Post by Cornflake on Sept 17, 2024 14:12:45 GMT -5
From Columbia Magazine. magazine.columbia.edu/article/americas-great-climate-migration-has-begun-heres-what-you-need-know
One thing that climate scientists know for sure is that America’s natural environment will be utterly transformed by mid-century, with profound implications for people’s health, safety, and quality of life. This will be true even under optimistic climate scenarios, such as if the world’s largest economies accelerate their transition to renewable-energy systems and hold average global temperatures to five or six degrees Fahrenheit above preindustrial levels. Scientists now know with a fair degree of certainty, for example, that sea levels will rise one to two feet along the Gulf Coast and Eastern Seaboard by 2050, putting millions of homes at risk for regular flooding. “We’ll probably figure out ways to protect large sections of New York City, Boston, and Miami, because they contain huge numbers of people and billions of dollars in infrastructure, but countless other coastal communities situated in between major cities are going to have a more difficult time adapting,” [geographer Alex] de Sherbinin says. “State and local governments don’t have the resources to build seawalls around every seaside town. So all along the coasts you’re going to see homeowners and businesses trying to relocate. And where residents are too poor to move, we may see stranded assets as insurers pull out.”
Also by mid-century, climate scientists expect that large sections of the West will be turning into desert, that the Great Plains and the South will be stricken by heat waves and oscillating periods of drought and flooding that will make farming much less productive, and that parts of the South will be so hot and humid in the summertime that it will be dangerous to go outdoors. Climate models suggest that the heat index or “real feel” temperature — which describes the combined effects of heat and humidity — could regularly exceed 130 degrees Fahrenheit in many southern states, a level that has rarely been observed anywhere and that is life-threatening even to strong, physically fit people at rest.
Solomon Hsiang..., an economist who studies the effects of rising temperatures on human behavior, has argued that such extreme conditions could soon cause large numbers of people to leave the South, the Midwest, and the West. “People will definitely move. The question is just whether we’ll see this happen in the next few decades, given the current rate of warming,” says Hsiang, who conducted groundbreaking research as a Columbia graduate student and is now a professor at the University of California, Berkeley. He points out that extreme heat has been shown to decrease economic productivity in agriculture, manufacturing, and many other industries, which may lead businesses to relocate from the hottest parts of the US, with workers likely to follow. “At first, we’ll probably see an outflow of people in their twenties and thirties, who tend to be the most mobile,” he says.
Global warming is already causing subtle demographic shifts in the US. Climate-driven natural disasters like wildfires, hurricanes, and floods — which have all grown more frequent, intense, and destructive this century — now force two to three million Americans from their homes annually, and Census Bureau surveys indicate that many displaced people are choosing to permanently relocate out of harm’s way. The US government is also actively encouraging people to clear out of vulnerable areas. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) has in recent years ramped up its efforts to acquire properties that routinely flood, many of which are being restored to estuaries, marshes, and wetlands that act as natural buffers against future storms. Meanwhile, old industrial northern cities, from “Climate-Proof Duluth,” Minnesota, to Burlington, Vermont, are billing themselves as “climate havens” in an effort to lure newcomers and revitalize their economies.
“Northern states could see an influx of people, because their summers will still be fairly pleasant and their winters less severe,” says de Sherbinin. Particularly well-positioned geographically, he says, are states near the Great Lakes, since fresh groundwater will be an increasingly precious resource as the planet warms. De Sherbinin frequently gives lectures in New England and the Great Lakes region about the need for policymakers and urban planners to prepare for the arrival of climate migrants. “Cities and towns throughout these regions could benefit economically and culturally,” he says. “But they need to start planning to provide housing, education, health care, and other services for more people.”
One thing that climate scientists know for sure is that America’s natural environment will be utterly transformed by mid-century, with profound implications for people’s health, safety, and quality of life. This will be true even under optimistic climate scenarios, such as if the world’s largest economies accelerate their transition to renewable-energy systems and hold average global temperatures to five or six degrees Fahrenheit above preindustrial levels. Scientists now know with a fair degree of certainty, for example, that sea levels will rise one to two feet along the Gulf Coast and Eastern Seaboard by 2050, putting millions of homes at risk for regular flooding. “We’ll probably figure out ways to protect large sections of New York City, Boston, and Miami, because they contain huge numbers of people and billions of dollars in infrastructure, but countless other coastal communities situated in between major cities are going to have a more difficult time adapting,” [geographer Alex] de Sherbinin says. “State and local governments don’t have the resources to build seawalls around every seaside town. So all along the coasts you’re going to see homeowners and businesses trying to relocate. And where residents are too poor to move, we may see stranded assets as insurers pull out.”
Also by mid-century, climate scientists expect that large sections of the West will be turning into desert, that the Great Plains and the South will be stricken by heat waves and oscillating periods of drought and flooding that will make farming much less productive, and that parts of the South will be so hot and humid in the summertime that it will be dangerous to go outdoors. Climate models suggest that the heat index or “real feel” temperature — which describes the combined effects of heat and humidity — could regularly exceed 130 degrees Fahrenheit in many southern states, a level that has rarely been observed anywhere and that is life-threatening even to strong, physically fit people at rest.
Solomon Hsiang..., an economist who studies the effects of rising temperatures on human behavior, has argued that such extreme conditions could soon cause large numbers of people to leave the South, the Midwest, and the West. “People will definitely move. The question is just whether we’ll see this happen in the next few decades, given the current rate of warming,” says Hsiang, who conducted groundbreaking research as a Columbia graduate student and is now a professor at the University of California, Berkeley. He points out that extreme heat has been shown to decrease economic productivity in agriculture, manufacturing, and many other industries, which may lead businesses to relocate from the hottest parts of the US, with workers likely to follow. “At first, we’ll probably see an outflow of people in their twenties and thirties, who tend to be the most mobile,” he says.
Global warming is already causing subtle demographic shifts in the US. Climate-driven natural disasters like wildfires, hurricanes, and floods — which have all grown more frequent, intense, and destructive this century — now force two to three million Americans from their homes annually, and Census Bureau surveys indicate that many displaced people are choosing to permanently relocate out of harm’s way. The US government is also actively encouraging people to clear out of vulnerable areas. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) has in recent years ramped up its efforts to acquire properties that routinely flood, many of which are being restored to estuaries, marshes, and wetlands that act as natural buffers against future storms. Meanwhile, old industrial northern cities, from “Climate-Proof Duluth,” Minnesota, to Burlington, Vermont, are billing themselves as “climate havens” in an effort to lure newcomers and revitalize their economies.
“Northern states could see an influx of people, because their summers will still be fairly pleasant and their winters less severe,” says de Sherbinin. Particularly well-positioned geographically, he says, are states near the Great Lakes, since fresh groundwater will be an increasingly precious resource as the planet warms. De Sherbinin frequently gives lectures in New England and the Great Lakes region about the need for policymakers and urban planners to prepare for the arrival of climate migrants. “Cities and towns throughout these regions could benefit economically and culturally,” he says. “But they need to start planning to provide housing, education, health care, and other services for more people.”
