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Post by Chesapeake on Feb 15, 2019 16:25:13 GMT -5
...in the sense that Gettysburg was the high-water mark for the Confederacy? After Gettysburg, the war continued to drag on, but everything started coming apart for the South. Trump's political demise has been predicted with regularity ever since the various outrages he committed during the campaign. But I'm betting now that history will look on this moment of pretty much unmitigated defeat over the border wall issue as when the Trump presidency began its inexorable decline. The moment when he discovered that he can't have his way in Washington just by holding his breath until he turns blue.
Of course, I could be wrong. Many have before me. But consider: The first two years of a new administration typically are when the new team gets its most important work done. The incomers have a fresh mandate from The People. The winds are at their backs; and they have their best chances at enacting their most ambitious legislative goals, as outlined during the campaign.
What has Trump done with his one-time-only period of grace?
After a ramshackle, at times byzantine process, Trump finally managed to find himself with a tax-reform bill on his desk that he decided he could sign. The jury is still out on whether it will be a net plus for taxpayers and the U.S. economy. But other than that bill, I don't see much else to crow about. It looks to me like he has managed to squander his first two years on a small-bore agenda, with uneven results.
His defenders will answer with a long list of mostly small-bore legislative achievements, plus whatever he's been able to do by executive fiat. But what does he really have to show for two years of various kinds of chaos and fruitless, in the end pointless, diversions? Two new Supreme Court justices belonging to his political wing? Any president could have done that, given the opportunities of two vacancies: no feats of governing genius required.
Most recently he's wasted a serious amount of what political capital he has left on the Hill, outside of his bullet-proof base, on the border wall issue. With his government shutdown - clearly a poorly thought-out, and in the end self-defeating act (he wound up with far less for his wall than he could have gotten when a compromise was first presented to him) - he has brought his own Republican party in the Senate to the brink of revolt. I suspect if he'd chosen to initiate a second shutdown, both chambers would have repudiated him with a Continuing Resolution containing only a small amount of wall funds, AND with veto-proof majorities. And that could have been the end of Trump as a serious political force right there.
Now he faces the next two years being harried by a rampaging Democratic majority in the House, armed with subpoena power, investigating various aspects of his presidency as well as his personal and financial life, along with whatever comes of the Mueller investigation.
Good luck with that. Donald Trump, meet Robert E. Lee.
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Post by aquaduct on Feb 15, 2019 16:30:25 GMT -5
...in the sense that Gettysburg was the high-water mark for the Confederacy? After Gettysburg, the war continued to drag on, but everything started coming apart for the South. Trump's political demise has been predicted with regularity ever since the various outrages he committed during the campaign. But I'm betting now that history will look on this moment of pretty much unmitigated defeat over the border wall issue as when the Trump presidency began its inexorable decline. The moment when he discovered that he can't have his way in Washington just by holding his breath until he turns blue. Of course, I could be wrong. Many have before me. But consider: The first two years of a new administration typically are when the new team gets its most important work done. The incomers have a fresh mandate from The People. The winds are at their backs; and they have their best chances at enacting their most ambitious legislative goals, as outlined during the campaign. What has Trump done with his one-time-only period of grace? After a ramshackle, at times byzantine process, Trump finally managed to find himself with a tax-reform bill on his desk that he decided he could sign. The jury is still out on whether it will be a net plus for taxpayers and the U.S. economy. But other than that bill, I don't see much else to crow about. It looks to me like he has managed to squander his first two years on a small-bore agenda, with uneven results. His defenders will answer with a long list of mostly small-bore legislative achievements, plus whatever he's been able to do by executive fiat. But what does he really have to show for two years of various kinds of chaos and fruitless, in the end pointless, diversions? Two new Supreme Court justices belonging to his political wing? Any president could have done that, given the opportunities of two vacancies: no feats of governing genius required. Most recently he's wasted a serious amount of what political capital he has left on the Hill, outside of his bullet-proof base, on the border wall issue. With his government shutdown - clearly a poorly thought-out, and in the end self-defeating act (he wound up with far less for his wall than he could have gotten when a compromise was first presented to him) - he has brought his own Republican party in the Senate to the brink of revolt. I suspect if he'd chosen to initiate a second shutdown, both chambers would have repudiated him with a Continuing Resolution containing only a small amount of wall funds, AND with veto-proof majorities. And that could have been the end of Trump as a serious political force right there. Now he faces the next two years being harried by a rampaging Democratic majority in the House, armed with subpoena power, investigating various aspects of his presidency as well as his personal and financial life, along with whatever comes of the Mueller investigation. Good luck with that. Seriously, have you even looked at the Green New Deal circus that liberals are shooting themselves in the dicks over? And Trump's got problems? You've got to be kidding. |
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Post by Chesapeake on Feb 15, 2019 16:36:23 GMT -5
Ah, the "but-what-about" strategy.
But I agree, God help the Democrats if they go for that GND stuff.
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Post by brucemacneill on Feb 15, 2019 16:42:12 GMT -5
I believe Chesapeake's slip is showing again. He claims to be an independent thinker but he spews the Democrat line as bad as Tim and Mike do. They can't comprehend the Trump way of doing things. They say he's losing when he's not. He's getting stuff done they've been fighting against for 50 years. They're playing Chinese Checkers while he's playing Chess. They think he's crazy because he doesn't play by their rules. He's playing a different game.
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Post by aquaduct on Feb 15, 2019 16:44:57 GMT -5
Ah, the "but-what-about" strategy. But I agree, God help the Democrats if they go for that GND stuff. It's not really a strategy. This is the best economy I've seen in at least 20 years. I'm (and most folks I know) are working and way too busy to pay much of any attention to the incestuous self-centered shithole called Washington, DC. Oh, and Trump's gone to Plan B on the wall anyways, pretty much just like he said. And the shutdown was the year's non-event for anyone out here past the beltway, no matter what the media mouthpieces have to say about it. I mean, really? What's to care about for a Trump supporter? |
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Post by Chesapeake on Feb 15, 2019 16:48:24 GMT -5
Ahhh, the smell of denial in the morning. It smells like .... delusion.
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Post by majorminor on Feb 15, 2019 16:49:02 GMT -5
blah blah blah blah Two new Supreme Court justices belonging to his political wing? blah blah blah blah |
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Post by jdd2 on Feb 15, 2019 16:53:42 GMT -5
If the wall is/was such an emergency, why couldn't he get it while he and the reps controlled both houses? (or at least take what he'd been offered)
And if it's such an emergency, why has he waited over two years in office to get around to it?
Three shutdowns in his first two years, when he 'controlled' both houses...? Such winning!
And if the third shutdown had gone on a couple more days, problems with air traffic and closed airports would have gotten plenty of people's attention.
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Post by majorminor on Feb 15, 2019 16:56:26 GMT -5
And Ches I respect you and like the way you framed your argument. I just really don't think this moment in his political arc is much different than anything we've seen or are gonna see. It's actually amazing to me how much has actually gotten done given what a target and a caricature he is. Tax deal. Nearly killed Obamacare and may yet. EPA bitch slapped back to reality. Trade deals. 2 supreme court justices that weren't picked by Hillary. You say he's done. I'm starting to think that orange asshole is gonna go 2 terms.
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Post by jdd2 on Feb 15, 2019 17:03:33 GMT -5
The new NAFTA? The one that's virtually identical to the old one, and that also has yet to be voted into effect? That's the only one so far, and it isn't even law yet. He's been unable to bully europe into breaking off the Iran deal--is that a trade success? |
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Post by majorminor on Feb 15, 2019 17:07:35 GMT -5
The new NAFTA? The one that's virtually identical to the old one, and that also has yet to be voted into effect? That's the only one so far, and it isn't even law yet. He's been unable to bully europe into breaking off the Iran deal--is that a trade success? I was actually referring to the import tariffs |
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Post by Cosmic Wonder on Feb 15, 2019 18:16:41 GMT -5
I may be dense, but I dont think tariffs qualify as a trade deal. More like a breakdown of a trade deal.
Mike
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Post by fauxmaha on Feb 15, 2019 18:49:06 GMT -5
From the day Trump announced, has a month gone by when the major narrative was anything other than "Well, THIS is the end of Trump!"? Not to blow my own horn, but: This Trump thing is real. For whatever reason, tens of millions of people are ready to say "fuck it" to the whole system. I don't really understand why, but I do know they are not going away. They can be beaten down, but they can not be "defeated". Whatever it is that Trump is tapping in to is not going away. The singular dysfunction I see in the Washington culture's response to Trump is to think that this any of this was ever about Trump. Trump is the symptom. He is not the thing. |
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Post by Chesapeake on Feb 15, 2019 19:09:03 GMT -5
From the day Trump announced, has a month gone by when the major narrative was anything other than "Well, THIS is the end of Trump!"? Not to blow my own horn, but: This Trump thing is real. For whatever reason, tens of millions of people are ready to say "fuck it" to the whole system. I don't really understand why, but I do know they are not going away. They can be beaten down, but they can not be "defeated". Whatever it is that Trump is tapping in to is not going away. The singular dysfunction I see in the Washington culture's response to Trump is to think that this any of this was ever about Trump. Trump is the symptom. He is not the thing. I think there is a lot of truth in what you say. He has tapped into a force in American politics to be reckoned with, and he's not the first populist politician to do so. I would just say in his case it's a shame that he is such a flawed champion. I acknowledged that his political demise has been routinely predicted. ["Trump's political demise has been predicted with regularity...."] But I account this as his his first serious setback. I think he's rattled by it, and he should be. |
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Post by aquaduct on Feb 15, 2019 19:15:09 GMT -5
It's funny to me that the only naysayers seem to be retired with no skin in the game.
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Post by brucemacneill on Feb 15, 2019 19:45:30 GMT -5
From the day Trump announced, has a month gone by when the major narrative was anything other than "Well, THIS is the end of Trump!"? Not to blow my own horn, but: The singular dysfunction I see in the Washington culture's response to Trump is to think that this any of this was ever about Trump. Trump is the symptom. He is not the thing. I think there is a lot of truth in what you say. He has tapped into a force in American politics to be reckoned with, and he's not the first populist politician to do so. I would just say in his case it's a shame that he is such a flawed champion. I acknowledged that his political demise has been routinely predicted. ["Trump's political demise has been predicted with regularity...."] But I account this as his his first serious setback. I think he's rattled by it, and he should be. If he was rattled I don't think he would have been so sarcastic answering the stupid media questions. I'm gonna do this and then we'll get sued in the 9th circuit and get a bad outcome and then we'll get an appellate court and get a bad outcome and then we'll get to the Supreme court, get a fair deal and probably win. He knows what's gonna happen and he probably will win in the Supreme court because of precedents set by his predecessors and previous congresses. You think he's dumb but he's just playing the game at a higher level than you are. |
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Post by timfarney on Feb 15, 2019 20:07:54 GMT -5
Trump is nowhere close to hitting bottom.
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Post by Chesapeake on Feb 15, 2019 21:21:26 GMT -5
Trump is nowhere close to hitting bottom. In my high-water metaphor, you're right. The tide has just started going out. It will be a long time before we see the bottom, but unless the sun, moon and stars go out of orbit (which is to say Trump stops being Trump), we'll see it. I don't see any other outcome. |
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Post by epaul on Feb 15, 2019 23:18:57 GMT -5
I will make a $50 bet, witnessed on this forum, with anyone who wishes, that if Trump's end run around congress makes it to the Supreme Court, it will be struck down; and Trump's two appointees will be part of the strong majority so voting.
I don't believe you could find a conservative justice who would sanctify such an bald-faced extension of presidential power. And I will put some skin in the game.
I can't believe any thoughtful conservative could be anything but disturbed by Trump's phony baloney emergency claim and his usurpation of constitutional congressional prerogative.
But, enough empty talk. $50 bucks. With as many here that are interested. We can send the money to Marty to hold. No way in hell would any court not call bullshit on this move of Trump's.
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Post by jdd2 on Feb 15, 2019 23:36:40 GMT -5
So you'll be taking any number of $50 bets?
Or just $50 in total?
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