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Post by Cornflake on Apr 21, 2020 12:25:25 GMT -5
Interesting responses. I'd been assuming that I was seeing a darker future than most people were. Apparently not.
Jeff, I don't think I'm underestimating the problems you describe. I think there's a good chance of solving them. We've dealt with smaller but similar problems in the past. I don't see any evidence that anyone in government, in either party, is focused on all this. Hope I'm wrong.
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Post by Marshall on Apr 21, 2020 12:32:15 GMT -5
With all this grimness, we've got to open up the economy much more come May. MUCH more. I don't think it's too late to save the economy. But something's gotta give soon.
As Jeff pointed out last week, the purpose of all this was to flatten the curve; so the healthcare system would have a better chance to handle the burden coming their way. It was not to totally eliminate the pathogen (sure would be nice, but this is reality, people).
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Post by Marshall on Apr 21, 2020 12:36:26 GMT -5
The economy recovered from 911. The economy recovered from the Financial Crisis. It can be done with this. But in those cases stimulus was used to put people back to work. So far all action has been to shut things down. We gotta find a way to balance risk/reward and get things moving again.
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Post by theevan on Apr 21, 2020 12:53:12 GMT -5
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Post by theevan on Apr 21, 2020 12:55:56 GMT -5
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Post by millring on Apr 21, 2020 12:59:21 GMT -5
A prominent politician folks here said that though she wasn't their favorite, they would nevertheless gladly vote for posted a celebratory tweet at the collapse of the oil industry yesterday.
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Post by majorminor on Apr 21, 2020 13:08:46 GMT -5
With all this grimness, we've got to open up the economy much more come May. MUCH more. I don't think it's too late to save the economy. But something's gotta give soon. Keep in mind I make doors for a living but yeah the collective we need to start feeling like the economy is going to begin opening back up in some form or fashion in the next 30 -60 days or we are going to be screwed IMO. Interestingly all the building trades people and GC's I talk to are "on track for a banner year" and are currently blowing and going. Same for the shop here. So based on my world view I don't think we are past the point of no return as pertains to our near term economy. Yet. Hate to say it but after all the drama this whole thing is going to boil down to "hold my beer" because there is no other option. We are going to open the economy back up fairly soon and let the chips fall where they may would be my guess.
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Post by millring on Apr 21, 2020 13:15:47 GMT -5
With all this grimness, we've got to open up the economy much more come May. MUCH more. I don't think it's too late to save the economy. But something's gotta give soon. Keep in mind I make doors for a living but yeah the collective we need to start feeling like the economy is going to begin opening back up in some form or fashion in the next 30 -60 days or we are going to be screwed IMO. Interestingly all the building trades people and GC's I talk to are "on track for a banner year" and are currently blowing and going. Same for the shop here. So based on my world view I don't think we are past the point of no return as pertains to our near term economy. Yet. Hate to say it but after all the drama this whole thing is going to boil down to "hold my beer" because there is no other option. We are going to open the economy back up fairly soon and let the chips fall where they may would be my guess. And the irony is that we will go back to work to pay for the lifestyles of the very people who will continue to resent us and demonize us for going back to work.
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Post by fauxmaha on Apr 21, 2020 13:19:35 GMT -5
We are going to open the economy back up fairly soon and let the chips fall where they may would be my guess. It's already percolating. People are suffering. Mightily. Right now. And a decent number of them aren't inclined to sit around and wait for help from their betters.
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Post by epaul on Apr 21, 2020 13:58:43 GMT -5
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Post by aquaduct on Apr 21, 2020 15:22:45 GMT -5
I fail to see how someone's economic devastation can be good for anybody.
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Post by james on Apr 21, 2020 15:33:20 GMT -5
A prominent politician folks here said that though she wasn't their favorite, they would nevertheless gladly vote for posted a celebratory tweet at the collapse of the oil industry yesterday. Who tweeted what?
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Post by aquaduct on Apr 21, 2020 15:37:37 GMT -5
A prominent politician folks here said that though she wasn't their favorite, they would nevertheless gladly vote for posted a celebratory tweet at the collapse of the oil industry yesterday. Who tweeted what? I think it was the Occasional-Cortex woman.
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Post by jdd2 on Apr 21, 2020 18:12:09 GMT -5
Is the oil price collapse the canary in the coal mine for the rest of the market?
Will some future retrospective business article say something like, "yeah, everyone should have seen that coming"?
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Post by Marshall on Apr 21, 2020 18:20:00 GMT -5
Is the oil price collapse the canary in the coal mine for the rest of the market? Will some future retrospective business article say something like, "yeah, everyone should have seen that coming"? No matter what happens, someone will be saying that.
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Post by brucemacneill on Apr 21, 2020 18:36:28 GMT -5
Is the oil price collapse the canary in the coal mine for the rest of the market? Will some future retrospective business article say something like, "yeah, everyone should have seen that coming"? I don't really think it will be the canary for the whole market. There are a lot of reasons for the oil crash and some of it is political with Russia and Saudi Arabia. It's unfortunate that they started trying to kill the U.S. oil glut coincident with the pandemic but it's going to hurt them more than it hurts us. They're both petrol-economies and although the Saudis may be able to survive on $3/bbl oil for awhile due to their old reliable oil infrastructure, I don't think Russia can. $1 gas may hurt the electric car business but in the near future Americans will be back on the roads and we're not dependent on the Saudis for oil anymore. We'll lose some of the frackers to bankruptcy but they'll probably get bought out by the likes of Exxon. Europe is opening back up faster than we are so there will be a market for oil there too. Asia can probably keep the Saudis in business once they get back in operation. I don't see $50/bbl oil anytime soon but I suspect it will be back to $30 by mid-Summer or so. Other parts of the markets may not be back for a year or more, hospitality, hotels, cruise lines, casinos may be slow to recover as pleasure trips will have to wait until the working world gets smoothed out and people start having money again. That's just my opinion of course and I see that my financial advisors are backing off emerging markets and internationals some and going to bonds and cash. It's going to be a slow recovery but once it starts I think it will keep going as long as Trump stays in the White House. The canary for our economy would be a Democrat win in November. I did make a mental note today that a lot of Democrat voters will maintain social-distancing forever.
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Post by jdd2 on Apr 21, 2020 19:00:30 GMT -5
I would like to see $30 oil midsummer, too. I bought some UCO recently, under $2 (but there's just been a reverse split 1 for 25), but it has continued falling. One person I know was just razzing me, "why not double down?"
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Post by sidheguitarmichael on Apr 22, 2020 1:46:00 GMT -5
Back to the virus, here’s a quick read on divergent strains of C19: phys.org/news/2020-04-genetic-barcode-rapidly-revealing-covid-.html "This allows us to see the very specific fingerprint of COVID-19 from each region around the world, and to look closely at smaller regions to see how it is different," Rosen said. "Our preliminary analysis, using publicly available data from across the world, is showing that the combination of subtypes of virus found in New York is most similar to those found in Austria, France and Central Europe, but not Italy. And the subtype from Asia, that was detected here early in the pandemic has not spread very much, instead we are seeing a new subtype that only exists in America as the one most prevalent in Washington state and on the west coast."
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Post by jdd2 on Apr 22, 2020 2:53:33 GMT -5
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Post by Marshall on Apr 22, 2020 8:57:28 GMT -5
Mergen said. “I was in there for quite a while and the longer I was there the more disgusted and disappointed I was knowing that I’m not going to see anything put back in my checkbook again, so after a while I just simply left.”
By nightfall the chickens were gone, taken to a rendering plant to be turned into dog food, and so was the Mergens’ income from a business they’ve been running for 22 years.Tough stuff.
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