Predicting what a jury will do
May 29, 2024 12:44:15 GMT -5
billhammond, david, and 1 more like this
Post by Cornflake on May 29, 2024 12:44:15 GMT -5
When I still passed for a young lawyer, I spent six weeks trying an antitrust case to a jury. My partner Larry Hammond tried the case with me and we split the duties 50-50. We represented the plaintiff, U S West Direct, the directory-publishing subsidiary of our local Baby Bell. It was suing a company called Citizens Utilities. Our client’s claim was that Citizens Utilities was trying to monopolize the publishing of yellow-pages directories in part of Arizona.
When the jury finally retired to deliberate, Larry and I discussed what we thought the jury would do. We’d had six weeks to observe the jurors and we thought we had them all figured out. Our overall sense was that the jury was mostly on our side. But we thought that two ladies on the jury were resistant to our case. We agreed that the most likely result was a verdict in our favor. The second most likely result was a hung jury, probably split 9-2. (Verdicts didn't have to be unanimous in civil cases.)
After several days of deliberation, the jury foreman sent the judge a note saying that the jury couldn’t agree on a verdict. The judge gave them a standard instruction that is used when that situation arises. It boiled down to “try harder.” Two days later the jury foreman sent a note saying that they weren’t making progress and tempers on the jury were getting hot. At that point, the judge ruled that the jury was hung and declared a mistrial. That usually means a case has to be tried again from scratch. The jury was dismissed.
We were allowed to talk to the jurors at that point. The jury had indeed hung 9-2 in our favor. It turned out that the two ladies we thought were resistant to our case had been our biggest cheerleaders. Two guys who we thought were solidly on our side were the holdouts. The other jurors were mad at them but they were immovable.
That’s a roundabout way of making my point: I have no idea what a jury will do, even when I’ve sat through the trial and heard all the evidence the jurors heard. That fact doesn’t stop me from making predictions. It just renders my predictions worthless.
Putting aside what I think should happen and what I want to happen in the pending case in New York, I think a hung jury is the most likely result. I wouldn’t be surprised by a conviction. I’d be very surprised by an acquittal.
My sense after trying a lot of cases to juries is that they usually get things about right. I never had a jury go completely off the rails. If it happens, the judge can throw out the jury verdict and order a retrial.
When the jury finally retired to deliberate, Larry and I discussed what we thought the jury would do. We’d had six weeks to observe the jurors and we thought we had them all figured out. Our overall sense was that the jury was mostly on our side. But we thought that two ladies on the jury were resistant to our case. We agreed that the most likely result was a verdict in our favor. The second most likely result was a hung jury, probably split 9-2. (Verdicts didn't have to be unanimous in civil cases.)
After several days of deliberation, the jury foreman sent the judge a note saying that the jury couldn’t agree on a verdict. The judge gave them a standard instruction that is used when that situation arises. It boiled down to “try harder.” Two days later the jury foreman sent a note saying that they weren’t making progress and tempers on the jury were getting hot. At that point, the judge ruled that the jury was hung and declared a mistrial. That usually means a case has to be tried again from scratch. The jury was dismissed.
We were allowed to talk to the jurors at that point. The jury had indeed hung 9-2 in our favor. It turned out that the two ladies we thought were resistant to our case had been our biggest cheerleaders. Two guys who we thought were solidly on our side were the holdouts. The other jurors were mad at them but they were immovable.
That’s a roundabout way of making my point: I have no idea what a jury will do, even when I’ve sat through the trial and heard all the evidence the jurors heard. That fact doesn’t stop me from making predictions. It just renders my predictions worthless.
Putting aside what I think should happen and what I want to happen in the pending case in New York, I think a hung jury is the most likely result. I wouldn’t be surprised by a conviction. I’d be very surprised by an acquittal.
My sense after trying a lot of cases to juries is that they usually get things about right. I never had a jury go completely off the rails. If it happens, the judge can throw out the jury verdict and order a retrial.
