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Post by TKennedy on Feb 26, 2020 14:02:29 GMT -5
The fuhrer says not to worry so I’m good with it.
Sounds like the risk of dying if infected is around 2%.
Always amazing how international hysteria develops over something like this vs. impaired driving which claims 29 people a day from alcohol alone in the US not to mention many more from devices.
I always picture a table of overweight slobs drinking beer and eating greasy hamburgers in a bar outraged over the government not protecting them from the Coronavirus before staggering to their cars to drive home.
Humor aside, it IS a big deal.
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Post by sidheguitarmichael on Feb 26, 2020 14:03:50 GMT -5
The University of Nebraska Medical Center's quarantine unit is being used for some number of the infected. Not in love with the fact that they are bringing those guys to town, but what are you gonna do? There is no better place on earth for those patients to be. The staff in that facility are the best prepared people on the planet, by and large. Total non-issue. If you want to worry about something, you have my permission to lay awake at night thinking about college kids traveling all over for spring break next week and coming back to the U, or aunt edna going to visit family in the bay area and catching the most recent Marvel universe film in a metroplex, then flying through 3 major airports home. ![:D](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/grin.png) BTW, Michael, could you enlarge on that "They unleashed Pandora’s box with that lab research" comment? The reactions from scientists to, say, Tom Cotton's remarks are less than luke-warm. I have to teach imminently; I’ll see if I can carve out some time to dump what I’ve got later. Bottom.ine: this came from a gov’t-funded research lab, and the main guy in charge there is dead now, so we have to run with ontological parsimony, history, and the reporting coming from Asia experts on the ground that made it out. No idea who Tom Colton is. I was thinking about that and realized that as long as I have a wife who works in an elementary school and sings in the church choir, any bug that's making the rounds will be coming home, just as they do now. Believe me, I hear you. K is doing appts and PT 3 days a week within a few thousand feet of US patients zero; I teach at—currently—3 universities, one of which has a student population that is 78 percent out-of-area. Hell, the first class I teach tomorrow morning has a student who is from mainland China (he’s not goung home for spring break, btw). So, yeah. But this is only in force while elementary schools and churches remain open. Grab a 3-week supply of dry goods and beer anyways. You can always est it up at the patio table later this summer. JMO.
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Post by majorminor on Feb 26, 2020 14:05:11 GMT -5
I always picture a table of overweight slobs drinking beer and eating greasy hamburgers in a bar outraged over the government not protecting them from the Coronavirus before staggering to their cars to drive home. Fish 'N Chips and a truck but....yeah.... pretty much
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Post by RickW on Feb 26, 2020 14:06:06 GMT -5
To put it into perspective in a different light, 14,000 people have already died from the flu in the US this year. So, how many of you have got your flu shots? Yup, I thought so.
Mortality from covid seems to be around 5 percent, with heavy hitting in children and seniors. A few more percentage points of internal organ damage. For most folks, it’s like a flu. I’m not saying there’s no reason to do nothing, but the screaming paranoia that seems to be seizing the world is a bit over the top.
My youngest daughter is in South Korea. They’re freaking out. They don’t have a work at home culture, and they are telling everyone to stay home. She flew to Taiwan for a small vacation, almost wasn’t allowed to go. Her initial return flight was cancelled. The airports were almost empty. Most of the rest of the flights between the countries have now been cancelled until April. It’s seriously affecting every aspect of the economy.
On an interesting notes, most hockey sticks are manufactured in China, including all the custom ones the players get. Some of the NHL players have a habit of breaking their sticks when angry, and they have been told to stop, as they can’t get more. Some of the players are apparently down to a couple of sticks. They don’t last long at the best of times.
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Post by sidheguitarmichael on Feb 26, 2020 14:06:10 GMT -5
I've been semi-seriously considering cancelling an upcoming trip: flying to and from Orlando and spending four days at a conference with an international membership. Cancelling flight and conference membership would cost, though probably not as much as a hospital stay for two (since C. catches respiratory viruses easily--and has one now). Honest to God, Russell, I’m not sure what I’d do, after this morning’s phone call.
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Post by majorminor on Feb 26, 2020 14:11:45 GMT -5
On an interesting notes, most hockey sticks are manufactured in China, including all the custom ones the players get. Some of the NHL players have a habit of breaking their sticks when angry, and they have been told to stop, as they can’t get more. Some of the players are apparently down to a couple of sticks. They don’t last long at the best of times. Shit's about to get real in Canada! Seriously on followup I think the survival rates of the young from newborn to teens is very high actually
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Post by sidheguitarmichael on Feb 26, 2020 14:14:29 GMT -5
Sounds like the risk of dying if infected is around 2%. You know more than I on this, but my suspicion is that any mortality numbers are a guess. We have no idea whatsoever what the asymptomatic rates are at this point. Now that some nations with typically more reliable reporting are developing a decent sample size, the picture should clear up a bit. It may well be less than 2 percent of actual infected; we just have no idea whatsoever coming out of China, IMVHO. As to your comments on "comorbidity factors," total ironic truth. Same argument I make about most media-driven cause macabres. ![;)](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/wink.png)
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Post by Marshall on Feb 26, 2020 14:16:35 GMT -5
So, how many of you have got your flu shots? Yup, I thought so. ![](https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwp.production.patheos.com%2Fblogs%2Ffreedhearts%2Ffiles%2F2013%2F03%2Fraise-your-hand.jpg%3Fw%3D300&f=1&nofb=1)
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Post by Cornflake on Feb 26, 2020 14:16:48 GMT -5
"To put it into perspective in a different light, 14,000 people have already died from the flu in the US this year. So, how many of you have got your flu shots?"
Me! Me!
"I’m not saying there’s no reason to do nothing, but the screaming paranoia that seems to be seizing the world is a bit over the top."
Reading the news you can get a sense of near panic. People I know, though, aren't talking about it much and when the subject does come up, people seem no more concerned than they are about the flu. The friend I had coffee with this morning is still going to Africa in May with his wife.
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Post by Russell Letson on Feb 26, 2020 14:25:43 GMT -5
Rick: It's potentially a big deal even if the mortality distribution is "only" mostly kids and geezers. If the current model turns out to be accurate, the combination of high communicability and asymptomatic carriers means that it can spread stealthily--there is already anecdotal evidence of this. Then there's the matter of impact-on-resources, even if the proportion of mild to severe cases turns out to be less than a bad flu. And the question of what treatment protocols are most effective and most available.
I suppose C. and I are disposable in the overall economic system, but what working-age parent wants to carry home a disease that might kill the kids, even if the grownups can get through it? For that matter, what working-age grownup wants to be sick and out of work anyway, whether it's the Corona virus or the flu or a bad shrimp cocktail? (At least the shrimp cocktail isn't catching.)
The current anxiety is another preview of what the rest of the century will probably bring: pathogens spreading beyond their usual environments and reservoirs, driven by climate change and population dispersals. It's not irrational to wonder about the robustness of the world's public-health systems.
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Post by RickW on Feb 26, 2020 14:39:14 GMT -5
"To put it into perspective in a different light, 14,000 people have already died from the flu in the US this year. So, how many of you have got your flu shots?" Me! Me! "I’m not saying there’s no reason to do nothing, but the screaming paranoia that seems to be seizing the world is a bit over the top." Reading the news you can get a sense of near panic. People I know, though, aren't talking about it much and when the subject does come up, people seem no more concerned than they are about the flu. The friend I had coffee with this morning is still going to Africa in May with his wife. I can tell you that in Korea, they’re into screaming paranoia. My daughter is saying the streets are empty. Schools have been shut down for two weeks after their current winter break.
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Post by majorminor on Feb 26, 2020 14:40:00 GMT -5
Yo www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/Age of Coronavirus Deaths Based on all 72,314 cases of COVID-19 confirmed, suspected, and asymptomatic cases in China as of February 11, a paper by the Chinese CCDC released on February 17 and published in the Chinese Journal of Epidemiology [1] has found that the risk of death increases the older you are, as follows: COVID-19 Fatality Rate by AGE: *Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending on the age group. The percentage shown below does NOT represent in any way the share of deaths by age group. Rather, it represents, for a person in a given age group, the risk of dying if infected with COVID-19. AGE DEATH RATE* 80+ years old 14.8% 70-79 years old 8.0% 60-69 years old 3.6% 50-59 years old 1.3% 40-49 years old 0.4% 30-39 years old 0.2% 20-29 years old 0.2% 10-19 years old 0.2% 0-9 years old no fatalities *Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). In general, relatively few cases are seen among children. Sex ratio COVID-19 Fatality Rate by SEX: *Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending on sex. When reading these numbers, it must be taken into account that smoking in China is much more prevalent among males. Smoking increases the risks of respiratory complications. SEX DEATH RATE * Male 2.8% Female 1.7% *Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). Pre-existing medical conditions (comorbidities) Patients who reported no pre-existing ("comorbid") medical conditions had a case fatality rate of 0.9%. Pre-existing illnesses that put patients at higher risk of dying from a COVID-19 infection are: COVID-19 Fatality Rate by COMORBIDITY: *Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending on pre-existing condition. The percentage shown below does NOT represent in any way the share of deaths by pre-existing condition. Rather, it represents, for a patient with a given pre-existing condition, the risk of dying if infected by COVID-19. PRE-EXISTING CONDITION DEATH RATE* Cardiovascular disease 10.5% Diabetes 7.3% Chronic respiratory disease 6.3% Hypertension 6.0% Cancer 5.6% no pre-existing conditions 0.9% *Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%).
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Post by Cornflake on Feb 26, 2020 14:44:01 GMT -5
"AGE DEATH RATE* 80+ years old 14.8% 70-79 years old 8.0% 60-69 years old 3.6% 50-59 years old 1.3% 40-49 years old 0.4% 30-39 years old 0.2% 20-29 years old 0.2% 10-19 years old 0.2% 0-9 years old no fatalities"
I'd better catch it quickly. My risk of dying will more than double on my next birthday.
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Post by RickW on Feb 26, 2020 14:44:16 GMT -5
Rick: It's potentially a big deal even if the mortality distribution is "only" mostly kids and geezers. If the current model turns out to be accurate, the combination of high communicability and asymptomatic carriers means that it can spread stealthily--there is already anecdotal evidence of this. Then there's the matter of impact-on-resources, even if the proportion of mild to severe cases turns out to be less than a bad flu. And the question of what treatment protocols are most effective and most available. I suppose C. and I are disposable in the overall economic system, but what working-age parent wants to carry home a disease that might kill the kids, even if the grownups can get through it? For that matter, what working-age grownup wants to be sick and out of work anyway, whether it's the Corona virus or the flu or a bad shrimp cocktail? (At least the shrimp cocktail isn't catching.) The current anxiety is another preview of what the rest of the century will probably bring: pathogens spreading beyond their usual environments and reservoirs, driven by climate change and population dispersals. It's not irrational to wonder about the robustness of the world's public-health systems. I understand all that, Russell. The thing is, no one is wasting a bunch of breath talking about the flu, and I don’t believe covid is much more fatal than that is. No one is talking quarantines, stopping all travel, shutting down factories an commerce because the flu this year is particularly bad. The stock market has not gone into a meltdown over it. We’re still waiting for full disclosure on the spread, I’m sure, but so far, the indications are that it’s actual air borne droplets, so you have to be near someone nearby who is actually expelling the stuff in quantity to catch it. It may catch and kill me yet, turn into an enormous monster. But I’m not sure the evidence so far suggests that it’s the holy terror it’s being made out to be. One thing is for certain. The chinese government once again tried to cover this up, or at the very least, ignored it a lot longer than they should.
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Post by aquaduct on Feb 26, 2020 14:47:55 GMT -5
Yo www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/Age of Coronavirus Deaths Based on all 72,314 cases of COVID-19 confirmed, suspected, and asymptomatic cases in China as of February 11, a paper by the Chinese CCDC released on February 17 and published in the Chinese Journal of Epidemiology [1] has found that the risk of death increases the older you are, as follows: COVID-19 Fatality Rate by AGE: *Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending on the age group. The percentage shown below does NOT represent in any way the share of deaths by age group. Rather, it represents, for a person in a given age group, the risk of dying if infected with COVID-19. AGE DEATH RATE* 80+ years old 14.8% 70-79 years old 8.0% 60-69 years old 3.6% 50-59 years old 1.3% 40-49 years old 0.4% 30-39 years old 0.2% 20-29 years old 0.2% 10-19 years old 0.2% 0-9 years old no fatalities *Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). In general, relatively few cases are seen among children. Sex ratio COVID-19 Fatality Rate by SEX: *Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending on sex. When reading these numbers, it must be taken into account that smoking in China is much more prevalent among males. Smoking increases the risks of respiratory complications. SEX DEATH RATE * Male 2.8% Female 1.7% *Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). Pre-existing medical conditions (comorbidities) Patients who reported no pre-existing ("comorbid") medical conditions had a case fatality rate of 0.9%. Pre-existing illnesses that put patients at higher risk of dying from a COVID-19 infection are: COVID-19 Fatality Rate by COMORBIDITY: *Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending on pre-existing condition. The percentage shown below does NOT represent in any way the share of deaths by pre-existing condition. Rather, it represents, for a patient with a given pre-existing condition, the risk of dying if infected by COVID-19. PRE-EXISTING CONDITION DEATH RATE* Cardiovascular disease 10.5% Diabetes 7.3% Chronic respiratory disease 6.3% Hypertension 6.0% Cancer 5.6% no pre-existing conditions 0.9% *Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). So what's the real upshot of this stuff? The normal death rate in this country is about 7700 folks a day. This can potentially raise that to what? 7700.0124?
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Post by Cornflake on Feb 26, 2020 14:51:54 GMT -5
"The normal death rate in this country is about 7700 folks a day. This can potentially raise that to what? 7700.0124?"
I don't know but we're not statistics. If you're one of the 8 percent of people over 70 who die from the disease, it'll be a big deal.
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Post by John B on Feb 26, 2020 14:58:01 GMT -5
The big building just to the West of me operates 10 plants in the Wuhan province. Those are shut down for now, but I do wonder how many local folks travel to and from China (lots) and when they stopped.
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Post by aquaduct on Feb 26, 2020 15:01:20 GMT -5
"The normal death rate in this country is about 7700 folks a day. This can potentially raise that to what? 7700.0124?" I don't know but we're not statistics. If you're one of the 8 percent of people over 70 who die from the disease, it'll be a big deal. Sorry, can't agree. Life's risky. No one gets out alive. We die from all sorts of shit. At all ages. The risk of this stuff, above and beyond the simple risks of getting out of bed in the morning, appear to be negligible. You're taking a much bigger risk just driving to work. I personally have at least 3 things competing to be what kills me and this virus ain't even in the top 1200. It sure as hell doesn't rate hiding under the bed.
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Post by Russell Letson on Feb 26, 2020 15:23:17 GMT -5
As an immunosuppressed 75-year-old with a wife susceptible to respiratory infections, I might be forgiven for looking askance at a new virus (with no vaccine available*) and a treatment protocol still in development. We get our flu shots--the geezer-strength ones--religiously. Effectiveness varies from strain to strain. And C. still got bronchitis and pneumonia last year. We don't fuck around with respiratory infections, any more than we stroll through rush-hour traffic.
Public health systems aim at minimizing the effects of dangers--and a we're-all-mortal argument devalues prudence.
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Post by aquaduct on Feb 26, 2020 15:30:42 GMT -5
As an immunosuppressed 75-year-old with a wife susceptible to respiratory infections, I might be forgiven for looking askance at a new virus (with no vaccine available*) and a treatment protocol still in development. We get our flu shots--the geezer-strength ones--religiously. Effectiveness varies from strain to strain. And C. still got bronchitis and pneumonia last year. We don't fuck around with respiratory infections, any more than we stroll through rush-hour traffic. Public health systems aim at minimizing the effects of dangers--and a we're-all-mortal argument devalues prudence. Then stay home. Nobody's stopping you.
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