will be rescinded too quickly than too slowly. There’s a partisan split on the question, but not as big as you might think. Among conservative Republicans, views are about split. Among moderate Republicans, a large majority is more worried about moving too quickly than too slowly."
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Post by Marshall on Apr 19, 2020 0:22:06 GMT -5
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Post by billhammond on Apr 19, 2020 12:29:40 GMT -5
E-paul, stay safe!
After weeks of avoiding an exponential jump in COVID-19 cases, North Dakota appears to have its first significant flare-up.
Gov. Doug Burgum announced Saturday that 110 people associated with a Grand Forks wind turbine manufacturing plant have tested positive for the illness in the last week. Sixty-six of the 90 new cases announced Saturday are tied to the outbreak at the LM Wind Power facility.
Of the positive tests among workers at the plant and their close contacts, 102 are North Dakota residents and eight live across the border in Minnesota, Burgum said. Only one person tied to the plant has been hospitalized so far.
A total of 426 tests were performed Thursday on workers and close contacts identified by health officials. The majority of the tests were administered by health officials in a drive-thru setting, and Burgum said officials are planning to do another round of mass testing in the state’s third largest city next week. The results of about 50 of the tests taken Thursday have not yet been shared publicly.
Burgum also announced an order Saturday from State Health Officer Mylynn Tufte that says all 880 employees of the plant must self-quarantine in their homes for 14 days or risk facing Class B misdemeanor charges. The order does not apply to family members or housemates of the workers, but Burgum strongly encouraged them not to leave their homes.
“If (LM workers and people with whom they’ve shared close contact) can stay out of the community, then we have an opportunity to slow down the spread (of the virus) and keep people safe, particularly the elderly and those with underlying health conditions,” Burgum said.
GE, which owns the plant, will keep the facility closed for a minimum of two weeks and do a deep cleaning of all exposed surfaces, Burgum said. The company has committed to paying the workers during the 14-day closure, Burgum said.
Speaking over the phone at Burgum’s Saturday press conference, Grand Forks Mayor Michael Brown said officials expect to see more cases tied to the plant and noted that there will likely be “a prolonged battle” against the illness.
Dr. Steven Weiser, the president of Altru Health System, said Saturday he believes the city’s health care system will be capable of withstanding the surge in cases. If needed, Altru can ramp up hospital capacity to accommodate 292 patients in regular hospital beds and 33 patients in intensive-care beds, Weiser said. The health care company also has a stock of 88 ventilators, which are often needed to save the lives of COVID-19 patients in critical condition. Only about 5% of COVID-19 patients become critically ill, Weiser said.
Burgum noted that patients can be sent to nearby Fargo if Grand Forks’ hospitals are overwhelmed by the outbreak.
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Post by epaul on Apr 19, 2020 13:19:29 GMT -5
We're up at the farm at for the weekend. Maybe we'll stay for a few more days. If Gus can get by with only one computer for a while instead of three or four, that is.
But none of us have been out and about in stores or public-occupied spaces for a little over a month. Not at all. And we don't intend to until Gov. Burgam gives the all clear sign. We don't have to, we don't need to, so we won't. (personally, I am fine with hermithood, almost disconcertedly so).
Minnesota and South Dakota and now North Dakota have had factory-related virus breakouts that infected large groups of workers (MN And SD meatpacking and ND wind turbine factory).
Two lessons are clear:
1) PPE equipment needs to be available for factory workers.
2) We should have stuck with coal, dammit!
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Post by millring on Apr 19, 2020 14:19:51 GMT -5
Is the greater New York metropolitan area the United States' canary in the mineshaft, or is it an anomaly that is unlikely to be reproduced anywhere else in the country?
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