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Post by james on Apr 29, 2020 20:19:35 GMT -5
Marshall linked (above and previously)to a comparative animated graphic of data for every day for the last few weeks. I compared the data displayed with other reputable sources. I actually checked the math. That's awesome!
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Post by Marshall on Apr 29, 2020 20:29:40 GMT -5
What my link showed is that the rate of deaths went from not being in the top 10 to being number one in a month and a half's time. More so than heart disease. And that's with all the quarantining going on.
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Post by aquaduct on Apr 29, 2020 20:47:54 GMT -5
What my link showed is that the rate of deaths went from not being in the top 10 to being number one in a month and a half's time. More so than heart disease. And that's with all the quarantining going on. So that must have lasted about what? An hour and a half? That's the only way that math works.
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Post by millring on Apr 29, 2020 20:49:30 GMT -5
What my link showed is that the rate of deaths went from not being in the top 10 to being number one in a month and a half's time. More so than heart disease. And that's with all the quarantining going on. Look at the graphic and what it's really saying.
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Post by james on Apr 29, 2020 21:17:13 GMT -5
I see no reason to quibble extensively with -
"Actual COVID-19 deaths per day in the US vs. average deaths per day from top 15 other causes Please allow the animation to play."
Edit - It is almost certainly an undercount.
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Post by Marshall on Apr 29, 2020 21:40:30 GMT -5
What my link showed is that the rate of deaths went from not being in the top 10 to being number one in a month and a half's time. More so than heart disease. And that's with all the quarantining going on. Look at the graphic and what it's really saying. OK. When I get some more spare time (like Soundhole is not spare time), I'll see if I can find Waldo. (I was kinda hoping you'd clue me in where to look for the smoking gun, and the fallacy of my ways. )
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Post by Cornflake on Apr 29, 2020 21:42:13 GMT -5
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Post by Cornflake on Apr 29, 2020 21:45:05 GMT -5
PS: I'm not arguing for anything. I'm not sure what the argument is about.
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Post by aquaduct on Apr 29, 2020 21:53:05 GMT -5
PS: I'm not arguing for anything. I'm not sure what the argument is about. Good. Because the math here is reprehensible.
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Post by james on Apr 29, 2020 22:04:05 GMT -5
Maybe people here are at various points on a Kubler-Rossish curve?
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Post by aquaduct on Apr 29, 2020 22:06:44 GMT -5
Maybe people here are at various points on a Kubler-Rossish curve? Is that some kind of "how bad you suck at math" curve?
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Post by james on Apr 29, 2020 22:16:51 GMT -5
Thank heavens for your shining wit!
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Post by epaul on Apr 29, 2020 23:44:12 GMT -5
CDC numbers.
Heart attack deaths per year: 647,457 (heart disease adds another 200,000 to the number, call it 800,000+ deaths per year from heart disease).
Divide 647,457 by 12 to get a monthly heart attack death rate of 53,955. Hell, just call it 50,000 heart attack deaths per month.
Or go for deaths per month from the broader category of heart disease and come up with a number north of 65,000 per month.
Throw in the monthly death rate from cancer of 50,000 per month.
The Covid 19 virus has killed what, 21,358 in three months.
Round the numbers:
Fatalities
3 months Covid 19 = 22,000
1 month heart attacks = 50,000 (or 65,000 from heart disease per month)
1 month cancer = 50,000
You can do amazing things with graphs and graphics. Showy and impressive. But if the numbers and methodology behind the flash and sparkle aren't revealed, explained, or understood, the door is opened for manipulation and deception. I don't care what graph guy's intent was, good or bad, I know what he was up to. He played the magician with time and numbers to create a showy illusion.
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Post by epaul on Apr 29, 2020 23:56:04 GMT -5
This should have been done. No, that should have been done. This was necessary. No, that wasn't necessary. I have the numbers. No, I have the numbers. Your numbers are shit. Your numbers are shit. You are an asshole. No, you are an asshole.
It's going to be a long year.
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Post by james on Apr 30, 2020 0:24:28 GMT -5
"Right now". 2400 or thereabouts people were killed by Covid-19 today in the US. The biggest killer. That's not a number that is showing many signs of significantly reducing tomorrow or the next day. The trend thus far and the potential for the pandemic to worsen look worrying. The rates of (the presently lower numbers of) deaths from other causes are relatively predictable in a way that the Covid-19 deaths are not. The recent lower estimate has been met and it will be considerably exceeded.
At the moment and for some unknown, depressing time to come covid-19 will periodically kill more people every day than other deadly things. It depends on humans' physical proximity to each other more than anything.
There will be waves.
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Post by jdd2 on Apr 30, 2020 0:56:39 GMT -5
math > maths
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Post by sidheguitarmichael on Apr 30, 2020 2:25:37 GMT -5
In other news, I’ve had yet another bout with shortness of breath, so we finally caved and called our ID doc buddy. I try to stay out of his hair while he’s slammed with this, but enough is enough, so I’ll be getting my test results in a few days. I’d be astonished if we’re shedding anything noteworthy, since it’s been a month since we were crazy sick, but maybe we will learn something.
One thing I did learn: our ERs and urgent care places are insanely *not* busy at this point. Our guy said that there was no wait at the ER... and I had the neighborhood urgent care place that we chose completely to myself.
The irony. My guy and his team were involved in prepping an aux wing of a hospital to make an extra 150 beds available, back in January, and there’s maybe 8 COVID patients In ICU right now. Places that didn’t have the same level of advanced prep got swamped—some to the point of capsize. What a hell of a thing.
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Post by millring on Apr 30, 2020 5:41:14 GMT -5
Stick with Tucker Carlson's white power hour then? Hey Todd, Aqua just got put in the penalty box for a week for posts unbefitting of the Soundhole's policy of no personal attacks. Here's yet again the tired but dependable charge of "racism" because I disagree with James' assertions about COVID. It doesn't get much worse that being called a racist.
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Post by aquaduct on Apr 30, 2020 6:46:09 GMT -5
In other news, I’ve had yet another bout with shortness of breath, so we finally caved and called our ID doc buddy. I try to stay out of his hair while he’s slammed with this, but enough is enough, so I’ll be getting my test results in a few days. I’d be astonished if we’re shedding anything noteworthy, since it’s been a month since we were crazy sick, but maybe we will learn something. One thing I did learn: our ERs and urgent care places are insanely *not* busy at this point. Our guy said that there was no wait at the ER... and I had the neighborhood urgent care place that we chose completely to myself. The irony. My guy and his team were involved in prepping an aux wing of a hospital to make an extra 150 beds available, back in January, and there’s maybe 8 COVID patients In ICU right now. Places that didn’t have the same level of advanced prep got swamped—some to the point of capsize. What a hell of a thing. And that's probably the cruel irony here. Many of these places geared up for an onslaught, sacrificing other paying customers on the way. Now that the panic is subsiding (and largely unrealized), there's no money coming in leading to layoffs and dancing precipitously close to full on bankruptcy and collapse. In other businesses, single sourcing anything is a hugely risky move to be avoided. Our business is actively looking to branch out into untapped markets (I'm actually getting very close to being volunteered to film a little experimental commercial "shoot" from my back deck, but I digress). Of course, the panic seems to have been largely driven by the medical community. God, that sucks.
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Post by james on Apr 30, 2020 9:39:53 GMT -5
Stick with Tucker Carlson's white power hour then? Hey Todd, Aqua just got put in the penalty box for a week for posts unbefitting of the Soundhole's policy of no personal attacks. Here's yet again the tired but dependable charge of "racism" because I disagree with James' assertions about COVID. It doesn't get much worse that being called a racist. Sorry. Poorly phrased. I don't imagine that you watch Tucker Carlson. You have made it clear that you'd sooner watch PBS.
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