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Post by Russell Letson on Jul 22, 2024 23:15:50 GMT -5
This year a gerbil could beat Trump. It's pretty academic at this point. Fun to speculate about the who -- who will challenge Harris, who will she pick, etc. But in the end, there's little energy behind Trump. I'm having a bit of trouble understanding how someone who lives in small-town Indiana can think that Trump has no chance. I live in a much less Republican part of the midwest and it still doesn't look to me like the Democrats have lock, even with Biden bowing out. Outstate Minnesota, like outstate Wisconsin, has plenty of steadfast MAGA types, and they are proof against any amount or kind of evidence of their Dear Leader's vices--or, worse, they see them and forgive them because he is somehow saving the nation from [insert illusory enemy here]. I mean, the son of a bitch won the last time despite losing the popular vote--Electoral College leverage got him the job, and his 37% base is unmoveable. (And I can't make head or tail of the third and fourth paragraphs of that post.) |
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Post by epaul on Jul 22, 2024 23:47:23 GMT -5
Judging from John's previous posts, the reason he believes Trump has no chance to win this election is the same reason he believes Trump didn't have a chance to win in 2020... mysterious elites with magical indescribable powers will pull invisible strings and levers to insure they maintain their secret rule. Amazingly, they are able to organize all this without resorting to speech, relying instead on their ability to act in concert by using telepathy, Ouija boards, and the earth's magnetic fields.
The FIX is in.
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Post by kbcolorado on Jul 23, 2024 1:36:15 GMT -5
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Post by millring on Jul 23, 2024 5:54:41 GMT -5
I'm having a bit of trouble understanding how someone who lives in small-town Indiana can think that Trump has no chance. Maybe it's because I read things you won't and am friends with people you think are beneath your vast intellect, and not worth your time. |
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Post by millring on Jul 23, 2024 5:55:41 GMT -5
Judging from John's previous posts, the reason he believes Trump has no chance to win this election is the same reason he believes Trump didn't have a chance to win in 2020. No, I said why. |
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Post by Marshall on Jul 23, 2024 7:31:05 GMT -5
It has something to do with murmuring birds.
"Ohm"
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Post by Russell Letson on Jul 23, 2024 8:19:37 GMT -5
Maybe it's because I read things you won't and am friends with people you think are beneath your vast intellect, and not worth your time. While I was reading that post and watching CNN, a numbers wonk spent several minutes pointing out that Trump's favorability numbers are currently the best they've ever been--40-46%--and concluded that a Harris win is not inevitable. One of the polls he cited was the Quinnipiac, so I checked their site and found this: One day after President Joe Biden dropped out of the 2024 presidential race and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to be the Democratic Party nominee, 49 percent of voters support former President Donald Trump and 47 percent of voters support Harris, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University national poll of registered voters released today. There is no clear leader as the lead is within the margin of error.
The poll was conducted from Friday, July 19th through Sunday, July 21st.
Republicans (93 - 4 percent) and independents (55 - 41 percent) support Trump, while Democrats (97 - 2 percent) support Harris.
<snip>
Voters were asked whether they had a favorable or unfavorable opinion of:
Donald Trump: 46 percent favorable, 49 percent unfavorable, 2 percent haven't heard enough about him - the highest favorability rating for Trump since the Quinnipiac University Poll first asked this question of registered voters in May 2015;
Joe Biden: 38 percent favorable, 57 percent unfavorable, 2 percent haven't heard enough about him;
Kamala Harris: 37 percent favorable, 51 percent unfavorable, 11 percent haven't heard enough about her;
J.D. Vance: 29 percent favorable, 37 percent unfavorable, 34 percent haven't heard enough about him;
Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.: 23 percent favorable, 45 percent unfavorable, 30 percent haven't heard enough about him. poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3901If those numbers are reliable, it's pretty clear that nobody has a lock on the election. I can't say what you read that I won't, and I don't know what friends of yours (aside from those here on the Soundhole) I would be snubbing, but I've lived in little liberal pockets of the otherwise pretty-conservative midwest for close to 60 years, and I think I have a decent sense of what the people around me--not just my personal friends but my fellow citizens--think. I keep mentioning that my former Congressional rep was Michele Bachmann and my current one is Tom Emmer. Somebody around here voted for them. (And my Senators are both Democrats. Somebody voted for them, too. Go figure.) BTW, the "vast intellect" remark is pretty close to being unmannerly. |
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Post by millring on Jul 23, 2024 9:02:07 GMT -5
BTW, the "vast intellect" remark is pretty close to being unmannerly. You're right. I'm sorry. You shouldn't be the target of my response to epaul's insults. |
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Post by epaul on Jul 23, 2024 9:16:03 GMT -5
What insult?
You said the 2020 election was fixed, not by a conspiracy, but by first a large group of birds acting unknowingly in concert to commit election fraud in order to keep Trump out, and then, upon reflection, you switched to a smaller group of elite powerful birds acting in unspoken agreement to cheat the election Biden's way.
You consistently maintain the election was stolen while providing only fuzziness to justify your claims. And you keep insinuating that the same thing will happen again to keep Trump out. These are serious, and damaging, claims. There has to be more than fuzz to repeatedly make such claims. Or, at least, there should be. Trump has changed things.
Trump's delusional and persistent claim of a rigged election is the single most damaging cut to the democratic fabric of this country I have witnessed in my life. You want to repeat the delusion, fine. But, I will continue to ridicule the damaging ridiculous. Your free speech. My free speech.
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Post by millring on Jul 23, 2024 9:37:16 GMT -5
BTW, the "vast intellect" remark is pretty close to being unmannerly. What insult? I said you possess a vast intellect. |
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Post by Russell Letson on Jul 23, 2024 9:45:14 GMT -5
I'll cop to "pretty smart," but "vast" is reserved for my ego.
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Post by TKennedy on Jul 23, 2024 9:59:34 GMT -5
I need to bone up on Harris. Really know very little about her. I remember how scared the world was of Harry Truman when FDR died but he turned out to be a good President who was well treated by historians. People with the right stuff can rise to the occasion.
We’ll just have to hang up, listen and hope.
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Post by majorminor on Jul 23, 2024 9:59:38 GMT -5
I have an ample waist line.
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Post by Russell Letson on Jul 23, 2024 10:09:45 GMT -5
I thought our house had an ample waste line--until we came home to a basement ankle deep in water. Since then we have developed close ties with the local Roto-Rooter franchise.
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Post by howard lee on Jul 23, 2024 10:16:05 GMT -5
Threads like these remind me of watching semi-pro ping-pong tournaments, but with less excitement.
In ping-pong and elections, after countless volleys back and forth across the net, someone scores
ultimately—no matter how much everyone speculates the technique, the qualifications, rankings, and the outcome.
Carry on.
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Post by Cornflake on Jul 23, 2024 10:19:42 GMT -5
"I need to bone up on Harris. Really know very little about her."
In that regard you're like the rest of us. Her primary task in the short run is to let the American people get to know her. If they find her reasonably likeable, she'll be okay. Hillary Clinton wasn't and I think that's a major reason why she lost. Harris also needs to come across as reasonably competent but I don't expect any problem there. I'm not looking for a Great Leader. If she can walk and talk and isn't an asshole, I'll be content.
An old friend worked with her for a while. He liked her and thought she was very sharp. I hope I come to share his view.
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Post by Rob Hanesworth on Jul 23, 2024 13:29:22 GMT -5
There are multiple experienced vice presidents for Harris to choose, assuming she gets the nomination and doesn't want to take a chance on a new person:
Quayle
Gore
Cheney
Biden
Pence
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Post by Cornflake on Jul 24, 2024 9:38:50 GMT -5
The idea of Mark Kelly as VP is gaining traction around here. He's the son of two cops, a former Navy pilot and a former astronaut. He has zero charisma. He's one of the most genuine people in public life. He and Harris know each other and like each other.
I'm not sure the VP nominees will make much difference this year but Kelly would be an excellent choice.
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Post by Marshall on Jul 24, 2024 9:56:56 GMT -5
Can Kelly help bring PA, MI, & WI ? Without them, Harris doesn't stand a chance.
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Post by TKennedy on Jul 24, 2024 10:11:46 GMT -5
A Kelly Vance debate would be entertaining.
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